We are living in a world of uncertainty.
We don’t know when we will be able to see friends, family, colleagues or loved ones outside of Google Hangouts, FaceTime or Zoom chats. We don’t know when we will next be able to have a meal in a restaurant, or when we’ll be able to stand within 6 feet of another person without getting a dirty look.
We also don’t know when we will see another baseball game. What we do know, though, is that if games are played in 2020, Red Sox ace Chris Sale, like Yankees ace Luis Severino, won’t be on the mound for any of them.
After his elbow didn’t respond well following some throwing earlier this week, Sale — who dealt with a flexor strain and elbow issues before spring training — was shuttered because of the coronavirus pandemic. He became the second big-name AL East hurler to opt for Tommy John surgery in the past month.
Even before COVID-19 was a thing and Sale made this decision, there were too many red flags for the veteran lefty.
From 2012-17, Sale was one of the most dominant pitchers, making 181 appearances (180 starts) and pitching 1,230 innings (an average of 205 per season). He was 87-55 with a 3.01 ERA, 1,441 strikeouts (10.5 strikeouts per nine innings) and just 266 walks (1.9 per nine innings).
He led the league in strikeouts twice, including in 2017 when he made 308 batters whiff, had the most innings pitched (214¹/₃) in 2017 and twice led the league in complete games (2013 and 2016).
Sale was an All-Star every year from 2012-18, and finished in the top six of Cy Young voting every season during that span. He never won, but he did finish in second place in 2017 and third in 2014. The left-hander also received substantial MVP consideration from 2015-18, finishing as high as ninth in 2017 (Corey Kluber is the only pitcher who received more votes than him that year).
The problems started in 2018. Despite going 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA, 237 strikeouts and a career-low 0.861 WHIP, Sale was limited to 27 starts (158 innings) because of left shoulder inflammation. In 2019, left elbow inflammation ended Sale’s season after 25 starts (147¹/₃ innings). He finished 6-11 with a career-worst 4.11 ERA and 2.3 walks per nine, his highest total since his first year as a permanent fixture in the White Sox’s rotation in 2012. He did strike out 218 batters, but he never seemed right.
Though Sale was still a productive fantasy option the past two seasons, it was two straight years in which he started fewer games, pitched fewer innings and saw his velocity dip. More importantly, it was two seasons cut short by arm issues. That’s the main reason Roto Rage was not a huge fan of Sale this season, ranking him No. 17 among starting pitchers on Feb. 29 (and even that was being generous).
If you had your fantasy draft before coronavirus turned our world upside down, there’s a good chance you drafted Sale (or Severino) as a key piece for your rotation — Sale’s average draft position was 36.86 as of Feb. 19, according to Fantasy Alarm. It dropped to 38.02 by March 2, but fell to 71.30 by March 16.
Maybe your league will be open to redrafting. You never know, anything’s possible in these uncertain times. Truth is, you were drafting under the impression the season was to begin March 26. Now, who knows? Talk to your league, not because Sale, Severino or even Justin Verlander are hurt, but because times have changed (and it’s fun to draft).
If your draft has been postponed, then you simply take Sale off your draft board. In a keeper or dynasty league, if you have an IR spot available, you can get Sale for cheap and keep him for next year, when he should be fully recovered (he does have plenty of time, at this point). As of Friday morning, his ADP had dropped to 294.46.
Will he be any good when he returns? Well, that’s about as big an unknown as what’s going on in the world right now. Roto Rage would rather have the 26-year-old Severino, but Sale cannot be ruled out. He has been a top-tier starter his entire career, so you can at least live with the hope that the comeback will be greater than the setback.
