As the second half of the MLB season gets underway, fantasy baseball owners in search of a championship are diligently trying to adjust their rosters in the hope of climbing up the ranks, or at least maintaining their places atop the standings.
Deciding who stays and who goes can be tricky, as several players have earned your trust with strong first-half performances, yet you question whether their performance is sustainable. Is there more or have you maxed out their usefulness? Seasoned veterans offer you statistical insight and others put your analysis and gut feelings to the test.
Given the way pitching has dominated the fantasy world this season, the best place to start is your rotation. Studs like Max Scherzer are easy to stick with, but many of the young arms will require your attention. In this era of pitch counts and innings limits, you have to be prepared for pitchers to either wear down from usage or be shut down for protection.
Mariners lefty James Paxton immediately comes to mind. He never has thrown more than 170 innings in a season and has a lengthy injury history. His numbers may be strong — 3.70 ERA with a 4.70 K/BB — but with Seattle in contention for a playoff spot, it is unlikely they will push him too hard during the second half in the hope of preserving his arm for the home stretch. Skipped starts and extra rest may be in order, and though that helps the team in reality, your fantasy squad could suffer.
Teams with little chance of making the playoffs are more likely to shut down their youngsters as they look towards 2019. Rising stars such as Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell, Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb have never thrown more than 160 innings in a season, and none of their clubs want to push them beyond the standard 20- to 30-inning annual increase. This isn’t to say they won’t pitch well in the second half, just maybe not as often as fantasy owners need.
On the offensive front, we have to be careful with players who have overachieved. The Dodgers’ Max Muncy certainly comes to mind as an unproven full-season producer, but there are others who need to be watched very carefully. Names like Albert Almora may be easy to identify, but based on history, players such as Trevor Story, Eugenio Suarez and Matt Kemp should be watched, as their peripheral numbers seem askew from their career totals.
Team evaluation is crucial at this time. You don’t have to panic and trade away these players immediately, but the longer you hold them, the more risk you take on. Baseball is ebb and flow so you don’t want to get caught when the tide goes out.
Howard Bender is the VP of operations and head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy sports advice, MLB lineups and DFS weather updates.
