For all of the laughing over Brodie Van Wagenen’s trade deadline strategy, maybe — just maybe — he had the right idea in mind. If nothing else, he’s made things interesting.
Last week, the Mets’ playoff chances stood at 3.9 percent on Fangraphs, a season low, and Van Wagenen was roundly panned for making a win-now move in trading for Marcus Stroman. On Thursday morning, those odds were up to 19.1 percent. Following Thursday’s win over the White Sox — the Amazin’s seventh straight — that number went up to 21.3%. They’re still a long shot, to be sure, but with a favorable stretch of the schedule coming, there’s room for optimism.
To look at this with clear eyes, the Mets still have next to no shot at the division, sitting 10.5 games back with three teams to jump. They are two games under .500, and despite being four games back in the wild card, there are five teams ahead of them for the second spot. The path in front of them is not easy, even now that they’ve committed to going for it.
But it is navigable.
The Phillies are four games ahead of the Mets and traded for Jason Vargas in the run-up to the deadline, yet their odds are just under four percent better — the kind of number that can flip on a dime.
Twenty-one is nothing to write home about. But it’s a lot better than three percent, and if things keep trending upward, it can make Van Wagenen look like a genius.


