For a team that won 101 games, has an owner willing to finance a mammoth payroll and retain star-level players, the Mets nevertheless face a treacherous winter. 

Because they had a brave and victorious offseason last year and those are near impossible to duplicate. 

And because they reside in a division in which their No. 1 nemesis just had 12 months on and off the field that was Brave and victorious. 

The Mets were eliminated Sunday night and the Braves announced Monday morning that Spencer Strider had become their latest prime-age, core player to sign what sure reads like a team-friendly long-term extension. It felt like Atlanta punking the Mets once more. The Braves had outdone the Mets behind this core to win the NL East for a fifth straight time and condemn the Mets to a wild-card series against the Padres, which they did not survive. 

And at a time when the Mets are going to have to re-sign and/or restructure so many integral spots on the roster, here were the Braves having Strider join Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson and Austin Riley on the kind of deals that will give the Braves not just a solid foundation for years but the kind that will provide the financial flexibility to, say, lavish someone like Jacob deGrom short term if they want. 

The Mets can ignore the Braves and just assemble the best roster possible. And the last thing this column will suggest is that the Mets should be in anything close to a rebuild. But one thing they shouldn’t ignore is what Atlanta is surely hoping they do. Because I bet the Braves would love for the Mets to get the band back together again by re-signing notably deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo. That group wasn’t good enough to beat Atlanta this year when all performed exceptionally and — besides deGrom — were remarkably healthy. 

A good rule to follow is to never do what your enemy hopes you do. And if I ran the Braves I would be hoping like heck the Mets tie up as much money and as many roster spots as possible on players who will age into baseball senior citizenry on those contracts. They already have pacts that do this with Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar, Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte, James McCann, Max Scherzer and (if as expected they pick up his option) Carlos Carrasco, all under control at least through next year. 

If you bat roughly .500 on free agency and trades, you are doing well; .600 is spectacular. The Mets signed five major league free agents last offseason: Canha, Escobar, Marte, Scherzer and Adam Ottavino. They made one significant trade for Bassitt. They went 6-for-6. Now perhaps their trade deadline, notably the acquisition of Darin Ruf, evens out the numbers going into this offseason. But — deep breath for humility — the Mets based on history will not do as well this winter as last, whether it is Billy Eppler again quarterbacking the choices or someone such as David Stearns is brought in as team president. 

A strong case can be made for re-signing all four big free agents. But also Bassitt turns 34 in February and tanked his two most important starts of the season. Diaz just had the best relief season in Mets history. Is that replicable? Do you pray if you give Diaz, say, a five-year, $90 million-plus deal that he will age like Mariano Rivera on a long-term pact rather than Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel. 

DeGrom, even if he actually wants to still be a Met, turns 35 next June and the ability to  stay healthy throwing 100 mph fastballs and 93 mph sliders is dubious. If you, say, signed him for three years, what would you establish the over/under for regular-season starts he would make in that time? Seventy? Sixty? Fifty?

Nimmo is such a vital engine on offense that he will be difficult to replace. But the history of players figuring out their best health and production in their walk year and then getting paid is not exactly a 100 percent glorious one for the teams. And what will be the cost? I talked to Nimmo’s agent, Scott Boras, this week and he was hitting hard on the scarcity of leadoff hitters and center fielders in this marketplace and Nimmo is both. I have seen comps to Marte’s four-year, $78 million pact and my hunch is it will be closer to double that. 

You will hear the expression often around many teams, including the Mets, that they are willing to do something “within reason.” Throw out that nonsense. Reason goes on holiday during free agency. I had lots of people in the industry telling me what they thought, for example, Kris Bryant was going to get last offseason and let’s just say it was not in the same universe as the seven years at $182 million with which the Rockies blew away the field. 

Free agency is in the eye of the beholder and it just takes one beholder to be transfixed. No one saw seven years at $153 million coming for Jacoby Ellsbury. And Nimmo has a skill set generally like Ellsbury. And Ellsbury’s contract was signed nine years ago with lots fewer billions in the industry. Plus Ellsbury (and Bryant) had the same agent as Nimmo (Boras). 

To keep this all together, Steve Cohen may have to authorize a payroll that would climb beyond $340 million. Cohen has been willing to follow the blueprint from when Guggenheim Partners bought the Dodgers (the organization he wants to emulate) in which the organization spent big to put stars on the field, contend and create cover to restock the farm system. But even Cohen will have limits. A major league source estimated that, at minimum, Cohen will lose $100 million-plus of his own money annually for years to get the operation going as he wants. 

Recently on the podcast “The Show with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman,” Cohen told us. “You should be able to build a pretty good team at $300 million. If you can’t do that, then that’s a problem.” 

But here is a problem — the compensation for letting these free agents go is not as good as it once was. The Mets almost certainly will put the qualifying offer on Bassitt, deGrom, Diaz and Nimmo. If they sign elsewhere, the Mets, as a club that is luxury-tax payer, will receive only a draft pick after the fourth round for each one. It is nice to have extra lottery tickets, but these are not the kinds of picks that vastly accelerate improving your farm system. 

Also, of that quartet, only Bassitt is likely to sense enough chill in his market — especially from any other team that exceeded the luxury tax in 2022 and would have to forfeit its second- and fifth-highest draft picks plus $1 million in international pool space — to consider accepting the qualifying offer or signing a “reasonable” extension to stay. 

By the way, we have not gotten into three other key matters complicating the Met offseason: 

1. They also have to redo pretty much a whole bullpen, not just deal with Diaz. Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Joely Rodriguez, Trevor Williams and Mychal Givens (assuming his $8 million option is not picked up) are free agents. 

2. They received positive performances plus health near across the board. 

3. Lindor and Pete Alonso played 161 and 160 games and are likely top-10 MVP finishers. Would you bet Scherzer, 38, will fall below or exceed the 23 starts he made in 2022? That Bassitt, Carrasco and Walker made 88 combined starts would have felt impossible in spring training. Jeff McNeil won a batting title. Canha, Escobar and Marte (all in their age-33 seasons) combined to play 394 games and be worth 8.1 Wins Above Replacement (Fangraphs). Do you think it will be better or worse when they are all 34? 

Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty are exciting prospects. But (sorry, back to the Braves), Harris and Strider are going to finish 1-2 (in some order) for the NL Rookie of the Year. Their injection, as much as anything, catapulted the Braves from a sleepy start to overtaking the Mets. Are Alvarez and Baty going to provide something similar in 2023? Do the Mets really — and this is REALLY — believe Alvarez can handle the complexities of the modern catching job and hit to his projections at such a young age? Because having a strong defensive catcher has perhaps never been more vital. 

Also, this is the best of it. The Mets system has made strides in the last 12 months. But it still is not the factory of the Braves or Dodgers — the two teams that the Mets are trying to outdo in the NL. The Mets, for example, can expect no significant pitching impact from their system next year. Which also hurts in the trade market. 

So thank you for coming this far to fully appreciate the landscape facing Team Cohen. They still have Alonso, Lindor, McNeil and Scherzer, so it is quite a start. 

But assuming opt-outs by Bassitt, deGrom and Walker, and the picking up of the options for Carrasco ($14 million) and Daniel Vogelbach ($1.5 million), the Mets (for luxury-tax purposes) have nine players (Scherzer, Lindor, Marte, Canha, Carrasco, Escobar, McCann, Ruf and Vogelbach signed for $148.625 million. MLB Trade Rumors projects the two key arbitration-eligible players — Alonso and McNeil — to come in at around $22 million combined. Plus for the luxury tax, every team will be charged roughly $16.5 million next year for benefits such as insurance. That puts the Mets at about $187 million. 

Perhaps someone such as McCann, Ruf or Vogelbach can be dealt. But that doesn’t really change the math much. The Mets have to fill more than half a roster with, let’s say, $110 million to spend on 2023 payroll. 

So for anyone who wants to invest, say, near $40 million per to even have a shot of luring Aaron Judge over the Robert F. Kennedy Bridge, think about how much is left to remake an entire pen and 60 percent of a rotation. 

It is why as great as deGrom is, I think the Cohen Mets will participate in the Wilponian standard of offering just enough to suggest to fans they tried, but not enough to actually sign him. I suspect deGrom will take something like Scherzer’s three years at $130 million (perhaps more). And — unless Cohen really doesn’t care about having a $340 million-plus payroll — the risk-reward of having two fragile upper-30s pitchers at $85 million-ish per is not the way to go. 

I would think for $40 million a year the Mets could bring back Diaz and Nimmo. It is scary long term. But Cohen is willing to spend some now to create time to build the infrastructure. The return of Diaz at least provides the most important answer to reformulating a bullpen. Nimmo keeps the Mets from gambling on Marte in center and/or plumbing an unattractive center-field market. 

This would keep a strong lineup top five with Nimmo, Marte, Lindor, Alonso and McNeil. The Mets could hope that as a catcher and/or DH that Alvarez works in to supply needed power; perhaps Baty too. Add Canha and Escobar and — at least for 2023 — the Mets have general protection here. But I think they should try for Matt Carpenter in free agency on a one- or two-year deal if they believe his swing adjustments are real; then find 400-ish at-bats for him at first, third, right and especially DH. 

I’m not sure without an owner in place that the Angels will deal Shohei Ohtani this offseason, but even if they did — as much as he would solve the Mets’ power bat/starter needs in reuniting with his old Angels GM Eppler — the lack of near-ready, high-end pitching prospects would make it difficult for the Mets to land him. 

As for the rotation, deGrom and Justin Verlander are the expensive short-term veterans in free agency. Carlos Rodon — talented but oft-injured — is the high-risk, high-reward option. 

For the Mets, if they have strong reports on Koudai Senga, they should pursue that diligently, then also sign a secondary type such as Jose Quintana or Ross Stripling. 

Senga, the ace of the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks, is almost certainly coming to MLB this offseason and because of his projectable high-end stuff is expected to be in great demand. 

To solve the lack of a lefty reliever, how about a one-year deal for a southpaw with closing experience such as Zack Britton (if your medical people say further removed from Tommy John surgery he is a worthy health risk) or Will Smith? The reality is this is an area in which the Mets personnel department is going to have to prove it can find untapped gems — think Boston finding John Schreiber on waivers or Jimmy Herget, designated for assignment four times before emerging as the Angels closer. 

There are some areas that even the Cohen Mets are going to have to save money.