Bud Selig issued the ultimatum, now we’ll see how Jason Giambi responds.
All sides were quiet yesterday, one day after Selig told Giambi to testify to George Mitchell or face possible disciplinary action. Giambi’s agent, Arn Tellem, did not respond to phone or e-mail messages yesterday. It is likely Tellem and his staff are holed up trying to figure out if there is any reason to advise Giambi to talk to Mitchell, the former Senate Majority Leader conducting a probe into steroid use in baseball.
Brian Socolow, a partner in the New York law firm of Loeb & Loeb with a background in sports law, said he would be surprised if Giambi agreed to talk.
“Any time you talk with an investigator you need to be careful,” Socolow said. “There’s no obligation he talk with the investigator. They are probably weighing what benefit they get by talking to Senator Mitchell vs. what consequences they face if they don’t talk.”
Selig gave Giambi a deadline of two weeks to talk to Mitchell. Tellem, along with counsel provided by the Players Association, will probably use up most of that time to reach a decision.
Here is a rundown of four possible ways this could play out from likeliest to unlikeliest:
1. Giambi refuses to testify and Selig suspends him for 50 games. The union protests the decision and it goes to arbitration. The arbitrator sides with Giambi and the union, canceling Selig’s suspension. This allows Selig to save face publicly, showing he’s tough on steroids and tried to force Giambi to talk. It makes sense for Giambi, who will not want to open himself up to any more legal trouble or give the Yankees any ammunition to void his contract. ODDS: 5-1.
2. The parties reach a deal about what Mitchell can ask Giambi and grant him some form of immunity. This could prevent Giambi from testifying about any teammates, and limit questions to his own use of steroids. Sources say Selig is not interested in Giambi becoming a rat. He wants Giambi to talk about his own experiences, specifically what he told USA Today he wanted to apologize for. ODDS: 15-1.
3. After Giambi refuses to testify, an arbitrator upholds a suspension issued by Selig. This seems highly unlikely since there was no testing for performance-enhancing drugs before 2003 and no penalties until 2005. Even if Giambi did testify, it would be shocking if he admitted to anything more than he did to a federal grand jury. He told it that his steroid use stopped in 2003. A suspension probably would not stand up based solely on Giambi’s comments to USA Today. But there could be further evidence, including what Giambi told the commissioner’s office two weeks ago. ODDS: 50-1.
“We don’t know what other evidence there might be,” Socolow said. “It’s hard to say what would happen (before an arbitrator) without knowing what the evidence is.
4. Giambi rolls over and cooperates fully. He tells Mitchell things that would make Jose Canseco blush and becomes the Sammy “The Bull” of baseball. ODDS: 121 million to 1.
