There is no better feeling in fantasy sports than finding the gem in the rough, the streaming option who develops into being an everyday option. It seems they’re few and far between, but if you look carefully, you’ll find them hiding in plain sight.
Zach Eflin is 6-2 with a 3.02 ERA, 57 strikeouts, 14 walks, a 1.129 WHIP and a .236 opponent average, despite going 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in May.
In June, Eflin didn’t allow more than two runs to score in any of his five starts, going 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA, 28:6 strikeout-to-walk rate and a .218 opponent average. He did this against the Cubs, Brewers (twice), Nationals and Yankees — against whom he pitched seven shutout innings Wednesday.
From his previous big league experience, there was no indication he was capable of this type of consistent performance, considering he was 4-10 with a 5.85 ERA over 22 career starts from 2016-17.
So, is this just an mid-level starter who has hit a hot stretch, or an emerging fantasy option? Roto Rage believes it’s the latter.
In his first two seasons, Eflin never really was healthy. The 24-year-old once said he had suffered knee pains since he was really young. He had surgery in 2016 to repair the patellar tendons in both knees, and he also missed some time with a shoulder issue, so we’re now seeing a healthy pitcher with the ability to become a fantasy rotation mainstay.
Eflin is throwing harder than ever. In 2016 and 2017, according to Brooks Baseball, his fastball averaged 92-93 mph. This year, his four-seamer is averaging 95 mph, which is in the top 30 among all starters.
He is striking out a career-high 9.1 per nine innings while keeping his walks in check (2.2 per nine). His strikeout-to-walk percentage (18.5) ranks 30th out of starting pitchers who have thrown 50 innings or more. He also ranks 39th in strikeout rate (24.5 percent) and is also among the top 30 starters in WHIP (26th) and ERA (22nd), according to Frangraphs.
Eflin’s FIP (2.85) and BABIP (.295) don’t appear to indicate regression will rear its ugly head, either. This looks like a young pitcher finding his way on a up-and-coming team.
There is no reason Eflin should be available in 55 percent or more of ESPN or Yahoo leagues, but he is. Expect his ownership to increase, especially since his next two starts likely will be against the Orioles and Mets, two of the worst offenses in the game. Don’t wait to add him.
Here are some other hurlers, owned in 50 percent or less of leagues, who deserve a look:
- Mike Leake has pitched 22 games as a Mariner, and he is 11-5 with a 3.67 ERA (his lowest with any of the four teams he’s been on), 6.0 strikeouts per nine and just 1.7 walks per nine innings. He is 8-4 with a 4.01 ERA and 66 strikeouts for the season, and 5-1 with a 2.74 ERA and .230 opponent average over his past 10 starts (he lowered his ERA from 6.28 to 4.01 in that span). He isn’t going to blow opponents away with his stuff, but he is dependable.
- In three starts this month, Cleveland’s Shane Bieber (the second-most added pitcher in ESPN leagues this week) was 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA, 21 strikeouts and just three walks. His next two starts should come against the Royals and the Reds, before a game against the Yankees where he likely should be on the bench.
- Zack Wheeler’s last win came April 29, and he has gone 0-5 with a 4.59 ERA in 11 starts since. There are positives, though. His fastball is averaging 96.98 mph, according to Brooks Baseball, the fastest he has thrown since 2014, and his 3.66 FIP and 4.01 xFIP indicate he has been unlucky (besides just being a Met). He was also 0-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 33 strikeouts in six June starts. These numbers, despite his lack of wins (partially the Mets’ fault for lack of run support), are worthy of being owned in more than just 10-12 percent of leagues.
- Ivan Nova returned from the disabled list this month to go 2-0 with a 1.75 ERA and 21:5 strikeout-to-walk rate for the Pirates while holding hitters to a .185 average. His schedule before the All-Star break (likely against the Dodgers and Nationals) looks iffy, but he’ll come out of the break to likely face the Reds and Mets.
- Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta has thrown two straight scoreless outings (13 innings) while striking out 17, walking one and holding the Pirates and Royals to a .070 average.
Big Hits
Jesus Aguilar 1B, Brewers
He is hitting .323 (21-for-65) with nine homers, 22 RBIs, 13 runs scored and a 1.201 OPS over his past 19 games. He also walked six times and struck out 19.
Matt Carpenter 1B/3B, Cardinals
Raised his average from .215 to .260 over his past 21 games after going 30-for-83 (.361) with eight homers, 15 RBIs, 13 walks, 23 runs and a 1.195 OPS.
Alex Bregman 3B, Astros
Had at least one hit in 21 of his first 24 games this month, going 31-for-100 (.310) with nine homers, 26 RBIs, 22 runs, a stolen base, 12 walks and a 1.071 OPS.
Zack Greinke SP, Diamondbacks
He didn’t allow a run in his past two starts, and was 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA, 18 strikeouts and a .219 opponent average in his past three. He was 5-1 with a 2.97 ERA and a 36:9 strikeout-to-walk rate in six starts this month.
Big Whiffs
Gio GonzalezEPAGio Gonzalez SP, Nationals
Has not won since May 28, going 0-3 with a 8.44 ERA over five starts this month. He has a 10.64 ERA, seven strikeouts, seven walks and a .354 opponent average over his past three starts.
Salvador Perez C, Royals
In his past 13 games, the 28-year-old is 8-for-53 (.151) with no homers, RBIs or walks, 16 strikeouts, just two runs scored and a .336 OPS.
Kyle Hendricks SP, Cubs
He Is 1-4 with a 7.03 ERA, 18 strikeouts, 15 walks and a .280 opponent average in five starts this month. He has allowed 13 earned runs and 10 walks over his past three starts.
Greg Bird 1B, Yankees
Entered Friday night with just two hits in his past 23 at-bats (.087) over his previous 10 games. He had one RBI, two runs, 10 strikeouts and a .431 OPS in that span.
Check Swings
- Wilmer Flores had at least one hit in 11 of his first 13 games since returning from the DL. He had at least one RBI in seven of his past eight games, going 8-for-28 (.286) with two homers and 11 RBIs in that span.
- How bad have the Royals been this month? Not only did they have the lowest average (.190) before Friday night, they had the fewest RBIs (51), runs scored (53) and hits (147), as well as the second fewest homers (14). They also had the lowest on-base percentage (.253), slugging percentage (.302) and OPS (.555) in the majors. Their pitching staff had the second worst ERA (.5.08), the second fewest strikeouts (171) and the third-highest opponent average (.265).
- From the TMI vault: Archie Bradley this week admitted he once “pooped” his pants before pitching a clean inning in a game. The D’backs should at least be happy the reliever loaded his pants and not the bases. Bradley, who should be the new spokesman for Imodium, maybe should’ve been in the “Big Whiffs” section. In all honesty, poop jokes are not my favorite, but they are a solid No. 2.
Team Name of the Week
Mauer Patch Kids
