For the mere price of $324 million, the Yankees turned their area of greatest uncertainty into a projected strength, weakened the starting force of their tormentor in Houston and now can even claim to have the best rotation in New York — which puts them in the conversation for the best in the game.
Gerrit Cole gives the Yankees the unquestioned ace they thought they were purchasing with Masahiro Tanaka and have not truly had since importing CC Sabathia. He might just be the No. 1 starter in the majors, right there with Jacob deGrom, and where do we sign up for a couple of Subway Series games that pit those two against one another?
But remember, the 2019 Yanks also won 103 games basically without Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery. Cole is among the top 10 starters in the game, Severino is in the next 10 and so is the version of James Paxton who excelled the final two months last year. Tanaka is in the 20-30 range considering his consistency and postseason excellence. Domingo German arguably would be in that group too if he were not awaiting word on a domestic violence suspension that is likely to cost him the early portion, but not the whole, of the 2020 season. And Montgomery, a 2017 rookie revelation, and J.A. Happ, assuming he is staying, would pitch in most rotations.
That is seven starters, plus the Yanks also have Deivi Garcia and Jonathan Loaisiga in reserve. Depth mattered to a group of executives and scouts I queried about who they thought had the best rotation — Yankees vs. Mets — and whom they currently perceive as having the five best rotations. Of the nine responses, all but one took the Yanks over the Mets and all but one had the Yanks in the top five rotations, with two picking the Yanks first. One scout had the Yankees first, the Mets second and declared, “New York City is the all-rotation winner.”
When it came to Yankees-Mets, the general sentiment was that it was a wash at the top with Cole/Severino vs. deGrom/Noah Syndergaard, but that the depth and strikeout ability up and down the rotation by Yankees starters created a differentiation.
The offseason is not over and the addition of a Hyun-jin Ryu or Dallas Keuchel could change perceptions. But going into Cole’s introductory press conference Wednesday, this is how I would rank my top 10 rotations (with help from my panel):
1. Nationals — They have the best Big Three in Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin — a trio now working on contracts guaranteed $595 million. Anibal Sanchez is a fine No. 4.
2. Yankees — One assistant GM said, “If I knew more about Severino’s health, this [picking the Yanks as best rotation in the majors] would be an easy winner.” Also, will Cole have acclimation problems? How much time will German miss? Will Paxton and Happ (assuming he remains) pitch all season like they did down the 2019 stretch? Lots of questions, but more answers than at any time since the Torre dynasty years.
3. Rays — The fathers of the opener might go with a standard rotation. Blake Snell, Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow have as high a Big Three upside — health permitting — as possessed by any team. The Rays are pondering letting Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough just be standard starters. They combined for a 3.99 ERA in 275 innings last year. Brent Honeywell and Brendan McKay provided upside depth.
4. Mets — DeGrom will try to join Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson as the only pitchers to win three straight Cy Youngs (they both won four in a row). Syndergaard is talented enough to be a No. 1, Marcus Stroman a No. 2, Steven Matz a No. 3. How closely do they lean toward their upside? Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha offer depth that could push Matz to the pen.
5. Dodgers — No team has more of a wait-and-see look. They were in on Cole and at least inquired on Corey Kluber before he went to the Rangers. They have a 1-2 of Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, plus Kenta Maeda and young talents Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Julio Urias. They have to replace Ryu, even if it is with Ryu.
6. Astros — This rotation looks a whole lot different without Cole. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke remain special, but they make Houston the only team currently counting on two starters who will be in their age-36 season or older. Lance McCullers Jr. returns from a lost 2019 after Tommy John surgery. Jose Urquidy pitched well in the postseason, but still has his detractors. Houston almost certainly will sign another version of Wade Miley to fill out the rotation.
7. Reds — Cincinnati did sign Miley, making them the majors’ only team currently with five starters who qualified for the ERA title last year (Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo, Anthony DeSclafani, Sonny Gray).
8. Indians — No team develops rotation pieces like the Indians do. Last season began with Kluber, Bauer and Carlos Carrasco as the top three starters. They combined for a 4.49 ERA in 43 starts (54 appearances) — 24 of the starts by Bauer, who was traded in July. Now Kluber is also gone. Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger lead the rotation with Adam Civale, Zach Plesac and Adam Plutko. They were very good last year, but also inflated by working against a historically awful Tigers offense against whom that quintet was 11-0 with a 1.64 ERA.
9. Cardinals — Jack Flaherty emerged as an ace down the stretch. Adam Wainwright showed he still had something left. If Dakota Hudson can fully harness his stuff, he is a No. 2 starter. Miles Mikolas recovered from a poor first month. The Cardinals can either plug Carlos Martinez back into the rotation or go with Korean lefty Kwang-hyun Kim.
10. Rangers — In 2019, Mike Minor and Lance Lynn combined to go 30-21 with a 3.63 ERA (and finish first and third in the majors in Baseball Reference’s pitching WAR). All other Texas starters were 15-39, 7.22. So they bought Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles and traded for Kluber.
