It’s almost the end of 2021, but COVID-19 is still wreaking havoc on NFL handicappers. Sometimes you make a pick on a Thursday night and find out Sunday morning that your team will be missing about 10 players, a la the Lions in Week 14 in Denver.

This week, we know certain teams have crowded COVID lists — Giants, Browns, Washington, Rams — but don’t quite know what to make of the adjustments that already have been made in the point spreads. Were they too much, too little or just right?

We start this week at MetLife Stadium where the Giants play host to the Dallas Cowboys. On Wednesday, Big Blue announced five COVID positives including WR Kadarius Toney and LB Oshane Ximines. Top safety Xavier McKinney, who is said to be an unvaccinated close contact, is expected to be available.

Coach Joe Judge also said the three magic words that preclude a Giants selection: “Mike Glennon starting.” Interestingly, the line did not budge from Dallas -10.5 despite all of this news, so I don’t feel as if I’m paying a virus premium by taking the Cowboys here.

Using more conventional analysis, the Cowboys are looking to close out the NFC East soon and ascend to a good seed in the NFC playoffs.

Though they have just three wins of 11 points or more this season, those were by 20 over the Eagles, 24 over the Giants and 40 over the Falcons, so they are capable of hammering a severely compromised foe.

(Note: All lines are from Friday’s Bettor’s Guide except for the games that were postponed. Raiders-Browns, Washington-Eagles and Seahawks-Rams were updated).
The pick: Cowboys, -10.5.

Here are some stats you may not know. Even though the Dolphins are 6-7 and the Jets are 3-10, the Jets have more rushing yards (by 64), more passing yards (by 28) and fewer passing yards allowed (by 7). Miami has allowed 446 fewer rushing yards, which is an astounding number but one that might be discounted on Sunday as the Jets expect to get back dynamic rookie Michael Carter. The Dolphins should have the services of RBs Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed, but now their top weapon, WR Jaylen Waddle is missing because of COVID.

Josh Allen wore a walking boot after the Bills’ overtime loss to the Bucs but now says his ankle is feeling better. Figuring this spread is a touch high considering Allen’s condition, the weather (low 30s with winds gusting into the 20s) and the fact Buffalo needs to win by any score, not necessarily by 11 or more.

Have won quite a bit with the Lions as big underdogs, and you know whoever ends up on the field will play hard for Dan Campbell. The Lions expect to get a few players back from last week’s disaster in Denver, including CBs Ifeatu Melifonwu and Bobby Price. The secondary was particularly decimated in that 38-10 loss. Prefer to go with the Cardinals despite the huge spread and absence of DeAndre Hopkins.

Pittsburgh nearly covered last week after trailing 29-0 in Minnesota, losing 36-28 as 3.5-point underdogs. Who are the real Steelers? The thing I keep coming back to is Mike Tomlin’s great record as an underdog (43-22-2 ATS by my unofficial count).

The Jaguars became my Lock of the Week seconds after the firing of egomaniacal, young-woman-grinding, placekicker-kicking Urban Meyer. Expecting the team to be freed from Meyer’s clutches and for Trevor Lawrence to have his best game under interim coach Darrell Bevell.

Feels as if we’re getting the better team and better quarterback with points here. Interesting tidbit: The Bengals have covered in each of their past 10 games when they have traveled 1,000 miles or more, per VSiN.

This is a tough number because though I don’t count the Falcons among the dregs of the NFL, they have lost twice as double-digit ’dogs to the Bucs, and been blown out by the Cowboys and Patriots. Thinking Matt Ryan either keeps this close or snares a backdoor cover.

It was reported late Saturday night that Tyler Huntley will start in place of Lamar Jackson (ankle). I’m not so afraid of Tyler Huntley getting in there, as he’s had a few impressive relief outings, including in last season’s playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is dealing with his own foot problems, and I just like the thought of getting this many points at home with the Ravens.

The Saints are 3-0 SU and ATS in the regular season against the Tom Brady Bucs (though Tampa Bay did win 30-20 in the Superdome in last season’s playoffs). Was looking forward to getting double digits with Sean Payton and a healthy Alvin Kamara. Hopefuly, two out of three won’t be bad as the line and Kamara remain but Payton will miss the game with COVID, to be replaced by Dennis Allen.

This line flipped from Browns -3.5 to Raiders -3.5 when reports came out about the extent of the Browns’ COVID at midweek. It went back almost to its original spot after the game was pushed back from Saturday to Monday, but we still don’t know how many key Browns — from Baker Mayfield to Jarvis Landry, Jedrick Wills and even coach Kevin Stefanski — will be available. Yes, the Browns won a playoff game in Pittsburgh without Stefanski last season, so you can’t write them off, but the toll may be too high this time.

Not the Bears on national TV again! They did give the Packers a good go last week and should have covered the spread three different times. Hopefully Justin Fields will continue to improve. Not interested in laying this number with the Vikings, as each of their past 10 games have been decided by seven points or fewer.

Russell Wilson has had an upswing, and the Rams added some more players to their COVID list. The went up a point in the Rams’ direction after the postponement from Sunday to Tuesday. The Rams had a bad situation last week and they beat the Cardinals on the road. Odell Beckham Jr. and top RB Darrell Henderson are expected to be available, though Jalen Ramsey and Von Miller are in the protocol.

This line quickly steamed upward to Eagles -9.5 on Thursday as the WFT had nine defensive players in the COVID protocol. The number has come down after the game was shifted to Tuesday, and now it appears Washington could have the services of key defensive linemen Montez Sweat and Jonathan Allen. The bigger problem is at quarterback, where both Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen were on the COVID list as of Sunday. Garrett Gillbert, Kyle Shurmur and Jordan Ta’amu are some the names being thrown around for a potential starter against the Eagles, who come in rested off a bye.

Best bets: Jaguars, Bengals, Falcons.
Lock of the week: Jaguars (Locks 8-5 in 2021)
Last week: 10-4 overall, 3-0 Best Bets.
Thursday: Chiefs (W)
Saturday: Patriots (L)