Logo

Ken Davidoff and Kevin Kernan break down the National League for The Post’s 2019 MLB preview. Davidoff tackles the East, while Kernan digs into the Central and West.

NL East

1. Nationals

Over/Under win total: 88¹/₂

Key player: Juan Soto. The Nats let Bryce Harper go to the rival Phillies without much of a fight in large part because they felt very good about their post-Harper outfield. Soto serves as the crown jewel of this vision. The 20-year-old finished second in last year’s NL Rookie of the Year balloting, and he might just possess a Harper-esque ceiling.

Player who’ll need to step up: Adam Eaton cost a significant price in talent when the Nats acquired him from the White Sox in December 2016, and he hasn’t underperformed as much as he has simply failed to stay on the field. Without Harper, Eaton’s room for error diminishes. His robust health would go a long way.

Name you’ll get to know: Victor Robles apprenticed a little in 2017 and a little more last year, putting up a .288/.348/.525 slash line in 66 plate appearances in 2018. He’s still a rookie and has to be among the leading contenders for NL Rookie of the Year.

Biggest question mark: Manager Dave Martinez received a second chance after faltering as a rookie skipper, and given how little the Nats’ owners appear to value managers, he probably needs to lead this team to its fifth playoff appearance in eight years. Can he run a good bullpen and keep the clubhouse upbeat and focused?

How it’ll go down: There’s just so much talent here, with Patrick Corbin and Brian Dozier headlining an impressive list of newcomers to an already stellar foundation, that the Nats should prevail over a rabid group of challengers and win this division.

2. Phillies

Over/Under win total: 89

Key player: Bryce Harper. Who else? The $330 million man will be the target of every boobird … and that’s just at Citizens Bank Park. At 26, how much room for growth exists, and has his high-profile background prepared him for what’s coming? The answers will determine both his legacy and his team’s fortunes.

Player who’ll need to step up: Obudel Herrera didn’t do much in any area for the Phillies last year, and his dreadful .622 OPS in the second half helped sink his club’s playoff dreams. Even a return to his sold 2017, let alone his All-Star 2016, would be a boon.

Name you’ll get to know: Adam Haseley, the eighth overall pick of the 2017 amateur draft, fared well with Double-A Reading last year and the outfielder could push himself up to the big-league’s club radar by the end of this season.

Biggest question mark: The starting rotation. Beyond last year’s breakout star Aaron Nola and old reliable Jake Arrieta, do the Phillies have enough? Right-handers Nick Pivetta, Vince Velazquez and Zach Eflin each posted ERAs over 4.00 in 2018. It still could make sense for the Phillies to dip into what’s left of the free-agent field.

How it’ll go down: This figures to be a pressure cooker with Harper and high-energy manager Gabe Kapler, whose rookie campaign turned quite sour last year. Man, oh man, though, did the Phillies have themselves a winter, adding Andrew McCutchen (like Harper a former National League Most Valuable Player), J.T. Realmuto, David Robertson and Jean Segura in addition to Harper. They’ll get back to the postseason for the first time since 2011.

3. Mets

Over/Under win total: 84¹/₂

Key player: If Zack Wheeler can prove that his 2018 rise represented an origin story rather than a one-hit wonder, and he can team up with Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard to create a three-ace flurry, then wow, would that be huge for this team.

Player who’ll need to step up: This goes down as Travis d’Arnaud’s last chance, his potential so far unfulfilled since he, not Syndergaard, initially topped the 2012 return from the Blue Jays for R.A. Dickey. That he appears fated to start the season on the injured list, not fully rehabilitated from last year’s Tommy John surgery on his right elbow, is a sadly fitting start to this final opportunity.

Name you’ll get to know:

There’s this unheralded guy named Pete Alonso … OK, you’re familiar with him. You’re understandably excited to finally see him perform in the big leagues. Can a guy with this sort of raw power miss? Yes, he can. Soar or crash, though, it should be a fun ride.

Biggest question mark: Are the Mets too old? Two of their geezers, Todd Frazier and Jed Lowrie, will start the season on the injured list. Robinson Cano and Jason Vargas both check the over-35 box, and Wilson Ramos is an old 31.

How it’ll go down: You still have to wonder whether this broken organization is truly healing or just slapping a dynamic Band-Aid on its wounds. The payroll didn’t really increase significantly; the owners are guilty of possessing terrible instincts until proven innocent and Van Wagenen’s steady bluster has scored him few industry friends. What’s the next step when this ramp-up results in another empty October?

4. Braves

Over/Under win total: 86

Key player: Josh Donaldson served as Atlanta’s big offseason buy, a one-year, $23 million gambit on a formerly elite player who played in only 52 games last season due to calf and shoulder ailments. The 33-year-old third baseman probably has to look far more like his prime self for the Braves to repeat as division champs.

Player who’ll need to step up: At least one of the catching duo of Tyler Flowers and Brian McCann will require a bounce-back after both registered very quiet 2018 campaigns. The former Yankee McCann, 35, returns to his original team after essentially playing himself off the Astros.

Mike SorokaAPMike SorokaAP

Name you’ll get to know: Mike Soroka made it all the way to the majors last year, only to fall victim to right shoulder issues, and new concerns in the right shoulder slowed him down this spring. He’ll try to strengthen his wing at Triple-A Gwinnett.

Biggest question mark: Did the Braves do enough to stay afloat in this hypercompetitive division? They essentially closed the cash register after landing Donaldson and McCann in November. They let Anibal Sanchez, a reclamation project, flee to the Nationals. They have endured a rough spring with injuries to ace Mike Foltynewicz and Soroka, among others.

How it’ll go down: No, they didn’t do enough. The Braves can’t expect repeat performances from their young stud Ronald Acuna, nor their returning graybeard, Nick Markakis. Their pitching depth already has dissipated and the season hasn’t even started yet. They’ll tumble all the way to fourth place, and their fans will rightfully wonder why they didn’t do more.

5. Marlins

Over/Under win total: 63

Key player: The Phillies included catcher Jorge Alfaro in the trade package to land J.T. Realmuto, and at age 25, it’s time for Alfaro to realize his long-discussed potential. The Marlins need to hit on this Realmuto trade after not having much to show for their deals of the Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich outfield trio.

Player who’ll need to step up: If Starlin Castro, who is still only 29, can play at his peak level for the first half, he might actually create some trade value for himself now that he’s entering his walk year. The Marlins must continue to collect young, controllable talent, so even one high-end player in return for Castro — who would benefit from playing well in his walk year — would constitute a victory.

Name you’ll get to know: Nick Niedert fared quite well with Double-A Jacksonville last season, and with virtually no one blocking him from upward mobility, the 22-year-old right-hander can climb as high as his results take him.

Biggest question mark: Is this going to work? “This” being the ownership group, headed by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, now entering its second season. Year 1 proved a predictable disaster, with very few young players distinguishing themselves. Will Jeter retain his long-ago Yankees pal Don Mattingly, whose contract to manage expires after this season, into 2020 and beyond?

How it’ll go down: Bet this house and your next house that they’ll finish in last place. Shoot, if their attendance (a worst in the majors 811,104 last year) stays flat, Jeter should win the Nobel Peace Prize.

NL Central

1. Cardinals

Over/Under win total: 88¹/₂

Key player: Paul Goldschmidt. Landing the slugging first baseman in a trade with the Diamondbacks and extending him with a five-year $130 million contract gives the Cardinals renewed hope after three straight seasons of missing out on the playoffs. It also allows Matt Carpenter to go to third base, as he has reworked his throwing motion to overcome shoulder problems. Over the past six seasons, Goldschmidt has averaged 30 home runs, 36 doubles and 100 RBIs. The Cards will fly again.

Player who’ll need to step up: Andrew Miller. There is a lot of wear and tear on the left-hander, and last season Miller managed only 34 innings and 45 strikeouts, just about half of his usual output. He turns 34 in May but feels rejuvenated after signing with the Cardinals. He will be the setup man for 100 mph man Jordan Hicks, and along with former starter Alex Reyes gives the Cards an impressive back end of the bullpen.

Name you’ll get to know: Jack Flaherty and his wipeout slider put up a 4-0 August with a 1.13 ERA and he has the tools to be a star. Flaherty is in line to start the home opener, and the 23-year-old gives this rotation, led by Miles Mikolas, hope for the future, especially with all the disappointment of Carlos Martinez’s shoulder issues.

Biggest question mark: Marcell Ozuna. If he’s right, he could keep alive the Marlins’ tradition of giving away MVP winners. Giancarlo Stanton won the 2017 NL MVP and was promptly traded to the Yankees. Christian Yelich was jettisoned to the Brewers and became the 2018 NL MVP. Perhaps it just took Ozuna a year to get over being traded by the Marlins and a shoulder issue.

How it’ll go down: Manager Mike Shildt replaced Mike Matheny last season and turned the Cardinals around with his ability to communicate and get the best from his players. The Cardinals have a lot of talent and the clubhouse improved tremendously with the additions of Goldschmidt and Miller. The Arch will witness October baseball again.

2. Brewers

Over/Under win total: 87

Key player: Mike Moustakas. He has never played second base professionally, but the Brewers are going to try him there and see how he does. They shift plenty so he will get help, and getting Moose’s offense back again will add some pop to the lineup.

Player who’ll need to step up: Orlando Arcia. He is a defensive whiz at shortstop, but struggled badly at the plate last year and was sent down twice. He won’t have to hit a ton, but he needs need to do better than 2018. It’s all about the offense, and he showed potential in the postseason when he batted .333 with power.

Keston HiuraAPKeston HiuraAP

Name you will get to know: Top prospect second baseman Keston Hiura. He came out of UC Irvine with a a gorgeous swing and has not disappointed in the march to the majors. He will start the season in Triple-A, but later in the year could get the call-up to Milwaukee. Only 22, his .323 batting average in the Arizona Fall League last year was a preview of big things and sweet swings to come.

Biggest question mark: How the rotation will do after No. 1 starter Jhoulys Chacin? Chase Anderson struggled at times last year, Zach Davies was hurt and the young trio of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff doesn’t have much experience. Jimmy Nelson still has a long road back from injury. Yes, the bullpen carried the weight, but after such a busy bullpen year those tired arms are already a little shaky and the starters need to do more.

How it’ll go down: Milwaukee is a terrific baseball town and their fans were tremendous last October in the playoff run before losing to the Dodgers in seven games in the NLCS. Expect the Brewers to make it as a wild card, but only if the bullpen does not fall apart. Already Jeremy Jeffress is dealing with shoulder weakness and Corey Knebel has an issue with his ulnar collateral ligament. Not good.

3. Cubs

Over/Under win total: 88

Key player: Kris Bryant is coming off a left shoulder injury that caused him to miss 50 games last season. Third basemen can wind up with bad shoulders and Bryant needs to get back to the player he was in 2017, when he produced a .946 OPS. That dipped to .834 in 2018, when he was limited to 102 games. Yu Darvish also needs a bounce-back year. He was supposed to be the staff savior after signing as a free agent, but suffered through a dreadful season.

Player who’ll need to step up: Willson Contreras. He is coming off a terrible second half at the plate, where he batted .200 and showed little power and his pitch framing is under scrutiny. No catcher wants to get that reputation. Contreras admitted his work ethic slipped last season causing him to lose strength.

Name you’ll get to know (again): Kyle Schwarber reverted to his former batting stance, in which he’s squatting more. He’s looking to hit more to the opposite field, and it could make a difference as he tries to return to his 2016 World Series form. But then again maybe expectations were too high from the start with Schwarber after that miraculous World Series.

Biggest question mark:

The bullpen won’t have closer Brandon Morrow for at least the first month. Pedro Strop has hamstring issues and Brad Brach’s velocity has hovered in the high 80 mph range most of spring training. That’s trouble. Also, the starting rotation also has four starters 30 or older — Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish and Jose Quintana.

How it’ll go down: Joe Maddon is in the final year of his contract, but he has a way of making managerial magic and look for his leadership to once again be center stage. The Cubs have made the postseason four straight seasons under Maddon, and get this — in eight of his past nine years of managing, Maddon’s team have won at least 90 games. This division will be a Pier-Six brawl and the Cubs will have to find a way to scrap their way back to the postseason again.

4. Reds

Over/Under win total: 79¹/₂

Key player: Joey Votto. His power numbers were down (his slugging percentage was a dismal .419) and he was disappointed with his 2018 season. Despite all the additions, he can make the biggest impact in the lineup. A hitting machine all his career, but at the age of 35 can he still produce like he once did?

Player who’ll need to step up: Sonny Gray. You might remember him. The Reds showed their faith in him with a three-year, $30.5 million extension. They need the right-hander to be the ace of their staff and look more like the Oakland version than the Yankees version, who evidently didn’t like the way he was handled in The Bronx with the way he was forced to use his slider. Less pressure here and maybe more success.

Name you’ll get to know: Nick Senzel. They moved their top prospect from the infield to center field so he wasn’t blocked by All-Stars Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez. He was one of the best pure hitters in his draft class, taken second overall out of the University of Tennessee in 2016, but injuries limited him to 44 games last season in Triple-A Louisville and he’ll start the year in the minors.

Question mark: Yasiel Puig. He’s in the last year of his contract, so he should be motivated by coming free agency. He should put up big numbers in a small ballpark, but how will he handle leaving LA? How will he handle the bright lights of Cincinnati? Then there is Matt Kemp. How will he handle playing the outfield at 34 with a lot of mileage on that big body? How will Reds pitchers like that defense?

How it’ll go down: The new additions on the pitching staff (Gray, Alex Wood and Tanner Roark) must come up big for the Reds to have success. The Reds will impact the baseball, but will it be enough? It will be fun to see reliever Michael Lorenzen pitch (3.11 ERA) and hit (a .710 slugging percentage in 31 at-bats). The Reds are gaining a lot of momentum, but there is a ways to go.

5. Pirates

Over/Under win total: 77¹/₂

Key player: Chris Archer. The Pirates gave up three well-regarded young players — Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Shane Baz — for Archer last year, but he’s put up un-ace-like numbers over the past three years. They need him to join Jameson Taillon atop the rotation this season. If he does, they have the makings of a really good pitching staff.

Player who’ll need to step up: Josh Bell. A year after hitting 26 homers and driving in 90 runs, Bell went deep 12 times and finished with 62 RBIs last season while grading out as the worst defensive first baseman in the NL. The Pirates still view him as someone who can anchor their lineup, and they’re hoping he turns into more of an offensive threat under new hitting coaches Rick Eckstein and Jacob Cruz.

Name you’ll get to know: Jameson Taillon. Here is your fun fact of the day: Remember the guy drafted between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado at No. 2 of the 2010 draft? That’s Taillon. After beating testicular cancer in 2017, Taillon took a significant step forward last year by going 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA in 191 innings over 32 starts. He finished the season with a deGrom-ian run of 22 straight starts allowing three earned runs or fewer. Impressive.

Biggest question mark: Jung Ho Kang. He missed most of the past two years due to legal issues and injuries, but he is back in the organization with a chance to earn the starting third-base job. If Kang returns to his 2015-16 form, he’ll be a much-needed power bat and a solid defender. But it’s hard to know what to expect after so much time away.

How it’ll go down: Baseball is better when the Pirates are a good team. They have the cool stadium and great uniforms, but they need much more than that to succeed. If Archer comes around the starting pitching could be something to build upon, and the bullpen has a solid closer in Felipe Vazquez and added a setup man in Keone Kela. Offense could be a challenge in this tough division.

NL West

1. Dodgers

Over/Under win total: 93

Key player: Corey Seager. His return from Tommy John surgery is vital to the Dodgers’ success. Seager was Rookie of the Year in 2016 and he followed that up with a strong season in 2017 before his elbow and hip betrayed him. Getting him back healthy is like adding an elite free agent. Over his first 329 major league games he put up a slash line of .305/.374/.502. Then the injuries hit.

Player who’ll need to step up:

Walker Buehler. The young right-hander is the ace in waiting with Clayton Kershaw slowing down because of injuries. With Kershaw’s health issues, the future is suddenly now for Walker. Buehler had a late start to spring training because he wasn’t “feeling right’’ after 177 total innings last year. Julio Urias could relieve a lot of the pitching pressure, too, especially with lefty Rich Hill down with a knee strain.

Name you’ll get to know: Keibert Ruiz is a top Dodgers prospect who may have a unique opportunity with the catching situation, though Dave Roberts has said it is not likely Ruiz will get the call-up this season. That could change.

Biggest question mark: Alex Verdugo finally gets his shot in the outfield with Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp gone. He’s been the top prospect in waiting for two years now. The Dodgers’ big offseason signing was not Bryce Harper but A.J. Pollock, who has been haunted by injuries and played only 237 games the past three seasons with the Diamondbacks.

How it’ll go down: The Dodgers are deep in talent and Roberts, with all the front office help he gets, plays a lot of different lineups. Expect the Dodgers to win their seventh straight NL West title. But an improved division will make it a little tougher battle this time. They’ve won two straight pennants but haven’t won a world championship since 1988. Lots of pressure here come October.

2. Rockies

Over/Under win total: 85¹/₂

Key player: Nolan Arenado. Might be best player in the game. Defense, offense, clubhouse presence and now the third baseman has the mega-contract after signing that eight-year, $260 million extension. Yes, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got all that money, but they had to go to new teams. Arenado’s team kept him at that huge price, which tells you his real worth. He stayed home and got paid.

Player who’ll need to step up: Ian Desmond. Has been a positive factor in the clubhouse but hasn’t hit his stride. At 33, he is moving to center field, where he played well for the Rangers in 2016. Coors Field is a lot of green so this will be a test. Desmond batted .236 last season and hits way too many ground balls, with a 63.2 percent ground-ball rate. In third season of $70 million deal.

Name you’ll get to know: Brendan Rodgers is only 22 and may be a year away, but with DJ LeMahieu a Yankee now, there is an opening at second base that will be filled by 24-year-old Ryan McMahon. If only one of them can have the same success as shortstop Trevor Story, who made an All-Star team and is quietly a key leader on the team. The power is legit and his arm is strong.

Biggest question mark: It’s always the pitching at Coors Field, and the bullpen combo of lefty Jake McGee/righty Bryan Shaw has struggled. Both signed three-year, $25 million deals a year ago and both hit hard times. They haven’t looked much better this spring and Shaw seems to have lost the clean mechanics he possessed in Cleveland when he averaged 74 games a year over last six years there.

How it’ll go down: Bud Black is an excellent manager, and with Arenado signed long term, if the Rockies can fix their bullpen issues and get Jon Gray to not give up as many home runs (27 last year) they could make it back to the postseason.

3. Padres

Over/Under win total: 78

Key player: Manny Machado. The $300 million third baseman has the money, but he will find that being out on the West Coast with the Padres a lonely existence, unless San Diego suddenly finds a way to turn it all around and become a contender. They’ve been the hot pick the past few years, but haven’t shown up when the season starts.

Player who’ll need to step up: Eric Hosmer. The Padres gave him an eight-year deal worth $144 million before last season and all they got was a .253/.322/.398 slash line and .720 OPS. Now with his friend Machado on board, Hosmer is going to have to become more of an offensive force or this deal by GM A.J. Preller will be a real stinker. Don’t mention the $83 million deal to Wil Myers.

Name you’ll get to know: You likely already know the name. Fernando Tatis Jr. landed on the cover of Sports Illustrated along with Machado, highlighting the Padres eye-popping position talent. Second baseman Luis Urias and shortstop Tatis should form quite the combo.

Biggest question mark: Starting pitching. C’mon, you’re not excited about this rotation with the likes of Joey Lucchesi, Bryan Mitchell and Robbie Erlin. There are youngsters Chris Paddack and Logan Allen, but there is a long way to go. The Padres’ 5.09 starters’ ERA was the worst among NL rotations in 2018. Nothing kills high hopes faster than bad starting pitching.

How it’ll go down: This is the 50th anniversary season for the Padres. In 1969 they made the jump in theory from the PCL to the majors, but in too many ways they remain a minor league operation. Can Machado carry the heavy load? It will be fun to watch the young talent grow and see Franmil Reyes hit long home runs (16 in 261 at-bats). A good Padres team would make the NL West so much more fun.

4. Giants

Over/Under win total: 74

Key player: Buster Posey. The veteran catcher had season-ending hip surgery last year and will be eased into this season. He had been losing pop in the second half of recent seasons without leg strength. Their top pick last year, second overall, was Joey Bart, who has had a great spring and could be the everyday guy some time in 2020, with Posey possibly moving to first. Posey wants to catch, and manager Bruce Bochy, in his final year, wants him to catch.

Evan LongoriaUPIEvan LongoriaUPI

Player who’ll need to step up: Evan Longoria had his worst season as a first-year Giant after being face of the Rays for a decade. He seems to have lost the explosiveness in his swing. Longoria had hand surgery last summer, but wasn’t good before it. He spoke of being in a new environment in San Fran, so different from the indoor Rays game. These park and elements were tough on him.

Name you’ll get to know: Steven Duggar. The center fielder is above average defender and runner. He put up solid rookie numbers with .255 average in 41 games, but got hurt entering the final month and is mostly untested. He showed signs of figuring it out at the plate before his shoulder injury.

Biggest question mark: Outfield still is bad. Mac Williamson in left, Duggar in center, Gerardo Parra in right. They added nobody of great significance to the biggest hole on the team beyond Parra on a minor league deals. For some reason this franchise has gotten away from offense, especially in the outfield, and is too worried about defense. Needs boppers.

How it’ll go down: This is Bochy’s swan song in San Francisco and it will be a bad year, but it would not be shocking if he recharged his batteries and came back to manage another major league club. That is, if any team really wants a manager and not the middle managers of today that litter most major league dugouts, letting the front office pull all their strings.

5. Diamondbacks

Over/Under win total: 76

Key player: Robbie Ray. If the D-backs have any chance of being successful, they need the lefty to regain his 2017 form and not be the 2018 version who suffered the dreaded oblique injury. Over 123 ²/₃ innings, he surrendered 70 walks and 97 hits — that’s a lot of base runners and not a lot of innings.

Player who’ll need to step up: Jake Lamb. Trading the great Paul Goldschmidt and losing free agent A.J. Pollock hurts the offense, so they need to find a way to replace some of that production. This offense was limited even before Steven Souza went down with a knee injury. The lefty-hitting Lamb, who has played only 29 innings at first base, will get the call to cover for Goldy. Good luck.

Name you’ll get to know: Luke Weaver. The right-hander looked really good this spring, posting a 1.59 ERA, after coming over in the Goldschmidt trade. Another name to watch is Yoan Lopez, the Cuban reliever who put together a good September and has pitched well this spring. He has dominant, closer-type stuff and should make the team out of camp, but if he doesn’t he will be up at some point.

Biggest question mark: The offense struggled in May and September in particular last year and now that tepid offense is missing Goldschmidt and Pollock. This spring the D-Backs were near the bottom of among all teams in runs scored. Spring training statistics don’t matter, but this is a sign of bad times offensively to come. A shame because Chase Field is one of the best hitting parks in baseball, players rave about the batters’ eye.

How it’ll go down: This will not be a pretty sunset in the desert. When things do go south the Diamondbacks will trade everyone, including Ray, so whatever talent is there will be dispersed. It will be a buildup from the ground up, where prospects like 18-year-old Kristian Robinson, an outfielder from the Bahamas, will get center stage for the future.

Comments
anonymous profile image
Powered by RoundtableBuilt on infrastructure designed for real-time media. Learn more at RTB.io.© Roundtable 2026. By using this site you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy