PORT ST. LUCIE — The Mets’ season stood side-by-side Monday morning.
Jacob deGrom took to the bullpen five-pack at Clover Field for the first time, and next to him throwing his second was Max Scherzer. An offseason of Mets dreams were being realized. No need to be pinched. It was really happening. And no longer in lockout-induced imaginations.
There is so much to like about the 2022 Mets, which includes a raid on the downsizing A’s roster with Chris Bassitt, Mark Canha and Starling Marte coming aboard. Bassitt, in fact, said, “With this roster in itself, we should only have one goal — to win it all.”
Yet, there is fragility here. The Mets have the chance to be a superb team. But what if you begin to reduce the number of starts from deGrom and Scherzer? Yes, of course, remove the top two starters from any team and what do you have? But in this case one of the starters (deGrom) did not appear in a game last year after July 7 with what team president Sandy Alderson described as a low-grade UCL tear. The other (Scherzer) did not start NLCS Game 6 with arm fatigue and, at 37, is currently the third-oldest starter in the NL behind Adam Wainwright and Charlie Morton.
The number of healthy starts that deGrom and Scherzer make is the most vital stat of this Mets season. So vital that The Post asked Mike Korn of PointsBet sportsbook to establish an Over/Under for combined starts by deGrom/Scherzer. The reply: 43.5. That is a bit lower than I anticipated. I would have made it 45. But you see how the season goes. The closer that number is to 60, the more special the Mets are likely to be. But drop it to 50 or 45 or below 43 ¹/₂ and suddenly what differentiates the Mets most from other clubs begins to fall with it.
Max Scherzer throws a bullpen at Mets spring training Tom DiPace
Max Scherzer at Mets Spring Training. Tom DiPaceBassitt and Taijuan Walker were first-time All-Stars last year, but Walker underwent knee surgery Jan. 14. Showalter said Walker still can be in the season-opening rotation. Carlos Carrasco remains a potential upside wild card, but also a mystery how much he can offer. They can form a fine Nos. 3-5 portion of the Mets rotation. But deGrom and Scherzer are historic starters with five Cy Youngs between them. They change the projection of this rotation and an entire $280 million-plus roster.
This all plays into why Buck Showalter has spoken redundantly so far in camp — to his players and to reporters — about the need not to rush. Yes, spring training is just 3 ¹/₂ weeks. But the season is still 162 games. He wants his players ignoring the calendar and fixating on what their bodies are telling them.
Scherzer on Saturday reported he felt young and great even after being a central figure at the baseball labor negotiating table for weeks. DeGrom offered the same positive assessment about how he feels Monday. He reported no problems with his arm and said an MRI showed no lingering elbow concerns.
“I’m very confident with [making 30 starts],” deGrom said.
One of those, Showalter casually acknowledged, will be Opening Day in Washington on April 7. That would be his fourth straight Mets’ opening assignment and would likely push Scherzer’s return to the D.C. mound to Game 2.
Jacob deGrom throws at Mets Spring Training. USA TODAY Sports
Jacob deGrom is confident he can make 30 starts this season. Tom DiPace“It can be demoralizing to an offense to see arms like that [in the probable starters for a series],” James McCann said.
DeGrom has millions of other reasons to stay healthy beyond being central to team success. Scherzer established a new benchmark with the highest per-annum salary ever ($43.3 million) on his three-year, $130 million Mets deal. DeGrom is due $33.5 million this year. He said his plan is not to have negotiation talks and to trigger his player opt-out after the 2022 season. That would make him a free agent and, while deGrom said he would like to play his career out with the Mets, if the Braves can walk away from Freddie Freeman then the Mets can do the same with deGrom. And if deGrom returns to 2018-20 form — mostly healthy and the best pitcher in the game — he could target exceeding Scherzer’s annual salary.
But deGrom needs health and success to confidently delve into free agency. He has a guaranteed $30.5 million in 2023 just in case he doesn’t trigger the option, and then the Mets would have a team option for 2024 at $32.5 million.
The Mets have to hope he opts out because it means deGrom has had a successful campaign. The Mets actually need health and brilliance from deGrom and Scherzer. That is what differentiates the Mets. The twin aces are what keeps a $280 million roster from becoming a house of cards.




