There’s a new creature in the NFL whose intimidating presence hangs over free agency and the first round of the draft.
It’s called “Day 2 Receiver,” and it can be felt before it’s seen, like the unmistakable sound of a stick cracking far off in the forest.
Receivers Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle gradually slipped down mock drafts from all three included in the top-10 picks in January to the Giants possibly having their choice of two Thursday night with pick No. 11. The same trend happened with the top three receivers last year — none of whom produced as well in their rookie seasons as Justin Jefferson, who was the fifth WR taken.
The free-agent receiver market was depressed, except at the very top, the past two offseasons.
Why? Because the NFL is wise to college football’s unprecedented development of receivers and the high probability of landing a game-changer on the second day of the draft, when the total cost of a four-year contract will range from about $8.6 million at the top of the second round to $4.7 million at the bottom of the third round.
“There’s definitely a belief around a lot of teams that you can wait and get quality guys,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah told The Post. “You might see [the top three] drift a little bit, but I still think you are going to see all those top guys go in the first round. Then we will be looking back a year from now and talking about how impressive the Day 2 guys are, because the college game is pumping these guys out like crazy.”
Juju Smith-Schuster and A.J. Brown were both highly productive as second-round wide receivers. Getty ImagesSo, is wide receiver the new running back?
If you think it’s nonsense that within five years receivers mostly could fall out of the top-20 picks and be recycled after rookie contracts, think of how crazy that would have sounded during the era from 1991-2006 to question — as is popular today — whether running backs are worthy of first-round picks or second contracts. In that 16-year span, seven different running backs won NFL MVPs, and 10 were top-five draft picks.
“It’s going to trend that way,” Jeremiah said, “but I don’t know that it will ever go as far as running back because it’s a different wear-and-tear on a receiver compared to a running back. There’s not as much risk on giving a receiver a second contract as a running back a second contract. It’s still more valuable.”
It’s a pass-first league, and that won’t change for a long time.
“When you watch the tape,” an NFL scout said, “Chase, Smith and Waddle are all difference-makers in two or three phases: Receiving, special teams, character.”
But NCAA spread offenses are inflating the supply-and-demand principle.
From just the last three classes of second- and third-rounders, the Broncos’ Courtland Sutton, Jaguars’ D.J. Chark, Titans’ A.J. Brown, Chiefs’ Mecole Hardman and Seahawks’ DK Metcalf already are Pro Bowlers. Washington’s Terry McLaurin and the Cowboys’ Michael Gallup already are 1,000-yard receivers, and the 49ers’ Deebo Samuel and Bengals’ Tee Higgins are knocking on the door.
The Steelers have taken a Day 2 receiver in four straight drafts: JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool.
“Because of the supply situation you get year in-and year-out,” Jeremiah said, “if you have a quality No. 2 receiver, there is no reason to pay him like a No. 1 receiver when you can go get No. 2 receivers in the draft every year.”
