Some folks play golf, others collect stamps or relax with needlepoint.

My hobby?

I think about the Hall of Fame. A lot. Especially during a week like this last one, when MLB awards were announced. It will be years before my writing brethren will receive a ballot with any of the 2022 honorees on it. But for me, these are akin to primaries. This is information gathering in the run-up to elections. I enjoy the mental exercise of asking myself, routinely, if I am watching a Hall of Famer in real time. Awards provide another element to consider.

For these purposes, let’s not include Rookie of the Year since there is so little track record. Consider that Mariners outfielder Kyle Lewis won AL Rookie of the Year in the COVID-shortened 2020 season and has regressed enough since that he was traded Thursday to the Diamondbacks. So while I think much more, for example, of another Seattle outfielder, Julio Rodriguez, who won the AL Rookie of the Year last week, let’s table discussions about him and the Braves’ Michael Harris II for a future date.

I also am going to eliminate Cy Young because Justin Verlander was pretty much a Hall lock before winning his third Cy (but for debate purposes, better career: Verlander versus John Smoltz, go). Meanwhile, it is still early enough in Sandy Alcantara’s career as to make long-term calculus difficult. He might be Ubaldo Jimenez, a comet who flew high but burned out quickly, or he might be Verlander 2.0, the elite workhorse ace of his generation.

So let’s focus instead on the MVPs and Managers of the Year — though the Baseball Writers Association of America does not vote upon managers for the Hall:

Aaron Judge is still three years shy of the minimum of playing in 10 seasons simply to be eligible for the ballot. But already his 62-homer season and first MVP Award all but assure he will make the ballot (which is an accomplishment, too). At this moment, he has coincidental commonality with Roger Maris, whose Yankees homer record Judge broke. Maris, like Judge, was an all-around outstanding right fielder. Maris actually had the MLB homer record with his 61 in 1961, when he won his second AL MVP. Judge has a first and a second in MVP voting.

Maris lasted at that time the maximum 15 years on the ballot, peaking in his last season at 43.1 percent. Judge got a late career start, with his first full season at 25. His ultimate Hall candidacy, therefore, will include many factors, but my read is it will be about homers and hardware. For example, 500 homers and a second MVP might make him a lock.

Just to demonstrate how the homer ticker can change, through 2021, Judge had 158 career homers, which tied him for 199th though his age-29 season with Cesar Cedeno, one behind Edwin Encarnacion, Howard Johnson and Rusty Staub. Sixty-two homers later, Judge has 220 in his career, which puts him 102nd all-time through an age-30 season, one ahead of Joe DiMaggio and one behind Jeff Bagwell (Anthony Rizzo is at 229, by the way).

Bagwell, who is a Hall of Famer, is an interesting comparison. He has won Rookie of the Year and MVP, just like Judge. Bagwell also had a second and third in MVP voting and finished with 449 homers. Besides the 2022 MVP, Judge also has a second and fourth. Judge already has matched Bagwell in Silver Sluggers, with three. If Judge can mimic Bagwell’s excellent age 31-36 outputs, he will have a case similar to Bagwell’s.

The NL MVP winner, Paul Goldschmidt, also compares to Bagwell, down to the fact both were athletic enough to be fine base-stealing first basemen. Goldschmidt has five other top-six MVP finishes, five Silver Sluggers and four Gold Gloves. Bagwell had one Gold Glove and was a far worse postseason performer than Goldschmidt. Wins Above Replacement particularly loved Bagwell, who was at 71.8 through age-34 and 79.9 for his career (Baseball Reference). Goldschmidt is 58.5, but coming off his best season (7.8). Three more, say, 5.0 WAR seasons would really elevate Goldschmidt’s candidacy.

Terry Francona likely already had Cooperstown sealed with two World Series wins and two Manager of the Year awards. The third this season in guiding the Guardians only burnishes his credentials.

Buck Showalter will be a fascinating case. He joined Hall of Famers Bobby Cox and Tony La Russa as the only four-time Manager of the Year winner. But none of Showalter’s teams have even won the pennant.

La Russa and Cox are among the eight winningest managers in history. All of those managers have won at least one World Series and all are in the Hall of Fame. The ninth-winningest manager is Dusty Baker, whose championship this season probably stamped him for Cooperstown. Tenth and 11th are Walter Alston and Leo Durocher. Both won titles and are in the Hall.

Bruce Bochy is 12th. He just returned to manage the Rangers and almost certainly will jump Alston and Durocher into the top 10 in managerial wins in 2023. But with three championships already, he is near certain to be elected to the Hall. No. 13, Casey Stengel, won seven World Series as a manager and is in Cooperstown. At No. 14 is Gene Mauch. Now that Baker has captured the title, Mauch is the manager with the most victories never to win a championship. He is not in the Hall of Fame.

Bill McKechnie, at No 15, is a two-time champion and is in the Hall. No. 16 is Francona, who will likely make the Hall. Nos. 17, 18 and 19 are Jim Leyland, Lou Piniella and Showalter. That Leyland and Piniella have not made it to the Hall with one title does not bode well for Showalter, who now trails just Mauch for most wins without a championship. Piniella has much in common with Baker — an above-average, but not great playing career who then had a success with multiple franchises as a manager, with one World Series win. That Piniella, with a strong major league playing career, success with multiple teams and a managing title, is not in Cooperstown bodes poorly for Showalter, who never played in the majors and has had success with multiple teams, but no championship.

It means that Showalter probably needs to win a title to make the Hall.