We’re three weeks into the NFL season, and it’s natural to start drawing conclusions about players in fantasy football. Cooper Kupp and Mike Williams are league winners! Allen Robinson, Robert Woods and Calvin Ridley are busts! While these may seem like hard facts set in stone, remember that it’s a long season, made even longer this year with the added 18th week. Now is a good time to play unrealistic expectations against your league mates, and try to either buy low on underperforming players or sell high on ones whose best days might be behind them.

It’s important to manage the production we’ve seen from these players through three weeks with what was expected preseason in order to make buy low and sell high decisions. Robinson, for example, is way below expectations on targets (just seven per game), catch percentage (has only caught 47.6 percent of his passes) and yards per reception (8.6 is way down from his career average of 13). The Bears offense can’t be this bad all year, and my model says he is averaging 9.38 less PPR fantasy points per week than expected, making him an intriguing buy low. AJ Brown, too, was only catching 36.8 percent of his targets before going down with a hamstring injury (he caught 66 percent last season). He is 8.01 points per game below expectation, and the injury may make him even cheaper if you want to send out a trade proposal.

What about sell highs? Williams and Kupp are performing way above expectations, and while it’s intriguing to try to unload them now, there’s reason to think they can keep it up. Williams’ targets (10.33 per game) have increased dramatically, but they’re still behind Keenan Allen (11 per game), and his yards per reception are around his career averages. This might just be a more electric passing offense with Justin Herbert in his second year, and Williams could be finally be living up to his draft status. Kupp, too, is a benefactor of a much-improved offense around him, though teammate Robert Woods may eventually start to show signs of life and take away from his production. For a sell high, what about Najee Harris? He should still be good this year, but he just got an absurd 19 targets in a game where the Steelers were without target hog Diontae Johnson. Harris is still averaging 3.1 yards per carry and is consistently hit behind the line of scrimmage with a sub-par offensive line in front of him.

Regardless of whether or not you’re settled with your lineup, here is your weekly fantasy four-pack: start, sit, DFS play and bet of the week:

There were plenty of things that could have worked against Beckham in his season debut last week. Not only was it his first live action since tearing his ACL in 2020, the Browns absolutely pummeled the Bears (Chicago had 47 yards of total offense!) and had a positive game script the whole time, ending up with nine more rush attempts than passes. The fact that Beckham still had nine targets (29 percent target share) and five receptions for 77 yards is a great sign, and those numbers should go up against the Vikings – a team that actually can move the ball and put pressure on Cleveland to throw. With Jarvis Landry still injured, Beckham should eat, and could explode in a potentially high-scoring matchup (Vegas’ O/U is 51.5).

Other starts: Devonta Smith (vs. Chiefs), Jakobi Meyers (vs. Buccaneers), Zack Moss (vs. Texans)

It looked like a changing of the guard in the Cowboys’ backfield was on the horizon after Week 2, when Pollard rushed for 38 more yards than Ezekiel Elliott on three less carries and looked far more explosive. It turned out to be somewhat of wishful thinking, as Zeke still got 17 carries, three targets and 70 percent of the snaps in Week 3 (Pollard just got 11 carries, one target and 38 percent of snaps). Perhaps more importantly, Zeke remains the goal line back for Dallas – he has nine attempts inside the red zone compared to just one for Pollard on the season. Pollard remains the more efficient back and could end up taking more of the work as the season goes along, but this week he faces Carolina, which has the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL in terms of both yards allowed and fantasy points allowed to running backs. You may be able to do better this week – but don’t give up on Pollard season-long.

Other sits: Damien Harris (vs. Bucs), Michael Pittman (@ Dolphins), Marquez Callaway (vs. Giants)

This one is a tad risky, considering Aiyuk looked like he could be the bust of the century after Week 1. In that game, he received no targets and no catches in a game where San Francisco scored 41 points against the Lions. The second-year receiver was reportedly in Kyle Shanahan’s dog house over a lackluster preseason and training camp, but he appears to have been let out, with his snap count rising every week (47 percent in Week 1 up to 86 percent in Week 3, close to his 2020 averages). He was up to six targets last week and scored a touchdown, and with the Seahawks coming to town this week, the 49ers will likely have to throw quite a bit to keep up with Russell Wilson and the NFL’s second-best offense in terms of DVOA. At $5,000 on DraftKings, Aiyuk has a chance to return on a basement-dwelling cost. He will also probably have low rostership with the fantasy community out on him, making for a nice contrarian play.

Other lower-priced guys who could have big weeks: Allen Robinson ($5,800), David Montgomery ($5,800), Sam Darnold ($6,000), Rondale Moore ($4,600)

It’s okay, Giants fans. I know your team lost in ridiculous, heartbreaking fashion in both of the last two weeks. But this is the week. The week where they will … cover the spread. And probably still lose. But from a handicapping perspective, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to give Big Blue more than a touchdown in this game. It’s the lowest point total of the week (O/U 42), which implies low scoring on both sides, and it’s always wise to bet on a big underdog in games like that. The Giants are 0-3, but the underlying numbers imply they’re not that bad – they’re actually the 14th best offense in DVOA (Saints are 19th), and Daniel Jones has a significantly better yards per attempt and PFF grade than Jameis Winston. There is an obvious coaching mismatch in favor of the Saints, and not having Blake Martinez against Alvin Kamara could be a problem, but all signs point to New York keeping this one relatively close.

Other bets: Seahawks +3 @ 49ers, Ravens +1 @ Broncos