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The long-held thought from experts has been the Browns would take Sam Darnold with the top pick. Increasingly, with the draft starting Thursday, it’s looking as if the experts have been wrong.

The quarterback-starved Browns — who have the first and fourth overall picks — have done due diligence on and given consideration to the top four passers in the draft: Josh Allen, Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen. But Cleveland.com cites sources saying they have narrowed that quartet to a duo, and that pair doesn’t include the USC star Darnold, whom they have cooled on.

The report cites a “well-connected top-level NFL personnel executive” who has said since January’s Senior Bowl that the Browns would take the strong-armed Allen from Wyoming. He isn’t the most accurate quarterback in the field, but has a rocket arm capable of handling cold, windy weather.

And now, it appears Mayfield may have surpassed Darnold as well in the Browns’ eyes. Either that or Cleveland is passing disinformation — perhaps to play the Jets, who covet Mayfield themselves.

Dustin Fox of 92.3 The Fan — who is part of Cleveland’s in-house broadcast team — reported last Friday that the Browns would take either Allen or Mayfield. Three days later, Dan Patrick claimed an NFL scout confirmed as much to him. Granted, smokescreens are rampant, but the hype is building.

Cleveland general manager John Dorsey has a record of drafting for upside, and he’s reportedly liked Mayfield since watching him while he was unemployed this fall. Browns draft consultant Scot McCloughan — a former GM in both San Francisco and Washington — has publicly said he would go with Mayfield, the cocksure Heisman winner from Oklahoma.

“He reminds me of a shorter version of Brett Favre,” McCloughan said on Fox Sports Radio’s “Doug Gottlieb Show” in October. “Tough guy. He can throw it. And he’s very confident, and he’s not afraid whatsoever, whatsoever. He’s a battler. I know saying Brett Favre’s a big name, and I was around him for a while, but this guy has talent.”

That’s high praise — even higher considering McCloughan spent six years with the Hall of Famer in Green Bay.

Meanwhile, Dorsey dismissed concerns over Mayfield’s lack of height (6 feet) or maturity.

“I saw [Mayfield] at Kansas this year, in the OU-Kansas game. You’re darn right he’s a good quarterback, no matter how tall he is. Some would say he’s too short, but I would ask you: How tall is Russell Wilson? How tall is Chase Daniel?” Dorsey told Sports Illustrated. He downplayed Mayfield’s 2017 arrest for public intoxication, crotch-grab at the Kansas sideline and planting of a flag on Ohio State’s Block O.

“Every young man will make a mistake in his life, I bet you,” Dorsey told Cleveland.com. “And I think he’s very remorseful of that mistake and I think he’s moved forward from that, and he’s trying to make himself a better person, going through the process.”

It should be mentioned that the Browns have another reason to talk up Mayfield.

With two top-four picks, they could be trying to induce another team to deal for either pick.

Gang Green desperately need a quarterback, and called Cleveland in an effort to get the No. 1 overall pick before ending up jumping from No. 6 to their current No. 3.

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