At the Yankees game yesterday, here is the column I wrote. I’m sort of glad I’m not going to tonight’s game against Houston, since I’m running out of ways to write, “This team is ridiculous.”
The Yankees are now 4-0 in one-run games; last year, they went 22-25 in those games yet still won 95 games overall, most in the American League. So while last year’s Orioles made all sort of headlines for their remarkable, 29-9 showing in one-run games, the truth is that we overstate the importance of these – because, I suspect, we like the idea of “gritty” teams “finding ways to win.” This year’s Orioles are 4-5 in one-run games, yet they’re 15-10, putting them on a pace to win 97 games – four more than last year.
As I wrote in my column, one-run wins are near-losses, and one-run losses near-wins. Last year’s Mets started out 6-1 in one-run games, building up a 13-9 record, and they wound up 20-22 (and 74-88, overall) for the season. The 2007 Yankees lost 10 of their first 12 one-run games en route to a 21-29 start, then won 16 of their remaining 27 and climbed to 94-68 for the year.
So basically, with last year’s Orioles a memorable exception – and this year’s Orioles already underlining that exception – a team won’t be defined by its record in one-run games.
Maybe the Yankees, with a ragtag lineup just like the ’12 O’s (for now, at least) but a much more accomplished pitching staff, can duplicate that magic. It’s not a safe bet, though.
We should point out, too, that while Baltimore carried a negative run differential for the bulk of last year, dramatically outplaying their Pythagorean expectation, these Yankees have scored 112 runs and allowed 97, giving them a Pythagorean won-loss record of 14-10. They’re just one game over. Give us another four weeks, and we’ll have a much better feel for what we’re seeing here.
–Good Lord, the Mets. I was at Citi Field on Friday, and before the game, the Mets were still feeling OK about themselves while Charlie Manuel and the Phillies were reeling. Three games later, not so much. Yeesh.
As we’re constantly trying to determine when is the proper time to sound the panic alarm/declare a team legitimate, here’s one early gauge I use: Is the team one good week/bad week away from considerably turning around its fortunes? Mathematically, are more than seven games above/below .500, so that even a 7-0 or 0-7 week wouldn’t take them to the other side?
The Red Sox, at 18-7, are the only winning team that has innoculated itself against a one-week speed bump. On the losing side, we have the Blue Jays (9-17), Astros (7-18) and Marlins (6-19) who need more than one outstanding week to get back into it.
The Mets, at 10-13, are not yet in that danger zone, and their immediate schedule couldn’t be more favorable, as Matt Harvey kicks off a three-game series tonight against baseball’s worst team the Marlins (and their exciting young starting pitcher, Joe Fernandez) in Miami. If they can’t take at least two out of three , then they’ll head to Atlanta, home of the NL’s best team the Braves, with the chance of really entering that deep-trouble zone.
What to make of the Mets so far? They’ve actually outscored their opponents by one run so far, 113-112, so they’re underperforming. The keys? A bad bullpen once again _ Can they ever get this right? _ and a lack of clutch hitting. With two outs and runners in scoring position, they’re hitting .213/.307/.303.
Back over to the Yankees, by welcoming the AL’s worst team the Astros to the Stadium tonight through Wednesday, they’re in a position to jump ahead to a record where they would be protected against one terrible week. Good timing, it would appear.
–Now this week’s Pop Quiz answer. Alan Van Ees of Las Vegas gave us this one: Name the Hall of Fame broadcaster whose voice can be heard in the 1984 film “The Flamingo Kid.”
The answer is Mel Allen.
If you have a tidbit that correlates baseball to popular culture, please send it to me at kdavidoff@nypost.com.
–Have a great day.
