Sometimes I like to start out the writeup by talking about last week and what we learned and how we did. This is not one of those weeks. Last week was a disaster, and I’m sure that some of you got scared away from plays such as Dwayne Allen, Spencer Ware and DeAndre Hopkins. I understand that but want to inform you that you likely won’t like this Playbook much more.
You see, I have the same approach every single day and every single week. I go into each week with as few ideas as possible. I let the numbers, matchups, salaries, ownership and process lead to me to the promised land. Sometimes I love a player that I am using and other times I hate that player. But I’ll do whatever is necessary to ensure that we are all cashing each and every week. The process never changes because once it does and you start using all different strategies, you’re toast.
This week is interesting because so many quality fantasy players were used up on the Thanksgiving Day games. We lose some real good quarterbacks, running backs and nearly all of the high end tight ends this week. Be sure to keep track of the injuries to players like Jay Cutler (for his wide receivers), Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller, Michael Crabtree and pretty much every Patriots player worth a damn this week.
This is another week in which if you can hit on the correct wide receivers, you are going to win a lot of your contests. The key is who to pay up for and which mid-level wide outs offer us the highest floor (cash games) and ceilings (GPP).
Here is the DFS NFL Playbook for Week 12
FanDuel: $7500
DraftKings: $6700
FantasyAces: $6800
Breakdown: Wilson is fully recovered from the sprained MCL he suffered eight weeks ago. He has averaged 288 yards passing over his past four games and the Buccaneers have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
QB, Tom Brady, Patriots, at Jets
FD: $9100
DK: $7800
FA: $7700
Breakdown: GO PRO
QB, Cam Newton, Panthers, at Raiders
FD: $7800
DK: $6800
FA: $7000
Breakdown: GO PRO
QB, Colin Kaepernick, 49ers, at Dolphins
FD: $7200
DK: $5700
FA: $6300
Breakdown: GO PRO
QB, Marcus Mariota, Titans, at Bears
FD: $8300
DK: $7200
FA: $6250
Breakdown: GO PRO
RB, David Johnson, Cardinals, at Falcons
FD: $9500
DK: $8900
FA: $6650
Breakdown: DJ is the best RB on the board in this slate by a sizable margin. All this guy does is produce massive amounts of fantasy points for his owners. He’s averaging 130 total yards and two TDS over his past two games. The Falcons are the sixth-worst defense in DVOA and have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs.
RB, Jay Ajayi, Dolphins, vs 49ers
FD: $8400
DK: $7600
FA: $5500
Breakdown: GO PRO
RB, Spencer Ware, Chiefs, at Broncos
FD: $7000
DK: $6100
FA: $4950
Breakdown: GO PRO
RB, Rashad Jennings, Giants, at Browns
FD: $6600
DK: $5600
FA: $5000
Breakdown: GO PRO
RB, DeMarco Murray, Titans, at Bears
FD: $8300
DK: $7700
FA: $6300
Breakdown: GO PRO
RB, Melvin Gordon, Chargers, at Texans
FD: $8200
DK: $7000
FA: $5800
Breakdown: GO PRO
RB, Jonathan Stewart, Panthers, at Raiders
FD: $6900
DK: $5000
FA: $4800
Breakdown: GO PRO
RB, Thomas Rawls, Seahawks, at Buccaneers
FD: $7000
DK: $5700
FA: $5000
Breakdown: GO PRO
WR, Doug Baldwin, Seahawks, at Buccaneers
FD: $6800
DK: $6400
FA: $5000
Breakdown: One of my favorite cornerbacks to target against is Buccaneers rookie Vernon Hargreaves who will be matched up against Baldwin for most of Sunday. This game screams another three TDs for Baldwin, but even if that is too great of expectations, his floor makes him great for cash games too.
WR, Michael Thomas, Saints, vs. Rams
FD: $6400
DK: $6600
FA: $5000
Breakdown: GO PRO
WR, Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, at Falcons
FD: $7200
DK: $7000
FA: $4900
Breakdown: GO PRO
WR, Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers, at Raiders
FD: $7000
DK: $6700
FA: $4850
Breakdown: GO PRO
WR, Odell Beckham, Giants, at Browns
FD: $9000
DK: $8800
FA: $6350
Breakdown: GO PRO
WR, Jarvis Landry, Dolphins, vs. 49ers
FD: $7000
DK: $5900
FA: $4800
Breakdown: GO PRO
WR, Julian Edelman, Patriots, at Jets
FD: $6400
DK: $6800
FA: $5100
Breakdown: GO PRO
WR, Cameron Meredith, Bears, vs. Titans
FD: $5900
DK: $4700
FA: $4400
Breakdown: GO PRO
WR, Michael Crabtree, Raiders, vs. Panthers
FD: $6700
DK: $6500
FA: $4950
Breakdown: GO PRO
WR, Tyler Boyd, Bengals, at Ravens
FD: $5600
DK: $4000
FA: $4200
Breakdown: GO PRO
TE, Delanie Walker, Titans, at Bears
FD: $6100
DK: $4900
FA: $4800
Breakdown: Walker and Olsen are by far and away the best TEs on the board in this slate. Walker has practiced in full all week after leaving last Sunday’s game against the Colts early with a knee injury. He’ll once again be Mariota’s favorite receiver against the beat up Bears this week.
TE, Greg Olsen, Panthers, at Raiders
FD: $7000
DK: $5800
FA: $4950
Breakdown: GO PRO
TE, Jimmy Graham, Seahawks, at Buccaneers
FD: $6900
DK: $5300
FA: $5000
Breakdown: GO PRO
TE, Martellus Bennett, Patriots, at Jets
FD: $5500
DK: $4500
FA: $4650
Breakdown: GO PRO
TE, Dennis Pitta, Ravens, vs. Bengals
FD: $4900
DK: $3200
FA: $4200
Breakdown: GO PRO
DST, Giants, at Browns
FD: $4800
DK: $3600
FA: $3300
Breakdown: Any DST against the Browns is good but the Giants have been playing at a very high level and are finally healthy.
DST, Titans, at Bears
FD: $4500
DK: $2800
FA: $2800
Breakdown: GO PRO
DST, Bills, vs. Jaguars
FD: $4800
DK: $3800
FA: $2900
Breakdown: GO PRO
DST, Texans, vs. Chargers
FD: $4600
DK: $2600
FA: $2800
Breakdown: GO PRO
DST, Rams, at Saints
FD: $4200
DK: $2400
FA: $2800
Breakdown: GO PRO
K, Brandon McManus, Broncos, vs. Chiefs
FD: $4600
Breakdown: GO PRO
Jeff Mans is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com and host of the “The Fantasy Alarm Show” on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. To get all you need to learn, play and win daily fantasy sports, get the DFS Playbook PRO from FantasyAlarm.com.




