Virtually everyone likes shiny new things. Maybe it’s a car, an appliance, a new pair of shoes. New stuff is fun and exciting.

But it doesn’t always make for a good fantasy option. Rookie quarterbacks, in particular, historically don’t fare well. That has changed a bit in recent years, however, as first-year gunslingers often assume starting duties immediately rather than take time to adapt to a new level of play.

One issue they still encounter, however, is that most teams that plug in a rookie as their starting QB are not very good. Teams without stable or productive QBs are often the ones that pick early in drafts, and often use those picks on QBs. Those teams are more encouraged to start the youngsters – since coaching leashes are shorter, front offices are more eager to see immediate results, the fans want to see them play, etc.

So it is still wise to temper rookie expectations. But as we’ve seen from Justin Herbert to Kyler Murray to Lamar Jackson, or further back to Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton, fantasy success by a rookie isn’t impossible.

So how does this year’s crop stack up? Let’s take a look:

Like Herbert, the Madman thinks it is possible for Lawrence to have a strong first season. He has some decent receivers, which we’ll call the Junior Jags – Laviska Shenault Jr., D.J. Chark Jr., Marvin Jones Jr. – and what should be a decent running game – with breakout bruiser James Robinson and Lawrence’s Clemson teammate, rookie Travis Eitenne Jr. (What’s up with all the Juniors?) We’re comfortable taking Lawrence in the latter half of drafts, but we don’t want him as our primary starter. At best, we would gamble on him to lead a platoon.

The Jags’ WRs aren’t exactly worldbeaters, but they’re better than what the Jets have to offer – with Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder and Keelan Cole leading the way. Plus, Wilson’s college resume doesn’t stack up well compared to Lawrence. Unless you’re in a Superflex or two-QB league, Wilson shouldn’t be on your draft board.

Lance is interesting, because of his raw talent but also because he is raw. Headed into the draft, the common refrain about him was that he had a high ceiling but wasn’t yet ready to lead an NFL offense – he needed time to based on his limited college experience, which was less than Wilson and against weaker competition. Based on his pre-draft scouting report, he would benefit from sitting behind a veteran to begin his career. Then, voila, he lands in San Francisco, where the brittle Jimmy Garoppolo has held the No. 1 spot.

Jimmy G. is pretty average. Yet he was good enough to lead the Niners to the Super Bowl just two seasons ago. He helped create the perfect landing spot for Lance. Garoppolo is good enough to allow the 49ers to be patient with Lance. We expect Jimmy G. will start the season. San Fran’s bye is Week 6, so if the offense is struggling, that seems like the first easy opening to make a change, with Lance entering in Week 7. It is always easier to stick with the incumbent then replace him with the rook based on performance, but it is much harder to do it the other way around.

We’re not drafting Lance in traditional leagues, but we’re going to monitor the 49ers’ performance. If we sense a change on the horizon, and if we need a backup/second QB option, we’ll be ready to pounce on Lance a week or two before we envision him taking the reins. Once he gets in, we do expect him to have a fantasy impact.

Here is a rookie who we think could beat out the veteran. Veteran Andy Dalton is new to the Bears, so he isn’t an incumbent. Unlike Garoppolo, he hasn’t led a team to the Super Bowl. And Fields, unlike Lance, faced top competition at the college level — and excelled. 

We actually would consider Fields as a second QB option. We would take him ahead of Kirk Cousins, Tua Tagovailoa and the like, slotting him in the same tier as Jalen Hurts. But we want confirmation he will be the starter to begin the season before doing so. Otherwise, he falls into the Lance category.

Jones has to unseat Cam Newton, which is virtually certain to happen at some point this season, if not before the season starts. Yet, we have little interest. We don’t particularly care for Jones’ skillset – limited mobility and arm strength. He tracks as a dink-and-dunk type of guy. And without explosive playmakers at WR – Nelson Agholor might be their best, but Jones could struggle to get him the ball downfield – we don’t like his outlook as a fantasy option. We expect the Patriots to be better and win more games, but we don’t expect a treasure trove of fantasy options, and Jones is part of the reason why.