If this year’s crop of outfielders were an old unfamiliar dirt road, you already would have seen a wooden sign posted saying, “BEWARE: BRIDGE OUT.”
Outfield gets shallow very quickly in 2016. If your league requires just three starting outfielders, you won’t feel the effect as strongly, but if you play in a traditional rotisserie league, with five outfielder spots, you’re going to find yourself sifting through part-time and platoon players if you wait too long.
You can thank the dearth of usable outfielders on several factors. Players like Yasmany Tomas are “stashed” in the outfield, inviting either a straight platoon or a late-game defensive replacement. Avisail Garcia — who had high hopes for a 2016 breakout — is now pushed into a platoon role for the foreseeable future thanks to the White Sox signing Austin Jackson. Jorge Soler likely is facing a similar fate across town with the addition of Dexter Fowler. The Yankees have two extra outfielders in the mix for playing time. Nobody knows what kind of playing time to expect for Yasiel Puig, even without a looming suspension.
You get the picture. So here is your 2016 outfield mantra: Beware of the tier dropoffs. Because once you hit Domingo Santana territory, you may find yourself like Wile E. Coyote as he chases the Roadrunner off a mountainside — standing on air and about to experience a hard fall.
Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are studs and should be off the board within the first three picks of any draft. Giancarlo Stanton has legitimate 50-homer potential. The top options are no-brainers. It’s what you do after that may determine how good your team looks as you walk out of your draft room.
My favorite early-round sleeper is George Springer. What he managed to do in an injury-marred rookie season (102 games played) is getting overlooked by most drafters: 16 home runs, 16 steals, and a .276 batting average. Springer is primed to flirt with a 30/30 season (and possibly surpass that), and can rack up plenty of runs and RBI in a stacked Astros lineup.
I understand the attraction to A.J Pollock (.315 average, 20 home runs, 39 steals in 2015) for most drafters, but Charlie Blackmon (.287, 17 home runs, 43 steals in 2015) could put up a line very similar, and can be had later in the draft. The catch with Blackmon is he won’t have the same RBI and runs-scored numbers as Pollock, who is in a far superior offensive lineup.
For lack of a better term, there is a very boring tier in the middle rounds — which includes J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Jason Heyward, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun. Don’t be turned off by their milquetoast nature — these are players who can help a fantasy team. You generally don’t get excited by drafting Nelson Cruz, but you tend to appreciate him at the end of the season.
Though plenty of sleeper candidates were wiped out by the aforementioned spring moves, the lower tiers of outfielders contain plenty of hope. Domingo Santana has legitimate power and looks to have full-time at-bats. Wil Myers (playing first base) finally may reach the potential he was tapped for several years ago as a Kansas City prospect. Marcell Ozuna can contribute across several categories. Joc Pederson — who is plummeting down draft boards with a ho-hum spring — has a minor league track record that suggests he could be a .300-hitting 30/30 threat.
For owners in deeper leagues, Dustin Ackley could get close to 400 at-bats. Will Venable may be a pleasant surprise in Cleveland. Peter Bourjos is younger than you may realize and looks like he will be a starter in Philadelphia. And I still think Leonys Martin has plenty of speed and run-scoring potential in his new Seattle home.
We all know that shortstop begins shallow and slowly teeters off, but outfield — which historically has been full of value — drops off quickly and violently. Attack the position in the early and middle rounds and you should be slightly ahead of the game when it all wraps up.
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Fantasy Spring
Outfielder rankings by FNTSY’s Nando Di Fino of the Fantasy Sports Network (FNTSY).
Starting pitchers
Rank Player Team
1. Bryce Harper Was
2. Mike Trout LAA
3. Giancarlo Stanton Mia
4. George Springer Hou
5. A.J. Pollock Ari
6. Jose Bautista Tor
7. Starling Marte Pit
8. Carlos Gomez Hou
9. Andrew McCutchen Pit
10. Charlie Blackmon Col
11. Mookie Betts Bos
12. Chris Davis Bal
13. Justin Upton Det
14. Adam Jones Bal
15. J.D. Martinez Det
16. Carlos Gonzalez Col
17. Yoenis Cespedes NYM
18. Yasiel Puig LAD
19. Nelson Cruz Sea
20. Gregory Polanco Pit
21. Ryan Braun Mil
22. Hanley Ramirez Bos
23. Corey Dickerson TB
24. Joc Pederson LAD
25. Hunter Pence SF
26. Khris Davis Oak
27. David Peralta Ari
28. Billy Hamilton Cin
29. Shin-Soo Choo Tex
30. Adam Eaton CWS
31. Jacoby Ellsbury NYY
32. Matt Kemp SD
33. Mark Trumbo Bal
34. Lorenzo Cain KC
35. Ben Revere Was
36. Wil Myers SD
37. Domingo Santana Mil
38. Delino DeShields Tex
39. Jay Bruce Cin
40. Michael Conforto NYM
41. Curtis Granderson NYM
42. Dexter Fowler ChC
43. Alex Gordon KC
44. Steven Souza TB
45. Evan Gattis Hou
46. Byron Buxton Min
47. Denard Span SF
48. Melky Cabrera CWS
49. Jackie Bradley Jr. Bos
50. Aaron Hicks NYY
Top outfield prospects
1. Byron Buxton Min
2. Joey Gallo Tex
3. Brett Phillips Mil
4. David Dahl Col
5. Jesse Winker Cin
