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Today 3 Up will be three things I think about the Yankees at the break. Tomorrow will be three things I think about the Mets.
1. Why do I suddenly feel better about the Yankee bullpen (their supposed problem) then the rotation (their supposed strength). We don’t know if Phil Hughes has the endurance for this late-inning role, but if he does, he in tandem with Mariano Rivera could give the Yanks their best late-inning 1-2 duo since Rivera and John Wetteland in 1996. Phil Coke is a good lefty reliever, but there is fear of overusing him so the Yanks could really use Damaso Marte to return. Alfredo Aceves is a valuable swing man in the Ramiro Mendoza ilk.
Meanwhile, with the rotation, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain seem spooked by pitching in the new bandbox in the Bronx. In addition, Pettitte is now showing the inconsistency of advancing baseball age as surely as Chamberlain is showing the inconsistency associated with youth. One of the great mysteries of the season is where did Chamberlain’s fastball go because he is no star in the making with a 90 mph fastball.
CC Sabathia has been a horse, but not someone who has helped the Yanks beat the best teams on their schedule. A.J. Burnett had a healthy, encouraging first half. But why do I still have such doubt about him? And what can be said about Chien-Ming Wang short of the first half being a disaster.
The Yanks will probably turn to Sergio Mitre to fill Wang’s spot in the rotation to open the second half. But beyond Mitre there is really no more help unless the Yanks are going to turn to Hughes or Aceves and weaken the pen while trying to rebuild their arms to have rotation endurance.
2. Despite missing the first five weeks of the season, Alex Rodriguez has 17 homers and 50 RBIs, and I do think he is going to be a 30-100 man for the 13th time in his career. That would be the most ever, breaking his current tie with Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx and Manny Ramirez (and, yes, I recognize how distorted these records feel now with people like A-Rod and Manny). He has the second-best homer percentage in the majors (100 plate appearances minimum), behind only Albert Pujols.
Will he get enough big hits to keep the home crowd cheering? If you are looking for encouraging signs, I would point to the 48 walks he has accrued. He has seemed much more willing to trust those behind him rather than to expand his zone. That is one way to defuse the tension; to trust those behind you in the lineup.
3. Are the Yankees just bullies? They obviously have two teams in their head: The Red Sox and Angels and are 2-12 against that duo this season. They lost a series to Philadelphia and won a series against the Tigers, the other current first-place team they have played this year. So that makes them 5-15 at the break against playoff teams and 46-22 against everyone else.
The Yanks open the second half against the Tigers. There are four games left against the Angels and 10 against Boston; and there is a late September stretch in which they play six straight against those two teams. Right now the Yanks are 0-8 against the Red Sox with 10 to play against their main rival. Imagine how it is going to feel if that number keeps expanding to 0-9, 0-10, 0-11.
At some point — to differentiate themselves from their recent past — these 2009 Yanks are going to have to show they can get hit in the jaw by an elite team and get back up. Those 14 games in the second half against Boston and the Angels is a place to keep track. A 7-7 record in those 14 games should be the minimum for the Yankees.
