As we prepare to wrap up the season’s first month, the Mets present as a particularly interesting test case for the law of averages.
So many underachievers, so many overachievers … will nature’s regression to the mean help them or hurt them more? Or will it even out and this is just who they are?
They are a .500 team, again, in the wake of Edwin Diaz’s first loss as a Met, with Jesse Winker’s ninth-inning solo homer propelling the Reds to a 5-4 victory Monday night at Citi Field. And so a weird game, one that often carried the aesthetic of a picnic on asphalt, concluded in unhappy fashion for the home team.
“It’s the law of averages,” stud rookie Pete Alonso proclaimed, proving that elite athletes and middle-aged schlubs like me can think alike. “We’re going to be just fine.”
Alonso, who already has delivered so many big hits for the Mets as a freshman, struck out to end the eighth inning after Reds closer Raisel Iglesias intentionally walked Jeff McNeil to put men on first and second for Alonso.
On the flip side, setup man Jeurys Familia, who has been absolutely dreadful since returning to Queens on a three-year, $30 million contract, somehow escaped a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the top of the eighth when he induced Jose Peraza to stroke a bullet right at third baseman Todd Frazier, who smoothly turned an inning-ending, 5-5-3 double play to keep the game tied.
“It was about time someone hit a groundball at somebody and something good happened,” Mickey Callaway proclaimed, and if nothing else, Familia possesses a track record that indicates he should perform considerably better than the 5.68 ERA he still owns.
And, on the flip side, it was about time that Diaz — 8-for-8 in saves since coming over in new general manager Brodie Van Wagenen’s biggest trade and holding lefty batters hitless in 14 at-bats, with 10 strikeouts — slipped up. Especially with him throwing for a third straight day for the initial time this season, an interesting call given the team’s public dedication to not having Diaz pitch more than an inning per appearance.
After easily retiring the first two Reds batters in the ninth, Diaz started off the lefty-swinging Winker with a 96-mph fastball that caught too much of the middle. Winker smoked it over the wall in right-center, allowing the Reds to reclaim the lead they had given up five innings earlier. Iglesias struck out the side (Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto and Todd Frazier) in the bottom of the ninth to close out his own win.
To Diaz’s credit, he was waiting at his locker when the media arrived in the clubhouse, and he patiently stood in his area as starting pitcher Zack Wheeler conducted the first postgame interview (as is the protocol). Diaz got it, and he owned it.
“I’m ready for the highs and lows of the game,” he said through an interpreter. “… I’m ready to take this loss, because I don’t think I’m going to have many more this season.”
Wheeler pitched respectably, overcoming a shaky, four-run second inning to last six frames and give his teammates a chance to catch up. His ERA nevertheless rose slightly from 4.85 to 5.05, giving the Mets three starters with ERAs over 5 (Wheeler, Noah Syndergaard and Jason Vargas), plus Jacob deGrom at 4.85.
The law of averages figures to benefit those guys, deGrom and Syndergaard in particular. But will Alonso, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil all fall back to Earth some? And do the Mets have the roster depth to overcome significant injuries on either side of the roster?
Right now, at 14-14, the Mets define “average.” The next five months figure to bring plenty more surprises. How the law of averages treats them just might determine their fate most of all.
