1. I spoke to an executive whose team recently played the Tigers and he said something that intrigued me: “Forget repeating the Triple Crown, I think Miguel Cabrera has a chance to hit .400.”
At this moment, three of Cabrera’s teammates – Torii Hunter (.414), Austin Jackson (.393) and Prince Fielder (.383) – are challenging .400 while Cabrera was at .345. Also, Cabrera hardly fits the prototype imagined to chase .400, namely someone who could manufacture hits with his legs. Cabrera had seven infield hits last year or the same amount as the hobbled Alex Rodriguez. In addition, Cabrera has never hit above .344 yet.
But the executive mentioned a few elements that could raise Cabrera’s average toward .400. He now not only has Fielder hitting behind him, but Hunter in front of him. Detroit’s second-place hitters had a .313 on-base average last year, which was 20th in the majors. Fewer men on base makes it easier to work around Cabrera.
Mainly, though, the executive marveled at Cabrera’s ability not to fall into a power hitter’s trap of trying to over swing in attempts to build big homer numbers. In this way, the executive likened Cabrera to a great basketball scorer, able to generate points in any fashion – 3-pointers, lefty, righty, drives, hooks, etc. Cabrera works line to line with power, able to hit the ball effectively whoever he is pitched
“I don’t know that there is a definitive place you can go (with a pitch) and feel like he will not hit the ball hard,” the executive said. “He doesn’t get caught up in hitting homers. He will hit them when the pitch allows him to hit it. He not only is super talented, but a really smart hitter. He knows what you are trying to do against him. It just feels as if no one can hit the ball as consistently hard as often as him. Does that equal .400? I really think if things go well for him and he gets enough walks so his total at-bats are not that high, he can do it.”
I was curious enough about the subject that I posed it to Joe Girardi. He managed a young Cabrera and obviously knows him well trying to get him out with the Yankees.
Girardi also raved about Cabrera’s baseball intellect and said that what Cabrera loses in infield hits, he may make up for by having the sheer strength to muscle the ball over the infield for singles that would be outs for most others. “If anyone can do it, he can do it (hit .400),” Girardi said.
But Girardi just doesn’t think anyone can hit .400 for two main reasons: 1) The influx of talented, fresh, hard-throwing, diverse relievers make late-inning at-bats tougher than facing tiring starters. 2) More detailed, computer-generated sprays charts enable more precise defensive positioning.
Ted Williams hit .406 in 1941 – several years before Lou Boudreau famously created a shift specifically for him (although without the help of computers, obviously). And several decades before Tony La Russa, in particular, helped make matchup pens integral to the game.
There have been assaults on .400 since, notably by Rod Carew (1977), George Brett (1980), John Olerud (1993) and Tony Gwynn (1994). But there have been few significant assaults this century. And in the past three years, the only averages over even .340 were Josh Hamilton’s .359 in 2010 and Cabrera’s .344 in 2011. Bullpen strategy and defensive positioning have improved in this timeframe, and maybe this has something to do with the sterner drug testing, as well.
2. On Sunday I wrote this column about why I think this could become The Golden Age of the Trade – notably because so few quality players are getting to free agency and, thus, teams are going to be forced to find high-end talent elsewhere.
There was another item I wanted to get to, but could not because of space limitations. That is nothing will push more trades like success. And so far, so good – particularly for position players.
Of course, a proviso: It is a small sample size. But three of the best power hitters to date are John Buck, Mike Morse and Justin Upton – all obtained in trades in the offseason. Vernon Wells and Michael Young are proving more than salary dumps, and Chris Johnson (who came from Arizona in the same deal that brought Upton to the Braves) more than a throw in. Jed Lowrie and Shin-Soo Choo have been brilliant producers, so far. Jose Reyes was excelling before going down with a severe ankle injury.
If you want to set the clock back to during last season then you also have Milwaukee’s Jean Segura, obtained in July for Zack Greinke, flirting with .400, and Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, acquired last August by the Dodgers, paying dividends now.
3. I wrote this column for today’s paper about the meaning/grandeur of Patriots Day In Boston and my hopes that the Yankees play in Boston on that date next year. Nothing more to add, just that – and that my thoughts continue to be with that city as it heals.
