The fifth of a six-part fantasy draft preview series leading up the NFL season.
It has happened to everyone: You go to a restaurant and they’re out of the dish you want to order. Have a taste for sea bass? Sorry, you might have to settle for the salmon. Itching for king crab legs? Too bad, all gone. It’s either snow crab or a small lobster tail. Want some chicken at KFC? On rare occasions, they might run out of chicken. Gonna have to settle for just a big helping for macaroni and cheese.
These unfortunate circumstances that require you to settle for a second or third or worse choice aren’t exclusive to the food industry. It happens in fantasy football, too. And it happens most often with running backs since there are so few stable options in the draft pool.
Maybe you want to pick a top-shelf RB early, but you’re too late and they’re gone. You want to pick from upsold RBs in rounds 2-3, but you can’t force yourself to reach when better value emerges at wide receiver, tight end or quarterback. Next thing you know, you’re stuck with house-brand options that could relegate you to a zero-RB strategy.
Zero-RB is the ill-defined approach in which you don’t take an RB in the first five or so rounds. Some people are brave enough (or foolish enough, pick your adjective) to enter the draft planning to do this. This is not something we recommend, any more than we would suggest a fatty, bland sirloin in favor of a lean, flavorful filet.
To put it bluntly: Engaging in a zero-RB strategy leaves you needing to hit on multiple middle-to-late-round RBs, when it is hard enough to pick early ones. Plus, you have to ace the waiver wire — spending the right amount on the right guys at the right time, or stumbling into a premier waiver position by chance.
Trey Sermon Getty ImagesThese are low-odds approaches. Never would we intentionally do this. But sometimes, the fantasy football gods dictate that we end up in this situation.
When we find ourselves in an unplanned zero-RB predicament, we start gobbling up RBs as soon as those unavoidable top options at other positions are gone. Assuming this is around round five or six, we are looking first for those who should, or easily could, assume feature roles – like Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin and Travis Etienne. Our next-best options are pass-catching RBs who could assume larger roles – like Chase Edmonds, Kareem Hunt or Kenyan Drake.
We’re willing to reach a round or two early for any, but don’t reach too far too early. Think: If Edmonds and Hunt are gone, we’re not automatically going to check down to Drake, we’re going to wait an extra round or so until it isn’t such a disproportionate draft expense.
Zero-RB also eliminates several handcuff options while raising the value of handcuffs you can acquire – you get two shots at a feature RB on their real-world teams instead of just one.
Thus, grabbing Etienne in the sixth or seventh round means you might want to grab James Robinson a round or two later. Teaming Edmonds with James Conner takes on more value. If you happen upon Raheem Mostert in the seventh or eighth, immediately put rookie Trey Sermon on your radar.
Speaking of Sermon, he is among those the Madman is OK with making a long reach to acquire. His ADP has risen from rounds 10-11 to roughly between rounds 6-7. Considering Mostert’s injury history, it is quite possible Sermon gets a crack at the feature gig, and he might not give it back. We think this draft position is too high, but if you’re going zero-RB,Sermon’s a good option to have.
Something similar holds true for Jets rookie Michael Carter, who we expect to get some heavy volume, if not right off the bat, by at least midseason. We base this view on a couple of obvious factors: There is a new coach, a new QB, a new offense and no incumbent. We don’t expect a team trying to create a foundation for the future to lean on a veteran JAG (just another guy) like Tevin Coleman as its primary RB, when they have a youngster who could have a big future.
There’s Leonard Fournette, who we expect to get the bulk of the Buccaneers’ carries, and also his backfield mate Ronald Jones, who we expect to steal enough of Fournette’s workload to effectively minimize the fantasy impact of both. But if one gets injured? The other stands to be a strong fantasy contributor.
Similarly, but to a lesser degree, are Zach Moss and Devin Singletary. We don’t love either choice, and based on draft value, would rather have Singletary a round or two later than Moss in the ninth. But if trapped in a zero-RB approach, you could do worse than grabbing either one or both.
Think of it this way: Instead of ordering the entrée you want, you are eating at a buffet. Grab as many spoonfuls as you can as quick as you can before they get gone. And hope you like a least a couple of those helpings.




