If you played any daily contests in last week’s NFL divisional rounds, chances are, if you had Gabriel Davis in your lineup, you almost certainly won some money. If you didn’t, then you likely didn’t win.
Look, Davis is no scrub — he delivered some nice Christmas gifts with huge December production — but by no means was he a sure bet to crank out big fantasy points last week.
But that’s what he did — eight receptions for 201 yards and four touchdowns, good for 48.1 points at FanDuel (half-PPR) and 52.1 at DraftKings (full PPR). You can’t expect that type of production every week, or even often. But what you can and should expect every week is a player dramatically exceed his expectations. This is as easy to call as declaring one of the studs is going to go belly-up. We know it is going to happen.
The question, as always, is: Which player(s)?
In large DFS tournaments, you have to think contrarian: What can I do that most others won’t do? It is how you separate yourself from the pack. It might make it harder to cross the payline (unpopular options generally are less likely to have big games than more reliable alternatives), but if you do guess right, the payout can be much larger.
For championship week, we lean toward the 49ers roster to find this player. They have the least explosive offense of the final four, thus San Francisco players likely will be used less often — well, anyone other than Deebo Samuel.
We see Elijah Mitchell is banged up, but trending toward playing, but he has gone three straight games with 15.5 PPR points or fewer, and dealing with an ongoing knee problem doesn’t inspire confidence. His backup, Jeff Wilson Jr., has an ankle injury and hasn’t practiced. JaMycal Hasty is more scatback and has topped five touches just twice all season — with six in Week 7 and nine in Week 2. And Trey Sermon hasn’t recorded a stat since Week 11.
Kyle Juszczyk (center) Getty ImagesSo where does that leave the running game the Niners rely on? They’re not going to make Samuel the full-time RB. We’ll gamble Mitchell plays and gets most of the work, but his effectiveness likely will be limited. Considering that, we expect a little more work for Hasty, but not enough to invest in him.
Instead, we’ll gamble on fullback Kyle Juszczyk. He doesn’t get the ball often, and when we project increased use this week, we’re thinking maybe 5-6 touches instead of 2-3 — so not a lot. But we like how he gets used.
When the Niners get near the goal line is when he gets used the most. Of his total rushes this season, 37.5 percent came in the red zone — second highest of the remaining teams behind Travis Kelce. They also throw to him more often than any other RB.
At $4,500 at FanDuel and $4,100 at DraftKings, essentially all we need is a TD. We think he has as good a chance this week as anytime. And the extra cap room will make it possible to get another stud or two into our lineups.
Championship calls
Key picks you should consider for this weekend’s FanDuel and DraftKings contests:
Derrick Henry will be back in the Titans’ backfield this weekend for the first time since October. Getty Images APPatrick Mahomes QB, Chiefs, vs. Bengals (FanDuel $8,800/DraftKings $7,400)
In 10 career playoff games, he has averaged around 25 fantasy points per contest — with just one complete dud. It is worth paying for that type of dependability.
Brandon Aiyuk WR, 49ers, at Rams (FD $5,600/DK $5,000)
The only elite threat on the Niners’ offense is Deebo Samuel (apologies to George Kittle). Can’t imagine the Rams don’t devote defensive game plan to stopping him, which should open up the field for Aiyuk.
Byron Pringle WR, Chiefs, vs. Bengals (FD $5,700/DK $4,300)
Looking for cheap options on the best offense still playing? Pringle averaged about three more in PPR over the past five games than teammate Mecole Hardman.
Tee Higgins WR, Bengals, at Chiefs (FD $6,400/DK $5,700)
The Chiefs put the clamps on Stefon Diggs last week, but were sorched by Gabriel Davis. If K.C. similarly sells out to stop Ja’Marr Chase, we like Higgins’ chances for a big day.
Tyler Higbee Getty ImagesTyler Higbee TE, Rams, vs. 49ers (FD $5,500/DK $3,700)
Van Jefferson is dealing with a knee problem. That could open up a few extra targets for Higbee. Or, for a deeper dive, perhaps even WR Ben Skowronek.
Fantasy Insanity Daily Dose
Daily fantasy lineup suggestion by Drew Loftis
Team DraftKings
Type: Tourney
Salary: $50K
Fee: $12
Entries: 14.7K
Top Prize: $15K
Tot. pot: $150K
QB: Patrick Mahomes=$7,400
RB: Kyle Juszczyk=$4,100
RB: Joe Mixon=$6,800
WR: Brandon Aiyuk=$5,000
WR: Tee Higgins=$5,700
WR: Byron Pringle=$4,300
TE: Tyler Higbee=$3,700
Flex: Cooper Kupp=$8,800
DEF: Rams=$3,200
For late roster changes, follow @NYPost_Loftis on Twitter
Season risked: $168.77
Season winnings: $15



