There were the Philadelphia 76ers in a Game 7 against the Celtics last week, one victory away from the Eastern Conference finals.
Derrick Rose’s knee had crumbled against Philadelphia in Round 1 and key, older elements of the Celtics were petrifying before our eyes in Round 2. And so here were the Sixers — eighth seeds in a bizarre shortened season — with a shot no one saw coming.
This is sports. You play the season in front of you, not the one predicted. Who knows how the unscripted version will turn out?
Which is a roundabout way of getting to the Mets. They were widely predicted to finish last, just like the Orioles. But at that traditional moment when we first try to decode the season — Memorial Day — here were the Mets and the Orioles and why not throw the White Sox in for good measure, too, outplaying prognostication. They were ad-libbing, shunning the script.
Now you do not want to overstate two months of information. We had five months of data last year and on Sept. 1, a few of us might have envisioned a Red Sox-Braves World Series and laughed heartily at this concept: St. Louis Cardinals, champions.
Nevertheless, if forced to speculate, I would still say the Mets are not ready to be six-month contenders. They continue to lack depth, notably beyond the main cogs in the rotation, but really everywhere. Injuries forced them to start a lineup yesterday — Justin Turner leading off, Scott Hairston at cleanup — more befitting St. Lucie in March than Citi Field in May. But then one of the guys who made this feel like a Long Island Duck tryout camp had broken out, Vinny Rottino, hit a two-run homer off Cole Hamels, and so did Hairston.
Hamels had given up one multi-run homer in his first nine starts of 2012, and no more than three earned runs in any. Then he ran into the Bad News Mets, who apparently have not received the memo that this roster should not be five games over .500, even on Memorial Day.
Of course, it should be mentioned, Philadelphia is not exactly sporting a powerhouse lineup either, what with Shane Victorino hitting cleanup. Again, you play the season in front of you and in the actual season Philadelphia has no idea when/if it will get at-bats from Ryan Howard and/or Chase Utley, and is sending Roy Halladay to the doctor today to determine what is wrong with the ace’s right shoulder.
It is possible the Phillies have experienced their version of Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah breaking down, and it is just too much to overcome. But bet against the five-time defending NL East champs at your own peril. They have starting pitching and steely pedigree, and with their 8-4 triumph yesterday at Citi, are 26-24 despite all the dents.
This is the NL East in 2012: A roll call of flawed teams that have camouflaged their defects enough to all be above .500. No one is sturdy enough to run away, not yet anyway. And no one is falling out, not yet anyway. But yesterday marked the first of 25 straight games for the Mets against above-.500 teams. By the time the second Subway Series concludes on June 24, we should know a lot more about these Mets:
Are they The Little Engine that Couldn’t or — like they have been for two months now — a team able to outplay low expectations?
HARDBALL QUIZ
R.A. Dickey has a 3.08 ERA since joining the Mets’ rotation on May 19, 2010. Only five others who have pitched exclusively in the National League in that time have a lower mark (minimum 250 innings). Can you name the others?
Answer appears at end of column.
Amazin’ly, some things did get better
FOR the second straight May 28, the Mets lost to Cole Hamels: 5-2 in 2011 and 8-4 yesterday.
But if I were making a list a year later of what is actually better for the Mets, it would go:
1) The Madoff mess is behind ownership: This might not please fans who wanted the Wilpons out, but they were not selling. Thus, the sooner they could begin trying to fix the finances, the better for the organization.
2) The growth of the farm: Zack Wheeler wasn’t even a Met at this time last year. Now Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia and a healthy Jenrry Mejia are pushing toward the major league staff.
3) Johan Santana is healthy: The whole organization looks and feels better when he is pitching and pitching well.
4) David Wright is a star again: His 0-for-14 is a current blight. But in the aftermath of Jose Reyes’ departure, the Mets needed Wright to be the homegrown beacon again.
5) The steadiness of the Sandy Alderson regime: Yes, Omar Minaya is getting emeritus points as prospects he brought to the organization such as Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Dillon Gee help. But under Alderson something more important has happened: We now expect good decisions (such as not rushing young pitchers Wheeler, Harvey, etc.). That is quite a front office turnaround.
Yankees were Ted wrong
THE Dodgers placed Ted Lilly on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. There was some talk of surgery. He is 36, so obviously any procedure would put his career in jeopardy.
Lilly holds an interesting place in Yankees history as the bypassed pitcher on two horrible decisions. Ten years ago, Lilly was surrendered as part of the three-team trade that brought the Yankees Jeff Weaver.
Lilly has gone 122-98 with a 4.03 ERA since that July 5, 2002 deal. He has the 12th-most wins in that time, sandwiched between Andy Pettitte (125 wins) and Javier Vazquez (119). Weaver went 12-12 with a 5.35 ERA as a Yankee, plus surrendered the Game 4 walk-off homer to Alex Gonzalez that helped turn the 2003 World Series in the Marlins’ favor.
After the 2006 season, the Yankees contemplated Lilly as a free agent, but were worried about his durability and if he were trending the wrong way as he entered his thirties. So rather than trust a guy they knew from personal experience was a hard worker who could handle the AL East, the Yankees invested $46 million in a mystery, in part because the $26 million posting fee for Kei Igawa was not subject to the luxury tax.
Igawa went 2-4 with a 6.66 ERA in 16 Yankees games. Lilly signed a four-year, $40 million deal with the Cubs and his durability — before this shoulder malady — has been good enough since to throw 1,023 ²/₃ innings, the 17th most in the majors, while going 71-53 with a 3.71 ERA.
Quiz Answer
Clayton Kershaw (2.38), Cole Hamels (2.69), Roy Halladay (2.74), Johnny Cueto (2.85), Matt Cain (2.94).
