Just because a player doesn’t do what was expected of him in the first half of the season doesn’t mean he won’t turn it around and give you the boost you need in the second half. You eye certain players in the draft for a reason, and it never is because of how they start. It is about how they show up when you need them most down the stretch.
Brian Dozier has become the quintessential second-half player over the past two seasons. He is a proven finisher.
Dozier is hitting .230 (he is a career .249 hitter) with 16 homers, 48 RBIs and five stolen bases (he is on pace to steal just nine bases, which would be the first time he didn’t have double-digit steals since 2012) and a .738 OPS. These numbers look OK, but not necessarily like a top-30 fantasy player.
Those numbers don’t tell the whole story, though.
Dozier’s approach at the plate has not changed, so much so that all of his numbers (outside of his home run-to-flyball rate, which is down a bit) are in line with what he has done over the past two seasons, when he excelled in the second half.
His hard-hit percentage, pull percentage, contact rate and swinging-strike percentage are all within 1 percent of where they were during his two best seasons, when he finished in the top 15 in MVP voting, but wasn’t an All-Star because of his lackluster first-half performances. He is drawing walks in 10.4 percent of his at-bats, slightly higher than his 9.5 percent career mark. He is striking out 19.6 percent of the time, right in line with his 19.5 percent career mark.
Is there more to indicate a strong second half from Minnesota’s second baseman? You bet, starting with the fact he already was heating up before the break. In his first 15 games this month, he was 17-for-57 (.298) with five homers, 17 RBIs, 14 runs and a 1.001 OPS. He also had walked seven times.
In 2016, Dozier hit .246 with 14 homers, 43 RBIs and a .786 OPS before the Midsummer Classic. What did he do after? He hit .291 with 28 homers, 56 RBIs and a .990 OPS. Last year, after hitting .242 with 13 homers, 41 RBIs and a .745 OPS in the first act, he hit .304 with 21 homers, 52 RBIs and a .985 OPS over the final 71 games.
Dozier’s .251 BABIP, as in previous years, indicates he has run into some bad luck. He entered the break with a .275 BABIP last year and a .258 mark in 2016, only to turn on the jets while sprinting toward the finish line.
Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. It doesn’t matter how you start, it is how you finish, and there are few players in the game Roto Rage would rather have guide their team to the finish line.
Here are some other first-half disappointments who should be able to turn it around:
- Not many were expecting Jonathan Schoop to duplicate his 2017 All-Star campaign. Not many were expecting the drop-off to be this bad, either. There is reason for hope for Baltimore’s second baseman. Over his first 15 games this month, he was 21-for-57 (.368) with two homers, four RBIs and a .941 OPS, and his .256 BABIP indicates there is room for improvement.
- Roto Rage remains all-in on Colorado’s Jon Gray, the unluckiest pitcher in the majors in the first half. His .376 BABIP, 3.03 FIP and 2.83 xFIP show he is much better than his 5.44 ERA and 8-7 record. He is striking out a career-high 11.3 per nine, looked sharp in his return to The Show on July 14 and remains available in 47 percent or more of ESPN and Yahoo leagues.
- If Gary Sanchez can stay healthy, his .194 BABIP suggests he easily will improve on that unsightly .190 average.
- Robbie Ray suffered through an injury-riddled first act, going 3-2 with a 5.03 ERA for Arizona. Despite his struggles, and going 1-2 with a 5.23 ERA over his past four starts since returning from the DL, the lefty is striking out 13.6 per nine innings, and his 3.58 xFIP and .343 BABIP indicate better days are ahead from the 2017 All-Star.
- If you look at Zack Godley’s 11-6 record and his 108 strikeouts (9.2 per nine innings), it doesn’t look all that bad. Then you see the Arizona righty’s 4.61 ERA, the 4.5 walks per nine innings and the 12 homers allowed, and the picture gets uglier. But, there is hope. Over his past eight appearances (seven starts), he is 6-1 with a 3.79 ERA and 46 strikeouts, and just two homers allowed. His .327 BABIP, as well as his 4.26 FIP and 4.08 xFIP indicate he can get better, too. We’re not talking Cy Young-worthy numbers, but we are talking about fantasy-worthy numbers.
Big Hits
Trevor Story SS, Rockies
The first-time All-Star had at least one hit in 19 of his past 21 games, going 32-for-84 (.381) with four homers, 12 RBIs, 10 runs, three stolen bases and a 1.076 OPS in that span.
Danny Duffy SP, Royals
Despite one bad start on July 4, when he allowed six runs in six innings, the lefty is 2-1 with a 2.03 ERA, 34 strikeouts and a .217 opponent average over his past five starts.
Stephen Piscotty OF, A’s
Entered the break on a nine-game hitting streak, going 13-for-38 (.342) with five homers, 10 RBIs, seven runs, a stolen base and a 1.164 OPS over that span.
Zack Greinke SP, D’backs
Has not lost since June 13, going 5-0 with a 1.66 ERA, 34:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a .232 opponent average over his past six starts.
Big Whiffs
Adrian BeltreGetty ImagesAdrian Beltre 3B, Rangers
His average has fallen from .309 to .286 after he went 7-for-41 (.171) with no homers, RBIs or runs over his first 12 games this month. He struck out 13 times in that span and owns a .361 OPS.
Michael Fulmer SP, Tigers
Has not won since June 14, going 0-4 with a 5.46 ERA, 27:10 strikeout-to-walk rate and .290 opponent average over his past five starts. Has also allowed five homers in that span.
Delino DeShields OF, Rangers
Did not have a hit over his past nine games, going 0-for-28 with 11 strikeouts and one walk in that span. He has stolen just one base in his past 22 games.
Sean Newcomb SP, Braves
Has been awful this month, going 0-3 with a 9.75 ERA (13 runs over his past 12 innings), seven strikeouts and 12 walks over his past three starts.
Check Swings
- Brad Hand still has value despite being traded to the Indians, where he likely will join Andrew Miller as a setup man. He is striking out a career-high 13.2 per nine, and there always is the chance he can steal the gig from Cody Allen (4.66 ERA, 10.9 K/9). If you’re looking for some saves, Kirby Yates appears to be up next for the Padres.
- Even with Manny Machado in the lineup, the Orioles managed to end the first half with an MLB-worst .227 batting average and the second fewest runs scored. They also had the worst on-base percentage, and the third worst slugging percentage and OPS. Now that Machado is with the Dodgers, how much worse will they be? Heading into Friday night, they had five players in their starting lineup who weren’t even hitting .230. Adam Jones, batting .275, is their best hitter, and he is a prime candidate to be traded. This is only going to get uglier.
- There were 10 home runs hit in Tuesday’s All-Star Game, shattering the previous record of six — which happened in 1951, 1954 and 1971. Wait, wasn’t there only one Mets pitcher at the All-Star Game?
Team Name of the Week
Gallo Hal
