Fantasy baseball owners feel like Jerry Seinfeld right now in the episode when Jerry thinks his girlfriend has implants. She insists “they’re real and they’re spectacular.”
Fantasy players are trying to figure out after almost one month if players off to fast starts are real or fake, like the 2006 version of Chris Shelton, who hit 10 home runs in the first month of the season and finished with 16.
Here are some players to examine and see if their start is real:
Matt Moore, Rays
Moore has been overrated in fantasy during his career — his high walk rate leads to a high WHIP. In the spring, he cut down on the walks, and it has continued in April.
Moore has a 5.4 percent walk rate, well below his career average of 10.3 percent. That is the key for his success. He is averaging 93 mph with his fastball, his highest mark since 2012, and the 27.1 percent strikeout rate is close to what we saw from him in his first couple of seasons.
Moore has a 3.66 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP and the lack of offensive support is the only thing holding him back. Moore is for real.
Mat Latos, White Sox
Latos was ignored in most drafts, but he is 4-0 with a 0.74 ERA and 0.82 WHIP, so you should want him, right? Latos is getting lucky. The 89.5 mph average on his fastball is the lowest of his career. His 4.8 K/9 is terrible, his .167 batting average on balls in play is going to rise, his 96.9 percent strand rate is going to drop, and his 5.3 percent swinging strike rate means a lot of balls are being put into play. This start is fake. A steep fall is coming.
Mike Moustakas, Royals
The third baseman is batting .275 with 11 runs, seven home runs, 11 RBIs and an OPS of .941. Moustakas has improved his contact and walk rates again, continues to go opposite field more and has a high 41.7 percent hard hit rate. He is real, and spectacular. Invest.
Yasmany Tomas, Diamondbacks
After hitting just nine home runs last season, Tomas is showing power. He is batting .288 with 16 runs, five home runs, 12 RBIs and an .896 OPS. Tomas has increased his fly ball percentage from 23.2 percent to 32.8 percent and has a hard hit percentage of 37.8 percent. Tomas is for real. Get him cheaply while you can.
Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers
The move to the tougher American League was thought to have been a negative for Zimmermann, but he is 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Zimmermann has a 5.54 K/9, 89.7 percent strand rate and a 6.8 percent swinging strike rate. Zimmermann is a good pitcher who provides 200 quality innings, but if someone will pay elite-pitcher prices, don’t hesitate to move him.
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