Doubt is a funny thing.
On the one hand, it makes us stop and think before acting too hastily and rushing into something. On the other hand, doubt also can prevent you from achieving goals or question your own self worth.
Doubt is constant in fantasy baseball. Did you give up on that underachieving pitcher too early? In your head you start to say, “The expected stats say he’s going to turn it around, but should I wait? There have been no fewer than 20 players I could’ve picked up to help me close that six-game gap between me and the first-place team. Maybe I should drop him. But, what if he turns it on? Wait … did I leave the iron on?”
Roto Rage’s advice: Trust your gut. Not all your moves will work out, but at least you had the guts to swing for the fences.
Jon Gray USA TODAY SportsYear after year, Jon Gray was one of those pitchers who would be listed among the potential breakout candidates. Year after year, Gray would show flashes. Year after year, Gray would ultimately never fully live up to the hype.
Then, the right-hander left Colorado …
After a rough April and May (1-2, 5.56 ERA, .248 opponents average), the 30-year-old Ranger has turned things around in a pretty big way.
Over his past 10 starts (since June 1), Gray has allowed more than three earned runs just twice while going 6-2 with a 2.34 ERA and .204 opponents’ average. He has won six of his past seven starts while maintaining a 1.85 ERA with a 48-7 strikeout-walk rate, .209 opponents average and .579 OPS.
During that 10-game stretch, he had the second most wins (six) in the majors, the 13th-best strikeouts per nine (10.65), the 11th-best ERA (2.34) and the 19th-best swinging strike rate (12.6 percent). He had a 2.88 FIP and 2.90 xFIP in that span.
Gray entered the weekend with the ninth-best strikeout rate (27 percent), 22nd-best opponents average (.218) and ranked 17th in swinging strike rate (12.2 percent). He also ranked 33rd in ERA (3.42) and 27th in WHIP (1.12, a career-best mark). Over seven seasons with the Rockies, Gray’s ERA finished under 4.00 just twice and never finished under 3.50.
Though Gray’s fastball can hit 98 mph, opposing hitters are hitting .279 against it. He does his damage with his slider — a pitch he is using 36.3 percent of the time. Opponents are hitting .159 against it with a 40.3 percent whiff rate and 21.5 percent swinging-strike rate. His expected stats also support the success of his slider.
Jon Gray Getty ImagesGray’s xERA (3.54) is ever-so-slightly above his ERA, his FIP (3.28) and xFIP (3.27) show his performance is legit — and could potentially improve in the second half, even with a challenging schedule.
After pitching six scoreless innings against Miami on Thursday, Gray’s potential schedule may not look like it would work in his favor. Barring injuries or unexpected interruptions to the schedule, he is scheduled to pitch seven of his next 11 starts on the road, where he is 3-4 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and .224 opponents average in 12 road starts. His opponents could include the Mariners, Angels, Astros (twice), Twins, Red Sox and Marlins.
Roto Rage says don’t let doubt creep into your head and wait until he is home, where he has had far more success (4-0, 2.93 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 in five starts), to put him in your rotation. He isn’t in Colorado any more.
If you need dependable pitchers in your lineup, Gray is proving he can and will be just that (even with an occasional dud). Don’t doubt it.
Big Hits
Matt Carpenter 2B/DH, Yankees
Before going 0-for-7 in Thursday’s twin bill, he hit .442 with seven homers, 21 RBIs, 12 runs and 1.023 OPS in his first 13 games this month.
Paul Sewald RP, Mariners
Allowed two earned runs over his past 14 appearances, going 8-for-8 in save chances while striking out 20, walking one and limiting opponents to a .130 average. Owned in less than 40 percent of ESPN leagues.
Matt Carpenter Charles Wenzelberg/New York PostLeody Taveras OF, Rangers
Entered Friday on a nine-game hit streak, going 16-for-35 (.457) with a homer, 11 RBIs, nine runs, four stolen bases and 1.258 OPS in that span.
Harold Ramirez 1B/OF, Rays
In 39 games since June 1, he hit .384 with 22 RBIs, 17 runs, two stolen bases and .956 OPS. He had at least one hit in 31 of those games.
Big Whiffs
Isaac Paredes 2B/3B, Rays
Had no homers since hitting two on July 2, going 7-for-42 (.167) with one RBI, nine strikeouts and .476 OPS in 11 games since.
MacKenzie Gore SP, Padres
Went 4-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his first nine appearances, but was 0-3 with a 10.89 ERA, 14-18 strikeout-walk rate and .341 opponents average in his past six.
McKenzie Gore (r.) talks with catcher Austin Nola. APEddie Rosario OF, Braves
In his first 12 games since returning from the IL, he was hitting .195 with 11 strikeouts, no walks, a .186 on-base percentage and .552 OPS.
Nick Pivetta SP, Red Sox
No wins since June 24, going 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA, 10 walks and .342 opponents average in his past four starts. Allowed four homers and 20 earned runs over his past 13 ¹/₃ innings (13.50 ERA).
Check Swings
- Miami’s Pablo Lopez was 4-2 with a 1.83 ERA after taking a no-decision on May 30 against Colorado. His ERA is up to 3.14 after going 2-3 with a 4.68 ERA, seven homers allowed and a .418 opponents’ slugging percentage in his past nine starts. His xERA (3.83), FIP (3.73) and xFIP (3.61) all indicate some more regression. Other regression candidates include first-half studs Justin Verlander, Tony Gonsolin, Alek Manoah, Logan Gilbert, Triston McKenzie, Miles Mikolas, Kyle Wright and Julio Urias.
- If you’re looking for a buy-low bat, try Atlanta’s Marcell Ozuna. Despite hitting .221, he is smashing the ball with 17 homers and a 113.9 mph max exit velocity (which ranks in the top 6 percent of the league). He also has a .263 expected batting average, a .501 xSLG (top 7 percent) and 46.9 percent hard-hit rate. His .239 BABIP also indicates he has been unlucky.
- Justin Turner, hitting .253 on the season for the Dodgers, ended the first half on a strong note and entered the weekend hitting .414 with four homers, 16 RBIs, eight walks, .655 slugging percentage and 1.148 OPS over his past 17 games.
Team Name Of The Week
No Diggity, No Trout






