Comin’ in hot!

My most recent attempt at picking FOX Bet’s Super 6 contest was both a big success and a bit of a disappointment as I nailed the first three questions last Tuesday in the Dallas Cowboys-Baltimore Ravens game, then came oh-so-close on two more, losing one in the final five minutes and the other on the last play of the game. Still, that three-spot was my high-water mark in four tries in this harder-than-it-looks endeavor, and it reversed a trend that had seen me get two, one and then zero questions correct.

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With that, we turn our attention to Thursday night’s game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium — aka the “Death Star” — right off The Strip.

This is a different opening question than all the previous weeks, which figures because it was one of my winners in Ravens-Cowboys as I predicted a Justin Tucker field goal would be the last scoring play of the first half. I’m looking at the odds board first to try to figure this one out. FOX Bet lists Over 26.5 points as a -118 favorite vs. Under 26.5 points, which is even money. So that takes me to the highest option, which I also like because it’s open-ended. I don’t have to thread a needle to fit the total into a small window. A few other stats to consider: The Chargers average 12.7 points in the first half and the Raiders average 13.2 for a sum of 25.9, just a bit low. But if you look at average points allowed in the first half by the two teams, it’s Chargers 13.2 and Raiders 15.1 for a sum of 28.3. On a fast indoor track in perfect conditions there’s no bad weather to get in the way, either. So, 26+ it is.

This was another bullseye for me last week. I correctly predicted the first touchdown of the third quarter would come on a Ravens passing play.  This one is largely dependent on the opening coin toss, as the team that is set up to receive the second-half kickoff obviously has the edge here, and we have no way of knowing which one that will be. I’m expecting a high-scoring game so “No TD” is probably not an option, but “Any other TD” could be live with a pick six, a sack-fumble or kick return. Looking at the FOX Bet props for this game, the top two favorites to score an “anytime” touchdown are Josh Jacobs of the Raiders (-150) and Austin Ekeler of the Chargers (-120). The most unstoppable player on the field is third on the board at -105, and that’s where I’ll stop, with Darren Waller catching a pass from Derek Carr for the first touchdown of the third quarter.

The Raiders’ leading scorer this season is Daniel Carlson with 116 points, and it’s not even close. Next is Jacobs with 54 followed by Waller and Nelson Agholor with 42 apiece. It’s a little closer on the Chargers’ side as Michael Badgley leads with 76 points. Keenan Allen has 50 and no one else has as many as 25. So the odds are way in your favor if you pick a kicker, and Carlson of the Raiders has been a reliable points machine. 

The Over/Under for this game at FOX Bet is 52.5, which is a pretty good place to start because you know a lot of analytics have been put into that number. Combining the spread with the total, you get an expected final score of Raiders 28, Chargers 24.5. I’m thinking it’ll probably be a little lower at 27-24 (Unders have been a good bet in prime-time games this season at 25-15). That score leaves me in the same 50-53 points bucket as the FOX Bet total, so I figure that’s not a bad place to be. 

Rookie Justin Herbert has thrown for 311 or more yards in six of his 12 starts, and the Raiders are a bottom-eight passing defense allowing 256 passing yards per game. As I mentioned earlier, I’d prefer to have an open-ended bucket such as 301+ rather than hope to land in a 10-yard patch, but only if I think the quarterback can get me there (note that the question says “receiving yards” but that’s basically the same as the quarterback’s individual passing yards). I think Herbert can get there. Can Carr and the Raiders beat that? I don’t think so, not with deep threat Henry Ruggs III being placed on the reserve/COVID list.

My handicap of the game is Raiders 27, Chargers 24, which would be a cover for the Chargers at the current 3.5-point spread. I’m comfortable with that score for several reasons. One is the absence of Ruggs, which will make it harder for the Raiders to stretch the field. The others are a few trends courtesy of VSiN’s Josh Appelbaum, who points out that divisional ‘dogs are 38-30 ATS this season, short road ‘dogs +6 or less are 48-28 ATS and prime-time ‘dogs  are 25-15 ATS.