Some things don’t make sense until you look a little deeper. Like, bullies normally struggle with confidence issues, or consuming less social media makes you more social.

Or, the Madman likes 49ers running back Trey Sermon better over the course of a season, but we like Raheem Mostert much more in Week 1.

In fact, we’re gonna like Mostert as long as he stays upright. We just have limited confidence he will be able to do so.

But he is healthy this week, and this week he gets to play the Lions. Detroit didn’t make any earth-shattering defensive upgrades, meaning there is little reason to expect much improvement from a unit that allowed the second-most PPR fantasy points to running backs last season.

So yes, we love Mostert this week. In fact, knowing Saquon Barkley can’t be expected to get a full workload, and facing a stiff Broncos defense, we would start Mostert over Barkley, this week only. Mostert also makes a solid option in daily contests, and he comes pretty cheap ($6,100 at FanDuel, $5,800 at DraftKings).

But Mostert isn’t the only RB we like. Remember how the Lions gave up the second-most PPR points to fantasy RBs? Well, the only team worse was the Texans. Who gets to play the Texans? The Jaguars. Who is now the clear, unencumbered RB1 in Jacksonville? James Robinson. At $5,900 at FanDuel and $6,400 at DraftKings, he is affordable as well.

That is how we start building our first DFS roster of the season, with the pair of Mostert and Robinson. But we still need to find a quarterback-receiver combo to win a large tournament.

For that set, we want to get exposure to high-scoring games. The Browns-Chiefs and Cardinals-Titans have the highest Over/Under totals, and we’re confident there will points aplenty in both. But QB-WR combos for those teams is pricey, or in the Browns case sketchy.

Instead, we look to a game we think the Vegas Totals are sleeping on — Jets at Panthers.

Neither defense was great last year. Both have new QBs, and Carolina’s QB happens to know the Jets’ personnel pretty well. So we hover here for our DFS stack.

Sam Darnold ($6,500 FD, $5,000) and Robby Anderson ($6,200 FD, $5,700 DK) have a connection dating back to New York and could light up their former team. On the other side, rookie Jets QB Zach Wilson looked to heavily favor new Jets WR Corey Davis ($5,800 FD, $4,900 DK). And we’re going to spend up on a defense to get the 49ers ($5,000 FD, $4,200) against what we think is going to be a disastrous Lions offense.

That leaves us with some decent coin still to spend before we reach our cap. At FanDuel, we can tap into Cards-Titans by adding DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200 FD, $7,800 DK) and get access to Browns-Chiefs by filling our tight end spot with Travis Kelce ($8,500 FD, $8,300 DK).

You will already have run out of money at DraftKings trying to do this, but on FanDuel, you can still afford to add A.J. Brown in the Flex.

And that’s how we’re kicking off 2021. 

Lamar Jackson QB, Ravens, at Raiders (FanDuel $8,600/DraftKings $7,700)

It wasn’t COVID-19 that wiped out the Ravens backfield, it was torn ACLs. With just rookie Ty’Son Williams, Trent Cannon and maybe Le’Veon Bell or Devonta Freeman off the street, expect Jackson to anchor the running game.

Jalen Hurts QB, Eagles, at Falcons (FD $7,600/DK $6,400)

We’re not convinced the Falcons fixed their secondary, which gave up the second-most fantasy points to QBs last season.

Phillip Lindsay RB, Texans, vs. Jaguars (FD $5,200/DK $4,700)

The Jags gave up more than 30 PPR points per game to running backs. Lindsay is more of an option for DFS than seasonal leagues.

Tyler Higbee TE, Rams, vs. Bears (FD $5,400/DK $3,900)

Chicago struggled against tight ends last year. New Rams QB Matthew Stafford historically likes to target TEs near the goal line.

Justin Herbert QB, Chargers, at Washington (FD $7,600/DK $6,700)

We’re a bit wary of going against the Washington defense, which should feature a ferocious pass rush this year and is solid elsewhere as well.

Josh Jacobs RB, Raiders, vs. Ravens (FD $6,800/DK $5,800)

Jacobs’ lack of contribution in the passing game doesn’t yield good fantasy numbers when his team is trailing. We expect the Raiders will be trailing.

David Montgomery RB, Bears, at Rams (FD $7,100/DK $5,700)

We have a healthy fear of the Rams’ defense heading into this season as well. A fearsome front could make life difficult on the Chicago ground game.

Odell Beckham Jr. WR, Browns, at Chiefs (FD $6,500/DK $5,400)

Though the matchup is tempting, we want to see Beckham show he deserves to be in our lineup before we plug him in.

Site: FanDuel

Slate: Sun. main (13 games)

Type: $3 tourney

Top prize: $1M

Pot: $3.5M

QB: Sam Darnold ($6,500)

RB: Raheem Mostert ($6,100)

RB: James Robinson ($5,900)

WR: DeAndre Hopkins ($8,200)

WR: Robby Anderson ($6,200)

WR: Corey Davis ($5,800)

TE: Travis Kelce ($8,500)

Flex: A.J. Brown ($7,800)

DEF: 49ers ($5,000)

QB: Sam Darnold ($6,500)

RB: Raheem Mostert ($6,100)

RB: Christian McCaffrey ($10,400)

WR: Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,800)

WR: Jerry Jeudy ($5,500)

WR: DK Metcalf ($7,700)

TE: Dallas Goedert ($5,900)

Flex: A.J. Brown ($7,800)

DEF: Broncos ($4,100)