Before you click “draft” or scream out your pick’s name for everyone in the room to hear, make sure you ask yourself these two questions: Is this player worth being taken in this spot? Are better options available?
Joey Gallo was one of five players to hit 40 or more homers last season (Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, J.D. Martinez and Khris Davis were the others). He had the third-highest average exit velocity (94.0), his homers traveled an average of 422.2 feet and his .372 isolated power trailed just Stanton and Judge. He also had an elite walk percentage (14.1 percent) and a 30.1 home run to flyball rate.
As impressive as all that may be, Gallo also had the majors’ second-highest strike out rate (36.8 percent), ranked 82nd in on-base percentage (.333) and had a record-low contact rate (56.3 percent). He also finished with a 19.2 swinging strike percentage, the worst among qualified hitters, and a .209 average, which ranked 141st among qualified hitters.
As of Friday, Gallo was being drafted as a top-100 player with an average draft position of 97.22, according to Fantasy Alarm, and was going for $9 in 12-team leagues. For someone with such a lack of discipline at the plate, his ADP seems quite high.
Gallo is a streaky hitter who has the ability to seduce you with his power, but what are you truly gaining by drafting him over, say, Matt Olson, Carlos Santana or Greg Bird, all of whom are available about 50 spots later? Maybe 10-12 homers? A few more stolen bases? A batting average about 20-40 points lower? Is that worth it? No way!
It is tough enough drafting a balanced roster without the gaping hole Gallo will leave in your team’s batting average. There is plenty of depth and power at first base throughout the draft, so there is no need to jump on Gallo, not when he is being drafted in a spot where you could take players like Roberto Osuna, Corey Knebel, Masahiro Tanaka, Eric Hosmer, Rougned Odor or Sonny Gray.
Gallo is a risk you should let someone else take.
Here is a look at some other players worth it and others who are not:
Rhys HoskinsAPWorth it: Rhys Hoskins (43.47, $18) showed he has power (18 homers in his first 34 games), but he also showed discipline. The 24-year-old is a building block for the Phillies, and he should be for you, too.
Not worth it: Not only is Miguel Cabrera (75.44, $24) coming off the worst statistical season of his career, the soon-to-be 35-year-old had back issues last season and is playing on a team in rebuild mode.
Worth it: Moving to homer-haven Citizens Bank Park should be great for Carlos Santana (143.44, $11), who hit .249 while averaging 24 homers, 81 RBIs and 79 runs over the past seven seasons in Cleveland.
Not worth it: They say lightning never strikes twice, and it seems hard to believe it is going to start with a 32-year-old Ryan Zimmerman (143.72, $14).
Worth it: Consider Oakland’s Matt Olson (147.47, $11) the poor man’s Hoskins, who walks less and strikes out a little more.
Worth it: If Greg Bird (152.59, $16) can stay healthy, hitting behind/between Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius and Gary Sanchez certainly will not hurt.
Worth it: Baltimore’s Trey Mancini (167.84, $16) is an affordable player capable of hitting for average and power, and he is eligible at multiple positions.
Worth it: Pittsburgh’s Josh Bell (185.03, $9) set a record for homers by a switch-hitting rookie (26), but he got stronger in the second half (.274, 10 HR, 46 RBI) after a mediocre first half (.239, 16, 44 RBI).
Not worth it: Eric Hosmer (102.13, $14) has been consistent over the past three seasons, hitting .297 and averaging 23 homers, 97 RBIs and 92 runs scored, but the move to San Diego feels like it could do more harm than good.
Not worth it: The price for Milwaukee’s Eric Thames (219.13, $7) seems about right, but it is hard to trust a guy who did most of his damage in his first 63 games (.269, 20 HR, 38 RBI) and faded into oblivion when he was needed most.
Three players with ADPs above 220 who are worthy of being considered include Miami’s Justin Bour (225.75, $6), Minnesota’s Logan Morrison (281.47, $4) and Colorado’s Ryan McMahon (327.38, $3) — who is crushing it this spring while battling for the first-base gig on a team that is never short of offense because it plays in a stadium where you could hit a cotton ball out of the park with a toothpick.
Guide to Insanity
Part 4 of 5: The Roto Rage Jarad Wilk ranks corner infielders. Next week: outfielders
First base
1. Paul Goldschmidt ARI
2. Joey Votto CIN
3. Anthony Rizzo CHC
4. Cody Bellinger LAD
5. Freddie Freeman ATL
6. Jose Abreu CWS
7. Edwin Encarnacion CLE
8. Rhys Hoskins PHI
9. Carlos Santana PHI
10. Matt Olson OAK
11. Eric Hosmer SD
12. Justin Smoak TOR
13. Greg Bird NYY
14. Wil Myers SD
15. Trey Mancini BAL
16. Josh Bell PIT
17. Miguel Cabrera DET
18. Joey Gallo TEX
19. Justin Bour MIA
20. Ryan Zimmerman WAS
21. Yonder Alonso CLE
22. Matt Carpenter STL
23. Ryan McMahon COL
24. Brandon Belt SF
25. Kendrys Morales TOR
26. Logan Morrison MIN
27. Chris Davis BAL
28. Yulieski Gurriel HOU
29. Albert Pujols LAA
30. Hanley Ramirez BOS
31. C.J. Cron TB
32. Lucas Duda KC
33. Joe Mauer MIN
34. Colin Moran PIT
35. Mitch Moreland BOS
Third base
1. Nolan Arenado COL
2. Kris Bryant CHC
3. Manny Machado BAL
4. Josh Donaldson TOR
5. Anthony Rendon WAS
6. Jose Ramirez CLE
7. Alex Bregman HOU
8. Justin Turner LAD
9. Nick Catellanos DET
10. Kyle Seager SEA
11. Travis Shaw MIL
12. Rafael Devers BOS
13. Jake Lamb ARI
14. Mike Moustakas KC
15. Adrian Beltre TEX
16. Miguel Sano MIN
17. Evan Longoria SF
18. Eugenio Suarez CIN
19. Maikel Franco PHI
20. Todd Frazier NYM
21. Ryon Healy SEA
22. Matt Chapman OAK
23. Jedd Gyorko STL
24. Eduardo Nunez BOS
25. Chase Headley SD
26. Jeimer Candelario DET
27. J.P. Crawford PHI
28. Wilmer Flores NYM
29. Nick Senzel CIN
30. Martin Prado MIA
31. Miguel Andujar NYY
32. Hernan Perez MIL
33. Matt Davidson CWS
34. Derek Dietrich MIA
35. Eduardo Escobar MIN
Team Name of the Week
Ohtani and Clyde
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