Over the past several years, fantasy baseball players have been in a panic over stolen bases. The great decline first began in 2013, when we witnessed close to a 600-steal decline from the previous season, and steals have steadily dipped even further over the past seven years.
Analysts have subsequently drilled it into your heads that this is a category you need to attack early in drafts, and without being competitive in the category, you can kiss your championship dreams goodbye.
This season, however, stolen bases are seemingly on the rise. There were 303 stolen bases in the month of April, and that number jumped to 435 in May, putting the league on pace for more than 2,400 steals for the first time since 2018.
Ronald Acuna Jr. Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images
Last month, 21 players stole at least five bases, compared to just 12 in May 2021 and just 15 in 2019. And now, entering this weekend, we were already close to 140 steals for June, which means we are, again, on-pace for more than 400 this month. But before we get too comfortable, we have to ask ourselves if this increase in steals will continue.
The short answer is no. It seems unlikely to continue, and the fact June steals are already on pace to be lower than May’s should be very telling. Managerial concerns over the lack of offense we witnessed in April are not as intense now as they were before.
The league-wide slash line in April was just .231/.307/.369. In May, that jumped to .246/.313/.398 with over 300 more home runs hit than the prior month. The early power trends in June reveal another potential increase, so with power back on the table, fewer managers are giving the green light for fear of running themselves out of a potential big inning.
It is easy to get caught up in hearing how Ronald Acuña is stealing bases again and how youngsters like Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodriguez are rekindling the speed element to the game, but you need to temper your enthusiasm. Keep monitoring the totals for June, and should they continue to fall short of what we had in May, you’ll know to keep your foot on the gas regarding how you attack speed.
The category is traditionally a volatile one, so be careful in thinking you have it covered. The more we see a power increase, the more likely we will see another dismal season for stolen bases.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball advice.
