Over half of the world’s coffee is at risk of extinction due to climate change, deforestation, disease and drought, according to a new study.
Researchers analyzed 124 species and found 75 species face the threat of extinction — with 13 considered critically endangered, 40 endangered and 22 classified as vulnerable. The findings were published in Science Advances and Global Change Biology.
“Overall, the fact that the extinction risk across all coffee species was so high — nearly 60 percent — that’s way above normal extinction risk figures for plants,” Aaron Davis, one of the study’s lead authors, told AFP.
For comparison, 6 percent of hazelnuts and 9 percent of pistachios face an extinction threat, in addition to about half of all wild tea and mango species.
More than two billion cups of coffee are consumed around the world every day. The global trade relies on two species, Arabica and Robusta, the only two wild coffee beans we drink and both of which were listed among the endangered species. But protecting and conserving the species not used for consumption is just as vital as they provide stability and diversity and could possibly serve as a genetic antidote against certain crop diseases.
“Some of the coffee species assessed have not been seen in the wild for more than 100 years and it is possible that some may already be extinct,” Eimear Nic Lughadha, another one of the study’s co-authors, said in a statement.
Arabica – which grows naturally in Ethiopia and South Sudan — accounts for 60 percent of the global multibillion-dollar industry, while Robusta accounts for 40.
In Ethiopia – Africa’s largest coffee producer – where the local coffee industry employs up to 15 million people, the threat is especially dire. Arabica crops could decline by 85 percent by 2080 with 60 percent the land used for coffee farming wiped out by the end of the century.
Researchers studied 40 years’ worth of climate data in the country and found that one-third of wild Arabica is grown outside protected conservation areas. This makes the species even more vulnerable to the effects of rising temperatures and deforestation. But the study noted that even current conservation efforts aren’t enough to keep the species protected.
“As a coffee drinker you don’t need to worry in the short term,” said Davis. “What we are saying is that in the long term if we don’t act now to preserve those key resources we don’t have a very bright future for coffee farming.”
The research was conducted with guidelines from the International Union for Conservation of Nature, the organization that publishes the global red list of threatened species.



