Word is surfacing about keen early trade interest in Guardians ace Shane Bieber. Because Cleveland is within striking distance of first in the AL Central, there’s no guarantee he’ll be dealt, but here are four reasons to believe it could happen:
1) The Guardians see the big picture; 2) They probably can’t afford Bieber long-term; 3) They have an understanding owner and fan base; 4) It’s a seller’s market.
Bieber is in some ways the most fascinating trade-deadline case, since the Guardians look like clear contenders. But here’s a list of 22 starting pitchers who could possibly be traded, with a 1-5 ranking in stars for their value (affected not only by performance and ability, but by salary and time until free agency), plus their percentage chances of being dealt.
All-time great two-way star Shohei Ohtani — the only five-star value despite his rental status — makes the very bottom of the list since it’s a long shot the Angels will deal the uber-talent.
1. Eduardo Rodriguez
Opt-out after the year hurts value. Tigers leadership wants to show progress, but it’s hard to make a case not to sell.
Value: ***
Eduardo Rodriguez USA TODAY Sports via Reuters ConTrade chances: 80 percent
2. Michael Lorenzen
Surprise All-Star was a two-way sensation before the all-time two-way sensation.
Value: **
Trade chances: 80 percent
3. Lucas Giolito
A top starter who’ll be a free agent. But will the White Sox sell?
Value: ***
Trade chances: 70 percent
4. Jack Flaherty
Talented, but inconsistent, right-hander will be a free agent after 2023.
Value: **
Trade chances: 70 percent
5. Jordan Montgomery.
Another free agent after the season, though like Giolito (and perhaps Flaherty) he’s certainly worthy of a qualifying offer.
Value: ***
Jordan Montgomery Getty ImagesTrade chances: 60 percent
6. Shane Bieber
The former Cy Young winner still has another year before he’s free, enhancing value.
Value: ****
Chances to be traded: 50 percent
7. James Paxton.
He’s healthy, and dealing.
Value: **
James Paxton APTrade chances: 50 percent
8. Marcus Stroman
Putting together a career year. Has an opt-out, diminishing value.
Value: ***
Trade chances: 50 percent
9. Kyle Hendricks
Still one of the smartest pitchers.
Value: **
Trade chances: 50 percent
10. Lance Lynn
Don’t be fooled by the 6-plus ERA, he could help someone.
Value: *
Trade chances: 50 percent
11. Patrick Corbin
Hasn’t been the same since the Nationals’ championship season, but already receiving interest.
Value: *
Trade chances: 40 percent
Patrick Corbin USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con12. Mike Clevinger
If healthy, can still get folks out.
Value: *
Trade chances: 40 percent
13. Aaron Civale
Guardians have so many talented kids, he could go, too.
Value: **
Trade chances: 40 percent
14. Paul Blackburn
Not much good happening for the Athletics. Still has years to go.
Value: *
Trade chances: 30 percent
15. Blake Snell
Padres have every intention of trying to stay in the game.
Value: ***
Chances: 20 percent
16. Carlos Carrasco
Like many Mets, not having usual year.
Value: *
Chances: 20 percent
Carlos Carrasco Corey Sipkin for the NY POST17. Jose Quintana
Could he be leaving just after he returns to action?
Value: **
Trade chances: 20 percent
18. Max Scherzer
Pitching better, but he’s 38, is making $43.33 million this year (and next year, since he won’t be opting out) and has veto rights.
Value: * (low due to salary)
Trade chances: 10 percent
Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer AP19. Justin Verlander
He’s also pitching well, but is 40, also is making $43.33M this year and next, and has veto rights. Value: 1 star (low due to salary).
Value: * (low due to salary)
Trade chances: 10 percent
20. Corbin Burnes
Brewers are very unlikely to sell.
Value: ****
Trade Chances: 5 percent
21. Dylan Cease
Talented right-hander won’t be a free agent until after 2025.
Value: ****
Chances: 5 percent
22. Shohei Ohtani
Would have enormous value even as a rental, for obvious reasons.
Value: *****
Trade chances: 5 percent
