We’re constantly looking for the next big thing — whether it’s a hot new gadget, a new artist or even the newest show to stream on Netflix — and we’re always looking to be first with this information.
It’s no different when searching for a fantasy pitcher on the brink of a breakout. So, we look at the players’ track records (even if small) — how they improved the year before even when not much was expected or, maybe, if they had a change in scenery that could be beneficial.
Take San Diego’s Dinelson Lamet (246.10 average draft position and $3 auction value, according to Fantasy Alarm), for example. After his first nine starts last season, he was 3-4 with a 6.40 ERA. Sure, he struck out 62 over 45 innings and had opponents hitting just .229, but he also allowed 11 homers in those starts and allowed three runs or more five times.
Over his final 12 starts, however, Lamet gained some momentum. He allowed three runs or more just three times while going 4-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 69 ¹/₃ innings. He also allowed just seven longballs and held opponents to a .197 average.
Though he had trouble with left-handed hitters (.263) all season, he dominated right-handed hitters (.155), consistently hit the mid-to-upper 90s with his fastball and plays his home games at Petco Park, where the second fewest runs per game were scored last year. Though he’s not at fantasy ace level yet, he should be able to take a bigger step this season — and he won’t cost you an arm or a leg.
Here’s a look at some other potential breakouts:
Zack Godley (109.86, $7) was 8-9 with a 3.37 ERA, but was ranked in the top 10 in groundball rate (55.3 percent) and swinging strike percentage (13.3 percent), and in the top 20 in strikeouts per nine innings (9.58). An added bonus for Godley (and the entire Diamondbacks staff) is the fact a humidor has been installed at Chase Field, which should cut down on the homers at the hitter-haven. Arizona also has a solid, young squad with a great pitching staff. Godley is in a great spot to be this year’s Robbie Ray (albeit drafted slightly higher than Ray).
The Reds’ Luis Castillo (119.38, $5) pitched in just 15 games last season, but there was plenty to drool over in his 89 ¹/₃ innings. Not only does he sport a fastball that averages 98 mph, but he allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of his 15 starts, struck out 9.9 per nine innings, had a solid ground-ball rate (58.8 percent) and held opposing hitters to a .202 average (lefties hit .185 against him). It’s a small sample size, but after pitching 169 ²/₃ innings between the majors and minors last season, he looks to be ready to pitch a full year for the Reds and won’t break the bank.
Cubs starter Tyler ChatwoodGetty ImagesTyler Chatwood (294.10, $5) of the Cubs has never been a sexy name when it comes to fantasy. He has a career 40-46 record with a 4.31 ERA and 1.485 WHIP. He also strikes out just 6.1 per nine innings, despite throwing 92-94 mph, and walks too many (4.17 per nine innings), but he does have a solid ground-ball rate (54.7 percent). The problem with the 28-year-old, outside on injuries, always had been pitching at Coors Field, where you could hit a medicine ball out of the park with a loose thread from your sweater. He’s 19-29 with a 5.25 ERA over 68 games (59 starts) in Colorado, while going 21-17 with a 3.31 ERA outside of the Rockies’ hitter-friendly stadium. His home now is Wrigley Field, where he is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in two career starts (small sample size, of course), and he is on a team that should offer tons of run support.
Some other young arms who potentially could have breakout seasons include Yankees left-hander Jordan Montgomery (281.02, $3) and the Angels’ 29-year-old Garrett Richards (217.05, $7), who has immense talent (and a 96 mph fastball), but has been limited to just 12 starts over the past two seasons.
Starting pitchers
1. Clayton Kershaw LAD
2. Chris Sale BOS
3. Max Scherzer WAS
4. Corey Kluber CLE
5. Noah Syndergaard NYM
6. Stephen Strasburg WAS
7. Madison Bumgarner SF
8. Carlos Carrasco CLE
9. Justin Verlander HOU
10. Luis Severino NYY
11. Jacob deGrom NYM
12. Zack Greinke ARI
13. Yu Darvish CHC
14. James Paxton SEA
15. Robbie Ray ARI
16. Chris Archer TB
17. Jose Quintana CHC
18. Aaron Nola PHI
19. Carlos Martinez STL
20. Shohei Otani LAA
21. Dallas Keuchel HOU
22. Masahiro Tanaka NYY
23. David Price BOS
24. Rich Hill LAD
25. Jake Arrieta FA
Jake ArrietaGetty Images26. Gerrit Cole HOU
27. Jon Lester CHC
28. Danny Salazar CLE
29. Jeff Samardzija SF
30. Kyle Hendricks CHC
31. Lance McCullers HOU
32. Alex Wood LAD
33. Trevor Bauer CLE
34. Luis Castillo CIN
35. Luke Weaver STL
36. Charlie Morton HOU
37. Zack Godley ARI
38. Kenta Maeda LAD
39. Gio Gonzalez WAS
40. Johnny Cueto SF
41. Marcus Stroman TOR
42. Sonny Gray NYY
43. Drew Pomeranz BOS
44. Danny Duffy KC
45. Jose Berrios MIN
46. Jon Gray COL
47. Michael Fulmer DET
48. Dinelson Lamet SD
49. Jameson Taillon PIT
50. Rick Porcello BOS
51. Lance Lynn FA
52. Garrett Richards LAA
53. Blake Snell TB
54. J.A. Happ TOR
55. Michael Wacha STL
56. Taijuan Walker ARI
57. Cole Hamels TEX
58. Miles Mikolas STL
59. Ervin Santana MIN
60. Kevin Gausman BAL
61. Chase Anderson MIL
62. Joe Musgrove PIT
63. Sean Manaea OAK
64. Alex Reyes STL
65. Tanner Roark WAS
66. Dylan Bundy BAL
67. Brad Peacock HOU
68. Jacob Faria TB
69. Mike Leake SEA
70. Patrick Corbin ARI
71. Marco Estrada TOR
72. Mike Clevinger CLE
73. Mike Minor TEX
74. Sean Newcomb ATL
75. Julio Teheran ATL
Julio TeheranN.Y. Post: Charles Wenzelberg76. Jake Odorizzi MIN
77. Ivan Nova PIT
78. Matt Shoemaker LAA
79. Dan Straily MIA
80. Aaron Sanchez TOR
81. Alex Cobb FA
82. Tyler Glasnow PIT
83. Luiz Gohara ATL
84. Jordan Montgomery NYY
85. Tyler Skaggs LAA
86. Eduardo Rodriguez BOS
87. Matt Andriese TB
88. Jimmy Nelson MIL
89. Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD
90. Jerad Eickhoff PHI
91. Lucas Giolito CWS
92. Jake Junis KC
93. Zach Davies MIL
94. Colin McHugh HOU
95. Vincent Vaelasquez PHI
96. CC Sabathia NYY
97. Josh Tomlin CLE
98. German Marquez COL
99. Jharel Cotton OAK
100. Steven Matz NYM
101. Nick Pivetta PHI
102. Tyler Chatwood CHC
103. Nate Karns KC
104. Carlos Rodon CWS
105. Matt Harvey NYM
106. Andrew Heaney LAA
107. Mike Foltynewicz ATL
108. Jhoulys Chacin MIL
109. Clayton Richard SD
110. Ian Kennedy KC
111. Erasmo Ramirez SEA
112. Jason Hammel KC
113. Nathan Eovaldi TB
114. Adam Wainwright STL
115. Anthony DeSclafani CIN
116. Chad Kuhl PIT
117. Michael Kopech CWS
118. Mike Montgomery CHC
119. Kyle Gibson MIN
120. Jack Flaherty STL
Team Name of the Week
Naquin and Afraid



