Happy Opening Day! Well, sort of. Remember when the season would truly start on a Monday, and not with three games on a Sunday, for crying out loud? Remember when ballplayers would play through conditions like Monday’s at Yankee Stadium and men were men?
Sorry. Now I’m sounding like Walt “Get off my lawn!” Kowalski from “Gran Torino.”
Anyway, the start of baseball season means that it’s time once again to put it out there and give this predictions thing a shot. I haven’t accurately forecast a World Series champion since the 1999 Yankees, but what’s the harm in trying?
Here’s a breakdown of the thinking behind my picks. And if you want a few laughs, here are my picks from last year.
AL East
1. Blue Jays
2. Yankees (WC)
3. Rays
4. Red Sox
5. Orioles
Yet again, nothing would surprise me in this division. These picks could turn out to be upside down and I wouldn’t bat an eye. But I went with the Blue Jays because, man, oh man, that offense. And I think the pitching staff has enough live, young arms to hold enough leads.
David OrtizGetty ImagesI have the Yankees finishing 88-74, and this year, I found myself making many decisions largely on the criteria of organizational strength. The Yankees generally make the most of what they get, if not always the most of what they have. At least one of these new relievers — Johnny Barbato, Luis Cessa and Kirby Yates — will develop into a high-impact, high-leverage guy, because that’s what the Yankees historically do. I think the starting rotation will step up to cover for a less reliable offense, and the double-play duo of Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius will provide strong two-way play up the middle.
Going back to organizational strength, I still wonder whether the Red Sox are operating synergistically. They have a president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, presiding over a manager, John Farrell, he didn’t hire. They have an ownership that has morphed from visionary to jittery. They have a retiring icon, David Oritz, who will be enjoying a farewell tour reminiscent of those for Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter that turned the rest of the Yankees into supporting casts of sorts. They have a new ace, David Price, who has made it pretty clear that going to Boston wasn’t his first choice, and the rotation depth behind him is questionable. Hence my belief that the Sawx, with their 2015 busts occupying a new position (Hanley Ramirez, first base) and a new vantage point (Pablo Sandoval, the bench), will still struggle to put it all together.
AL Central
1. Indians
2. Tigers (WC)
3. Royals
4. Twins
5. White Sox
I like the Indians a lot. Their starting rotation has the potential to be special. Their bullpen is solid. Their lineup is … shaky, yet there’s a future star in shortstop Francisco Lindor and a few interesting veterans in Marlon Byrd, Mike Napoli and Juan Uribe. There’s an outstanding manager in Terry Francona. Add those up, and this team can win its first division title since 2007.
The Tigers went nuts over the winter, making a slew of acquisitions headlined by Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann, and those will allow Detroit to leap over the Royals, whose incredible run will hit a speed bump as their bullpen finally turns human. It has to, doesn’t it?
AL West
1. Mariners
2. Rangers
3. Astros
4. A’s
5. Angels
I picked the Mariners to win the AL West last year, too, and that didn’t work out very well. Seems like I have less company on this one this season. For me, Robinson Cano seems determined to clear his name, and new general manager Jerry DiPoto’s massive redesign has given Seattle a more athletic club that will get on base more often, play better defense and protect more leads.
The Rangers and Astros don’t leave much over which to quibble, but in the AL, with every team going for it, someone has to fall short. Maybe the Rangers’ bullpen and the Astros’ starting rotation don’t deliver as hoped. Or maybe the Astros’ young core just struggles to take that next step of being the hunted rather than the under-the-radar entry.
ALCS: Indians over Blue Jays. Toronto president Mark Shapiro takes on his old team, which relies on its power rotation to defuse the Jays’ nuclear lineup.
NL East
1. Mets
2. Nationals (WC)
3. Marlins
4. Phillies
5. Braves
You can get all worked up about who’s better, the Mets or Yankees, but what you must appreciate more than anything is just how different their respective workplace environments will be this year. For at least the first couple of months and quite possibly beyond, the Yankees’ only breathers of sort will come when they play the Rockies and Padres. Every AL series will be against a team trying to win.
Nationals manager Dusty Baker (12) with combustible closer Jonathan PapelbonAPThe Mets, on the other hand, get 19 games apiece against the Braves and Phillies, both of whom are profoundly more likely to draft first overall than raise a championship banner in the spring of 2017.
So that must be kept in mind when projecting the Mets and the rest of the NL. And the Mets have some serious talent. Enough, I believe, to defend their NL East title and even win a few more regular-season games than last year when you factor in all of the people (Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard, for starters) who will experience their first full Mets seasons.
The Nationals? I go back to organizational strength, and I have major questions about this organization. They targeted Bud Black as their top choice as manager, then couldn’t get a deal done. They swung and missed at free agents Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Ben Zobrist, and the questions about their clubhouse culture factored into at least some of their failures. But Dusty Baker, even on his back nine, will be an upgrade over the departed Matt Williams, and this team still teems with talent. And again, they play the Braves and Phillies 19 times each.
I spent Friday and Saturday with the Marlins at Marlins Park, and everyone I spoke with there likes the club’s core of talent … and worries about the lack of depth.
NL Central
1. Cubs
2. Cardinals
3. Pirates
4. Reds
5. Brewers
Let’s start by inserting “Reds and Brewers” into the previous division’s “Braves and Phillies” and go from there. Yeah, I’m on the Cubs bandwagon. Whatever flaws emerge, they’ll address with trades in July. If you were to play the “What could possibly go wrong?” game, I’d go with the starting rotation. I wouldn’t bet on that, though.
The Cardinals and Pirates both should be typically competitive. Yet both clubs experienced quiet winters, and I think that will come back to bite them during an offseason when the Mets, Cubs and Giants were among those that really went for it. St. Louis can’t replicate its pitching dominance of last season, right? And the Pirates eventually have to not come up annually with five brilliant acquisitions, right?
NL West
1. Dodgers
2. Giants (WC)
3. Diamondbacks
4. Padres
5. Rockies
I submitted these before A.J. Pollock’s terrible injury, because I didn’t like the Diamondbacks’ roster depth. The Pollock injury is quite a blow for this win-now operation.
Clayton KershawAPYeah, the Dodgers, who experienced arguably the most compelling winter and spring of any club. Despite their many misfortunes both in the front office (Zack Greinke’s departure to Arizona, turning away from the Aroldis Chapman trade) and the field (major injuries to Andre Ethier and Brett Anderson, among others), I’m going with their roster depth and Clayton Kershaw. And with Dave Roberts acting more in synchronicity with the front office that hired him than did Don Mattingly, whom the previous administration hired.
Gotta love the Giants pouring money into their team with purchases of Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and Denard Span. I don’t think they’ll work out perfectly, although well enough to get San Francisco back into the playoffs for its even-numbered year visit.
NLCS: Cubs over Mets. Yeah, I know, the Mets have the superior starting rotation, so how could they possibly lose a playoff series? Because playoff series are small samples and the expected doesn’t always happen. And because the Cubs lineup can mash.
World Series: Indians over Cubs. Come on, how great would this be? The team that hasn’t won it all since 1948 versus the team that hasn’t won it all since 1908. Francona against his old boss Theo Epstein. Four games postponed by blizzards. It’s gonna be awesome! The Indians will prevail because of that starting rotation. And because what, the Cubs will make their first World Series since 1945 and then win it, just like that? Don’t think so.
Let’s catch up on Pop Quiz questions:
1. From Gary Mintz of South Huntington: In a 1980 episode of “Happy Days,” Howard Cunningham tells Fonzie about a Hall of Fame baseball player who struggled as a manager because the players weren’t as good as he was. Name the Hall of Famer.
2. From Lou Champy of Trinity, NC: Name the former Major League Baseball commissioner whose photo can be seen in the 2004 film “Sideways.”
3. From Steve Cohen of Manhattan: Which cast member of “Laverne & Shirley” has worked as a scout for Major League Baseball teams?
4. From Gary Mintz again: In a 2016 episode of “The Goldbergs” – which takes place in the 1980s – a future general manager wins his Philadelphia area high school’s “Athlete of the Year” award. Name the future GM.
Some promotions:
1. On Monday, April 11 at 7 p.m., a play called “Jews on First” will be performed at the American Jewish Historical Society on West 16th Street. It’s your standard Jewish musical about baseball. You can purchase tickets here.
2. The 1857 “Laws of Base Ball” document, about which you can learn more about here, will go up for bid in SCP Auctions’ 2016 Spring Premier online auction from April 6 through 23 at http://www.scpauctions.com. It looks pretty awesome if you have a small fortune to spare.
3. The second annual Hank’s Yanks Golf Classic, which raises money for the Hank’s Yanks youth baseball team founded by Yankees bigwig Hank Steinbrenner, will take place on June 23 at the Trump Golf Links at Ferry Point. The Yankees’ CC Sabathia is scheduled to be honored, and his teammates Carlos Beltran and Alex Rodriguez also are slated to attend, as well as myriad other ex-Yankees and celebrities.
4. Speaking of ex-Yankees, 1998 alumnus Homer Bush has come out with a book, “Hitting Low in the Zone,” which espouses his beliefs about the best way to hit in Major League Baseball today. It’s an informative read.
Your Pop Quiz answers:
1. Rogers Hornsby
2. Bart Giamatti
3. David L. “Squiggy” Lander
4. Ruben Amaro Jr.



