Logo

And so they meet again.

For the third time since 2017 — and the first since 2019 — the Yankees and Astros will square off in the ALCS, beginning Wednesday in Houston, for a chance to go to the World Series. The Astros won both of the previous matchups, including the 2017 showdown that was ultimately tainted by revelations of Houston’s illegal sign-stealing scheme.

This time around, the Yankees got there by eking out a victory over the Guardians in a five-game ALDS, while the Astros swept the Mariners in three games to reach their sixth straight ALCS. The Astros won five of the seven regular-season matchups against the Yankees this year — including a combined no-hitter in The Bronx.

Now, the Yankees will get another chance to “slay the dragon,” as Aaron Boone put it in July.

The Post’s Greg Joyce takes a look at how the Yankees and Astros match up for the ALCS:

At the plate

Getting on base: Three of the top four finishers in on-base percentage in the American League are featured in this series: Aaron Judge (.425) and the Astros’ Yordan Alvarez (.406) and Jose Altuve (.387). As a team, the Yankees got on base at a .325 clip (with the Astros close behind at .319), though the Yankees’ number includes DJ LeMahieu (.357) and Andrew Benintendi (.331), who remain out for the ALCS with injuries after missing the ALDS. Altuve went ice cold in the ALDS (0-for-16), but first baseman Yuli Gurriel helped pick up the slack (6-for-15).

Edge: Even


  Aaron Judge hit a solo home run during the Yankees’ ALDS series clinching win against the Cleveland Guardians. Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post Aaron Judge hit a solo home run during the Yankees’ ALDS series clinching win against the Cleveland Guardians. Charles Wenzelberg/New York Post

Power: Judge vs. Alvarez could be one of the best deep-threat showdowns in the league. Judge finished the regular season as the new AL home run king with 62, while Alvarez clubbed 37. But Alvarez demolished two homers in the ALDS, both game-winners (one of them a walk-off) and appears to be a home run threat any time he steps to the plate. Harrison Bader provided the Yankees an unexpected source of power in the ALDS, drilling three home runs in the first four games.

Edge: Yankees

On the basepaths

Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker is the top speed threat on either side after finishing the regular season with 25 steals and then swiping another bag in the ALDS. Tucker, Altuve (18) and Jeremy Peña (11) make up the majority of the Astros’ stolen bases. Isiah Kiner-Falefa led the Yankees with 22 steals during the regular season (they stole 102 as a team), but he lost his starting job late in the ALDS and may not get many more chances on the bases.

Edge: Even

In the field

Infield: The Yankees shook up their infield in Game 4 of the ALDS by benching shaky Kiner-Falefa (whom the metrics graded better than the eye test this season at short) and replacing him with Oswaldo Cabrera. The change could give them a better look next to third baseman Josh Donaldson, who has been one of the Yankees’ best defenders this season, along with catcher Jose Trevino. The Yankees added Oswald Peraza to their ALCS roster as an infield option. Peña, a rookie, has been impressive at shortstop, leading the majors with 16 Defensive Runs Saved at the position, per Fielding Bible. But the rest of the Astros’ infield is less convincing, including Altuve, who ranked as the majors’ worst second baseman by DRS.

Edge: Yankees


  Houston Astros’ Yordan Alvarez has been an offensive juggernaut. AP Photo/David J. Phillip Houston Astros’ Yordan Alvarez has been an offensive juggernaut. AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Outfield: Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers, who have split center field duties for the Astros, are two of the best in the majors defensively at their position. Meyers, though, was removed from the ALCS roster. Tucker is also strong in right field, but Alvarez can be a liability in left. The Yankees upgraded their outfield by adding Bader in center field, though the former Gold Glover had some ups and downs in the ALDS. Shifting Judge back to right field makes the Yankees stronger there, while left field could be in flux if Cabrera sticks at shortstop.

Edge: Astros

Bench

The Yankees’ bench often seemed like dead weight during the ALDS. They did not often use Matt Carpenter as a pinch-hitter or Tim Locastro as a pinch-runner, and Aaron Hicks is now out for the remainder of the postseason. Marwin Gonzalez is off the ALCS roster. The Astros got their backups more involved in the ALDS, including rookie David Hensley, Mauricio Dubon, veteran Aledmys Diaz and former Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez.

Edge: Even

On the mound

Rotation: The Astros are lined up to roll out a rotation of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr. and either Luis Garcia or Cristian Javier. It’s about as strong of a top four as there is, even if Verlander got tagged for six runs and 10 hits in four innings against the Mariners. The Yankees are expected to match that with (in some order) Luis Severino, Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes and Jameson Taillon. Cole pitched like a $324 million ace in his two ALDS starts while Cortes and Severino were effective, if not as sharp as they were during the regular season.

Edge: Astros

Bullpen: The Yankees somehow made do with their battered bullpen in the ALDS, though just barely, and it wasn’t always pretty. Lefty Wandy Peralta has been invaluable and Clay Holmes, further removed from his shoulder strain, could be more readily available. Boone’s small circle of trust also includes Jonathan Loaisiga and Lou Trivino. Frankie Montas is back for this series and could provide a boost as a reliever. In the ALDS, the Astros’ bullpen gave up just one run across 20 ¹/₃ innings. Closer Ryan Pressly was 33-for-37 in save opportunities during the regular season while right-hander Bryan Abreu has become a weapon as a setup man. One thing missing from the Houston bullpen? A lefty reliever. Houston added RHP Seth Martinez for the ALCS, a strong option against right-handed hitters.

Edge: Astros


  Justin Verlander at an Astros’ workout ahead of the ALCS on Oct. 18, 2022. Getty Images Justin Verlander at an Astros’ workout ahead of the ALCS on Oct. 18, 2022. Getty Images

Manager

Dusty Baker is still hunting for his first World Series title, but has guided the Astros to the ALCS again in his third year at the helm in Houston. Boone may have had Holmes’ best interests in mind when he held him out of ALDS Game 3, but some miscommunication made it a controversy. Boone’s lack of reliable bullpen options make his decisions loom even larger.

Edge: Astros

Intangibles

The Astros wrapped up their series on Saturday and then got a few days off as they watched the Yankees and Guardians battle it out. That time off has possibly hurt other teams this postseason, but the Astros hardly seemed to mind it in the ALDS. The Yankees will try to make the most of their momentum, but their history with the Astros will hang over them until they change it.

Edge: Astros

Comments
anonymous profile image
Powered by RoundtableBuilt on infrastructure designed for real-time media. Learn more at RTB.io.© Roundtable 2026. By using this site you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy