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If the Mets are going to avoid another September collapse they are going to have to do without Billy Wagner.

The lead isn’t as big this year, but the stakes are just as high with the Mets holding a 1 ½ game lead over the Phillies with the Nationals coming into Shea for the start of a two-game series tonight (weather permitting, 7:10, SNY, WFAN).

The news that Wagner will require Tommy John surgery and perhaps miss next season, too, does not make things easier for the Amazin’s, who have had bullpen issues even when their closer was healthy.

“I’m very surprised and very sorry for Billy,” interim manager Jerry Manuel said. “It does make it more difficult for us, but we’ll get it done.”

The Nationals were the main culprit behind last year’s debacle, taking five of six games from the Mets, who blew a seven-game lead with 17 games to go and finished one behind the Phillies for the NL East crown.

And wouldn’t you know it, tonight’s matchup is the first of six September games between the Mets and Nats. And this is a much-improved Nationals team than the one the Mets pummeled in mid-August, outscoring Washington 25-6 during a three-game sweep. The Nationals are 12-5 in their past 17 games.

“We think we are as good as anybody,” Carlos Delgado said. “We think we are the team to beat. We think that what happened last year is not going to happen again. We are very confident that we can get this done.

“It’s definitely a different atmosphere here, a different feeling than what it was last year.”

Delgado is the main reason the Mets are still on top in the NL East. He bailed out his teammates with a two home runs in Sunday’s nightcap that led the Mets to a 6-3 win over the Phillies. A loss and the two would have been tied on top of the division.

Tonight’s Pitching Matchup:

Mets LHP Oliver Perez (10-7, 3.86 ERA) Perez has not had a loss since Aug. 3, totaling six starts. One of those came against the Nationals, when he held them to three runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 9-3 Mets win.

Nationals LHP John Lannan (8-13, 3.88 ERA) Lannan, a Long Beach native, is a 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA in two career starts at Shea Stadium.

With Mets.com

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