Life is filled with disappointments, like failing a test you thought you did well on, or finding out your boyfriend/girlfriend is cheating on you, or finding out Ben Affleck was cast as Batman.
In fantasy, there is nothing worse than drafting a player with high expectations only to have them fall flat (think Yasiel Puig in 2015 or Jason Heyward in, well, pretty much every year since 2010). Roto Files is here to help you try to avoid the busts in 2015.
Rays outfielder Corey Dickerson is a career .299 hitter with 39 homers, 124 RBIs and a .879 OPS in 265 games. Though limited to just 65 games after his 2014 breakout campaign, the 26-year-old hit .304 with 10 homers, 31 RBIs and a .869 OPS. Solid numbers for a guy with a 122.3 average draft position, according to Fantasypros.com, right? Wrong!
Dickerson’s value is as distorted as your reflection in a funhouse mirror because he played almost half his games at Coors Field, a magical place where the air is thin and above-average players become statistical superstars.
In 122 games at Coors Field, Dickerson has a .355/.410/.675 slash line, a ridiculous 1.085 OPS, 24 homers and 78 RBIs.
Carlos GonzalezAPIn 143 games outside of Colorado, he has a .249/.286/.410 slash line with a .695 OPS, 15 homers and 46 RBIs. Unless Tampa Bay works out a deal to play all of their games at Coors Field, you’re looking at a player who will face the harsh reality of life outside of Colorado.
Carlos Gonzalez (52.8 ADP) hit .271 with a career-high 40 homers, 97 RBIs and a .864 OPS, while staying healthy and playing in a career-high 153 games (his highest total since 2012). Though that boosted his value, his past injuries should keep you cautious — as should the never-ending rumors he will be traded, which would really hurt his value (.324 hitter at Coors, .255 hitter away).
In 2012, Jason Kipnis (86.0) hit a career-high .303 last season (he’s a career .284 hitter), but was aided by an unsustainable .356 BaBIP. He no longer hits for power (nine homers) after hitting 14 and 17 in 2012 and 2013, respectively.
Jason KipnisPaul J. BereswillHe doesn’t run like he used to, stealing just 12 bases in 2015 after stealing 83 from 2012-14. There are other options out there, like Anthony Rendon (95.8), Kolten Wong (129.0) and Daniel Murphy (157.0), who will give you more bang for your buck.
Zack Greinke (33.0) is not going to maintain that sterling 1.66 ERA in a hitter’s haven like Chase Field. With a 2.76 FIP and .232 BaBIP, he got lucky last year. Be prepared to have a wonderful pitcher, just not one who will be among the top 15 in the league.
Team name of the week
Sly and the Family Chone
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