BOSTON — Is there a sweet spot? Is there a place in which you hit plenty of homers, but do not sell out to the point in which frequent strikeouts become the “acceptable” trade-off?
The Red Sox are at the 114th World Series representing this style. The Dodgers symbolize something more modern and Yankees-esque in which the exchange of power with punchouts is more tolerable.
That both styles are in attendance illustrates success can be found either way.
I wonder, though, if the Red Sox method becomes not only the more aesthetically pleasing variety, but a more dominant one to try to mimic. Already, there has been a phasing out of the Chris Carter/Pedro Alvarez-ish all-or-nothing hitter who provides limited value as a defender and a base runner.
Is the next manifestation the excising of players such as Joey Gallo types who have too many non-competitive at-bats en route to plenty of homers? Is Giancarlo Stanton in that group? Are the Red Sox in the World Series because they added a big-time producer in J.D. Martinez who limits the number of at-bats in which he is overmatched while the Yankees took on Stanton, who goes through sustained stretches of helpless hacks?
“We are getting to a greater level of sophistication,” Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi said. “As opposed to the symbiotic relationships in football or basketball, we always thought of baseball as just the hitter versus the pitcher. Is it enough to collect as much offensive talent as possible or should we be thinking about balancing hitters with different elements and skills? It is a fair question to ask and more and more we should be asking it about balancing a lineup.”
This should not diminish the importance of homers, especially when velocity and shifts, in particular, have made it harder to successfully put a ball in play. But batting average has been rendered to too low a place. A walk is better than an out, but it is not as good as a hit. A hit can send a runner first to third. It can create an error that advances runners. Getting the ball in play this time of year takes on greater import because defenders under stress are more likely to blunder.
“If you are looking to maximize runs in the season, I don’t think it matters [if you have high-homer, high-strikeout hitters],” Zaidi said. “But if you are trying to maximize consistency of an offense where you, say, score at least four runs as often as possible balance matters.”
Translation: A team that scores 10 and two runs has averaged six, but it is better to score six as frequently as possible. Feast-or-famine lineups are more likely to have greater fluctuation.
The Red Sox have minimized fluctuations. Consider that during the regular season, the Astros and Yankees pitching staffs had the lowest batting average against (.216) and OPS against (.520 and .523). Boston combined to hit .370 with a 1.152 OPS over the first two rounds to eliminate the Yankees and Astros. These are the game situations when putting the ball meaningfully into play are most valuable. The Red Sox excelled at it during the season and again so far in October.
“We live in an era that hitting .210 and 30 home runs and 70 RBIs is becoming acceptable,” Boston manager Alex Cora said. “We don’t mind strikeouts, but not in certain situations. We want them to put the ball in play. They’ve been having a very humbling approach throughout the series, staying up the middle, fouling off pitches and going the other way, putting the ball in play with two strikes.”
The Dodgers and Yankees ranked 13th and 14th, respectively, in strikeout rate at 22.6 and 22.7 percent. The 12 worst teams in that category did not make the playoffs. Four of the top five in lowest strikeout rate did reach the postseason. The Yankees hit the most homers ever at 267. The Dodgers led the NL at 235 — the third-highest NL total ever. The Dodgers’ slash line was .250/.333/.442 with a 10.2 percent walk rate, the Yankees were .252/.325/.439 with a 10 percent walk rate (remember also that pitchers hit more frequently for the NL team).
J.D. Martinez hugs Brock Holt.EPAThe Dodgers hit just .218 over the first two rounds (.190 with runners in scoring position). That has made the 13 homers they have hit in 11 games even more valuable. But they advanced mainly because of their pitching while the Yankees’ pitching failed them.
Obviously, teams wish they had it all. The Astros did last year, when they led the majors in lowest strikeout rate (19.3 percent) and homers.
“I think there is an inflection point where you have traded too much contact for power,” Zaidi said. “It is an interesting notion to think about.”
All six series played so far this postseason and one of the two wild-card games have been clinched by a team on the road. The World Series begins with the home team just 14-14. The Red Sox have the home-field advantage — but how much of an advantage.
Fenway Park has unique contours and, obviously, the Green Monster. The outfield, in particular, is tricky and the Red Sox have the best defensive outfield in the majors. They also have the best DH in Martinez and four games to use that DH.
But the Dodgers are the best-equipped NL team to use a DH. Los Angeles had 10 players who batted at least 290 times this year with at worse a .775 OPS, and that does not include October stalwart David Freese, who had a 1.130 OPS in 47 late-season plate appearances and a 1.033 OPS in 12 postseason plate appearances.
Both World Series pitching coaches conceded they are more cognizant of sign stealing than ever before and that having multiple signs and changing signs is vital. The Red Sox’s Dana LeVangie actually said that the issue has become so important that if minor league pitchers have not mastered multiple sign systems by Triple-A “they are behind the eight-ball.”
“There is so much video, so many cameras, it would be foolish to think teams aren’t taking advantage of what is accessible,” the Dodgers’ Rick Honeycutt said.
LeVangie said because he does not want his pitchers overly worried about this, he puts the onus on his catcher to hide intent and be conscious of potential theft. Boston catcher Christian Vazquez told me that base coaches and video have gotten so good at even seeing how the forearm moves as a way to tell how many fingers are being put down and, thus, a catcher has to be aware, too.
“Everyone is stealing signs,” Vazquez said. “So it is a big deal.”
But there is stealing signs through what you see on the field and stepping over the line by using technology to steal and relay information in real time. To which, LeVangie said, “I’m not paranoid, but there are teams out there willing to go beyond getting signals.”




