You can read anything into the numbers baseball drowns in during an era in which there seemingly is a statistic that measures a player’s performance based on what hand he uses to put a protective cup in place, but one number is simple to analyze: The Yankees’ chances of winning the AL East.
If the Yankees, with the best record in baseball, play a game above .500 across the final 77 games, they will win the division.
A 39-38 ledger from now until the end of the season would give the Yankees a 91-71 record. In order for the Orioles to tie the Yankees they would have to go 46-31. Tampa Bay would need a 46-30 mark. The Red Sox and the Blue Jays would need to go 48-28.
Are those teams capable of playing that well? Possibly, but that’s not the way to bet. Are the Yankees going to play just one game above .500 the rest of the way? That definitely isn’t the way to bet.
Because Major League Baseball added a second wild-card team, the two wild-card clubs in each league will play one game to see who advances to the division series. So, there is much greater emphasis on winning the division.
CC Sabathia is scheduled to return from the disabled list next week. At some point — though the Yankees can’t guarantee when — Brett Gardner is expected back from a right elbow injury that has limited him to nine games this year. Yet, the Yankees can’t guarantee when. Joba Chamberlain is set to make his second rehab outing this weekend.
“I don’t think any of us has played our best baseball,’’ Mark Teixeira said of the first half that ended with the Yankees leading the Orioles by seven games, the Rays by 7 1/2 and the Red Sox and Blue Jays by 9 1/2.
Outside of MVP candidate Robinson Cano, Teixeira is correct: There is room for improvement throughout the lineup.
While Derek Jeter (.308), Nick Swisher (51 RBIs) and Curtis Granderson (23 HRs; 61 runs) played well in the first half, Alex Rodriguez and Russell Martin need to turn it up.
The benchmark for a good year from Rodriguez is 30 homers and 100 RBIs, something he did from 1998 to 2010. He steps in tonight against the Angels at Yankee Stadium with 13 homers and 38 RBIs and is going to need a big second half to get to 30 and 100.
Nevertheless, the Yankees built a seven-game lead without maximum contributions from Rodriguez and practically nothing offensively from Martin, who is hitting .179.
“I am proud of these guys,’’ manager Joe Girardi said of his club that lost Mariano Rivera in early May and watched Andy Pettitte vanish in late June. “The one thing these guys do is find a way to win games.’’
Are they good enough to keep general manager Brian Cashman from making a trade prior to the July 31 deadline for the second straight year?
The buzz throughout baseball is Cashman isn’t interested in Philadelphia’s Cole Hamels or Milwaukee’s Zack Greinke, but one injury to a starting pitcher could change that if they are on the market. The Phillies’ Shane Victorino would improve the outfield, but at what cost?
The Yankees believe Pettitte will resurface from his broken ankle in September. Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, Freddy Garcia and Hiroki Kuroda have been solid starters lately.
Gardner’s speed on the bases and Gold-Glove-caliber defense in left field have been missed, but Raul Ibanez and Andruw Jones, especially Jones lately, have been more than adequate filling in for Gardner.
Do the math. Then, get ready for the ALDS.
