Part of the big-picture plan for the Yankees — to get younger, more athletic and more financially flexible — has been to run out big contracts: Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira after this season, and Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia after next.
But I believe it is becoming more likely that Beltran is actually back in 2017.
Yankees ownership is ardently against selling. That could change in the next 5½ weeks if the team plummets further below .500, which is conceivable considering the Yankees were tied for the fourth-worst run differential in the AL and were 18-25 against above-.500 clubs.
In a sell scenario, Beltran would be perhaps the most interesting bat available.
Should the Yankees, however, maintain a flirtation with .500 and semi-contention, they probably will imitate 2013-14, when they refused to surrender despite defective rosters. That would mean retaining their best hitter. And if Beltran is on the Yankees at 4:01 p.m. Aug. 1, then his chances of being a 2017 Yankee climb also.
Because why would the Yankees not put the qualifying offer on him?
The one big “if” is health, and Beltran is 39 and recently had to have one of his damaged knees drained. But if the first 45 percent of this season indicates what is to come and Beltran finishes at, say, 35 homers and 100 RBIs, again, why wouldn’t the Yankees qualify him?
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The qualifying dollar figure is not finalized yet, but it is expected to be between $16.5 million and $17 million (up from $15.8 million last offseason). Beltran makes $15 million now. If he were a free agent and willing to take just a one-year contract, he likely would get in that range after this season.
You could, for example, imagine the Red Sox replacing the retiring David Ortiz with Beltran and just giving him the same $16 million Ortiz is making this year.
David OrtizGetty ImagesBut if Beltran were a qualified free agent, would Boston or any team ink him? Because a signing club would have to lose a first- or second-round pick plus give a good salary to a player who turns 40 in April and really should be a full-time DH now. Recent history suggests Beltran would have difficulty finding a market in that situation.
But even if a team were willing to sign Beltran as a qualified free agent, that would be a victory for the Yankees because they would receive a compensation sandwich pick between the first and second rounds in the June 2017 draft.
If Beltran were to anticipate no club would be willing to do that and/or he prefers staying, he accepts the qualifying bid — and the Yankees are still fine. They get their most productive hitter back, but his old contract language goes away and he is on a one-year deal without no-trade provisions. That gives the Yankees more flexibility.
Alex RodriguezGetty ImagesThe question the Yankees would have is whether this was a good use of a roster spot and roughly $17 million for next year. If they are trying to win in 2017 — and as the Yankees are showing now with their steadfast refusal to consider selling, they are always trying to win — a healthy Beltran would have a role.
For it is growing harder to believe A-Rod makes it through next season on the roster. If the Yankees eat Rodriguez’s 2017 salary, Beltran fills his proper role as mainly a DH, which would allow the Yankees to consider some combination of Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge and Rob Refsnyder — or an acquisition — in right field.
There is a long way to go to determine all of this, but these are factors the Yankees must weigh between now and the Aug. 1 trade deadline when it comes to Beltran.



