The Bills are 8-3 and the Cowboys are 6-5, so to many it looks as if the better team is getting points in the late-afternoon Thanksgiving Day game in Arlington, Texas. And not just a few points, a lot of points, almost a touchdown’s worth.

This is one of those lines that should make bettors say, “Hmm.” Two-thirds of the bets are on the Bills, but the line has barely dipped from an opener of Cowboys -7. If a line looks too good to be true, there’s usually a reason why.

Buffalo’s record features just one win over a team that’s currently over .500 (the 6-5 Titans). The Bills have beaten the Giants, Redskins, Bengals, Broncos and twice the Dolphins. The Cowboys’ schedule isn’t much better, but a 37-10 win over the Eagles shows what they’re capable of doing when all goes right.

One other angle potentially in Dallas’ favor is the firestorm around coach Jason Garrett. If anyone could use a big statement win, it’s Garrett, and he figures to put everything he has into this one in front of the nation.

The pick: Cowboys, -6 ¹/₂.

Chicago Bears (-3) over DETROIT LIONS: The Lions just lost to a previously 1-9 Redskins team, are 1-7 since late September, and will start third-strong rookie QB David Blough. It was encouraging to see Mitchell Trubisky run for a touchdown against the Giants. If he can keep it together, the Bears defense can carry the day here.

New Orleans Saints (-7) over ATLANTA FALCONS: This line has been toggling between the full seven and 6¹/₂. It would pay to shop, depending on which way you’re going. Falcons won 26-9 in the Superdome in Week 10. Looking for Drew Brees and the Saints to avenge their one loss in the last nine games in a big way.

Green Bay Packers (-6¹/₂) over NEW YORK GIANTS: Aaron Rodgers struggled in recent losses against the No. 1 (49ers) and No. 4 (Chargers) pass defenses in the NFL. Things should be a lot different against the Giants, who rank 26th in that regard.

New York Jets (-3¹/₂) over CINCINNATI BENGALS: Many expect the visitors to pull one of their patented “That’s so Jets” moments. But I’m just looking at the math here. The Jets have scored 34 points three weeks in a row. The 0-11 Bengals have scored 17 points or fewer in all but two games.

Washington Redskins (+10) over CAROLINA PANTHERS: In their out-of-nowhere win over the Lions, the Redskins had a fiasco when Dwayne Haskins missed the final play because he was taking a selfie with fans. Not thrilled to ride with them, but it’s a large spread on a game with a low total and a windy forecast.

San Francisco 49ers (+6) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: This line jumped from -4¹/₂ to -6 after the Ravens’ demolition of the Rams in Los Angeles on Monday night. It’s a short week for Baltimore off a cross-country trip, and the Niners have a fast, physical defense that can turn this into a heavyweight street fight.

Tennessee Titans (+2¹/₂) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Derrick Henry is rampaging for the Titans and Marlon Mack is out again for the Colts. Have a lot of respect for Indy coach Frank Reich and can see him finding a way to scratch out a victory, but also believe this modest spread could factor into the betting outcome.

Philadelphia Eagles (-9¹/₂) over MIAMI DOLPHINS: Miami had a mini-peak with consecutive wins in Weeks 9 and 10, but lost twice by 17 points after that. Eagles are 5-6, but start a very easy part of their schedule. Their playoff push begins with a runaway.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: The Bucs rank higher than the Jags both offensively and defensively. The problem is minus-10 in turnover ratio. If we get the Good Jameis Winston, the one who lights up the scoreboard and doesn’t give the ball away, then we get the better team plus a point.

Cleveland Browns (-2) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Pittsburgh will be out to avenge the 21-7 loss at Cleveland on Nov. 14, a game remembered for the Myles Garrett-Mason Rudolph incident, which overshadowed how thoroughly the Browns dominated. Rudolph will sit in favor of Devlin Hodges here.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (+3) over Los Angeles Rams: It’s a short week for the Rams after their 45-6 home emasculation by the Ravens. It’s easier to say they’ll bounce back than it will be for them to do so. LA is in an offensive rut that included a 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh and a 17-7 win over the Bears, which was 10-7 late in the fourth quarter.

Oakland Raiders (+10) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: KC won 28-10 in Oakland in Week 2, most of the damage coming late in the second quarter when the Chiefs scored three touchdowns in a little more than five minutes. Raiders mailed in the last 25 minutes of the blowout loss to the Jets. If they were looking ahead to this game, now is their chance to play it.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) over DENVER BRONCOS: Philip Rivers threw four interceptions and the Chargers still had a chance to beat the Chiefs in Mexico City. That suggests this offense can really move the ball and is ready for a breakout game against a lower-level team. Sunny with upper 30s temperatures shouldn’t hinder the warm-weather Bolts too much.

HOUSTON TEXANS (+3) over New England Patriots: The Patriots offense hasn’t been what we’re used to, even though they’re still beating good teams. Deshaun Watson has had some good games versus the Patriots, losing 36-33 and 27-20 in Foxborough the past two years.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Seattle has a 9-2 record, but is just 1-4 against the spread at home this season. The Vikings, who normally worry me on the road, have won three of their last four as visitors, and just missed in KC in that one loss. At a full-field-goal spread, feeling some value with a red-hot Kirk Cousins.

Best bets: Chargers, Packers, Eagles.
Lock of the week: Chargers (Locks 4-8 in 2019).
Last week: 6-8 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.