The Bills, seeking their first ever Super Bowl title, are one of the best stories in the NFL this season and a sentimental favorite to win it all. But the Chiefs are simply too powerful offensively and too good at home. Patrick Mahomes and his receiving weapons will prove to be too much for the Bills and Allen to keep up with.

Chiefs 31, Bills 27

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce vs. Bills LB Tremaine Edmunds

There will likely be times when Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier will ask Edmunds to cover Kelce one-on-one, particularly when they’re blitzing Mahomes off the outside edge. Kelce might be the most difficult tight end in the league to cover, as evidenced by his 105 receptions for 1,416 yards and 11 TDs. Edmunds is fast and athletic and good in space, but this will be his most daunting assignment. In the teams’ Week 6 matchup, Kelce was held to a modest five receptions for 65 yards, but he had two TDs. He, too, lost a fumble. In the regular season, the Bills allowed 92 receptions for 993 yards and eight TDs to tight ends, according to Pro Football Reference, which were among the highest totals in the league.

Tyreek streak: Tyreek Hill has been virtually unstoppable this season, catching 87 passes for 1,276 yards and 15 TDs in the regular season. He looks like a figure in a video game, with his speed and quickness, and is a big play waiting to happen every time he has the ball in hand, averaging 14.7 yards per catch. He, too, is a threat out of the backfield, having run for 123 yards and two TDs on 13 carries on end-arounds. The Bills did a good job of containing him in the previous meeting (three catches for 20 yards). The Bills; top cover corner is Tre’Davious White, who has three INTs and 11 passes defensed.

Arm & legs: Beware of Josh Allen’s wheels. Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is not afraid to call the number of his quarterback to run the ball, as evidenced by Allen’s 102 carries for 421 yards and eight rushing TDs. The Chiefs defense is not a prolific pass rushing unit, having generated just 32 sacks this season. Their leading pass rushers are defensive linemen Chris Jones (7.5 sacks) and Frank Clark (6). The key for the Chiefs, though, is not necessarily sacks but containing Allen in the pocket and not letting him break free for the long runs.

Key? Diversity: There’s been no question about how good the Buffalo passing offense has been this season. The Bills ranked third in the NFL with an average of 288.8 yards per game. But they’re likely going to need more from the running game to keep Mahomes and the K.C. offense off the field. The Bills didn’t run a designed run play until the second quarter against Baltimore. This won’t work against the Chiefs. So, look for some more Devin Singletary, who led the Bills in rushing with 687 yards in the regular season. The Chiefs ranked 21st in the NFL against the run.

Diggs this: Bills receiver Stefon Diggs will be a problem for the Kansas City. Perhaps the best acquisition of any team this past offseason, Diggs caught 127 passes for 1,535 yards and eight TDs. He has 14 catches on 20 targets for 234 yards and two TDs in Buffalo’s two playoff wins. The Chiefs will counter with a secondary that’s led by All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu, who’s a play-making machine. Mathieu had six INTs in the regular season, one returned for a TD, to go with nine passes defensed and solo tackles. He was a force in the Chiefs’ playoff win over the Browns, not allowing a single positive yard in his 40 coverage snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. He also had an INT.