PHOENIX — The knee-jerk conclusion you are allowed to reach for Super Bowl LVII is that the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, and the Eagles do not.
That Mahomes will be the best player on the field — even with that annoying high ankle sprain — and find a way to win in the fourth quarter, the way he did against the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV.
No one should dispute that the Mahomes-Andy Reid tandem deserves the edge over the Jalen Hurts-Nick Sirianni tandem … not to say that Julian Love could have coached these Eagles.
And yet the Eagles are 1.5-point favorites.
And ever since we knew this matchup, I have been as conflicted as Donna Kelce.
I’m less conflicted today.
Exhaustive film study — well, not exhaustive, a lot of Baldy’s Breakdowns — has convinced me that the Eagles are the better team.
The more complete team.
The more physical team.
One of those edgy Bill Parcells NFC East teams that would gladly play the game in a parking lot.
Post columnist Steve Serby has looked into his Crystal Ball, and predicts we’ll see a triumphant Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and a despondent Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LVII. NY Post Photo IllustrationThey are better in the trenches and their quarterback has better weapons.
Jalen Hurts has evolved into a big-game dual threat and a great leader of men who is on a mission.
He and Miles Sanders have arguably the best offensive line in the league blocking for them.
It will give the Eagles a chance to control the clock and keep Mahomes on the sideline.
The Eagles recorded 70 sacks, third-best in league history, and when Mahomes lost to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV, his offensive line betrayed him. Reid and general manager Brett Veach moved swiftly to upgrade it, but these Birds of a feather sack together. Beware Haason Reddick (3.5 sacks in the playoffs).
Mahomes isn’t armed with a formidable rushing attack. Isiah Pacheco, the rookie out of Rutgers, may run angry, but he’ll be running into Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave, not to mention Man Mountain rookie DT Jordan Davis, Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph. Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy might have been encouraged by the Commanders (49-152) gashing the Eagles run defense in November only if GM Howie Roseman hadn’t shrewdly and immediately plugged the leak.
Don’t be surprised if Jerick McKinnon (55-512-9 TDs receiving) out of the backfield serves as a de facto running game against that Fly, Eagles, Fly pass rush.
Patrick Mahomes speaks to the media ahead of the Super Bowl. USA TODAY SportsThis is a game in which Mahomes will miss Tyreek Hill, and if Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon doesn’t double TE Travis Kelce (21-176-3 TDs in the playoffs), he should report immediately to the blue tent for a concussion evaluation. Mecole Hardman is out, and fellow receiver Kadarius Toney lasting an entire game without pulling something would be a prop bet worth loading up on, something like Over/Under 15 snaps. Don’t expect Marquez Valdes-Scantling to enjoy back-to-back 100-plus-yard games. JuJu Smith-Schuster has three catches for 36 yards in the postseason.
Eagles cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry ain’t chopped liver by the way, either.
And a mea culpa here: I picked the Giants and 49ers to beat the Eagles in the playoffs.
There is, of course, a scenario in which the Eagles fall behind and Hurts will need to rely on his right arm. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has an inexperienced secondary that could be exploited by A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert if Hurts is on his game. Spags will need a monster game from DT Chris Jones, which of course is possible. But he doesn’t have enough monsters.
There is also a scenario in which Mahomes falls behind and is not Houdini, and that would be a veritable death sentence with the Eagles’ pass rushers pinning their ears back for what likely would be a feeding frenzy.
The Chiefs — granted, with a hobbled Mahomes — looked mortal against the Jaguars and Bengals.
Jalen Hurts has evolved into a duel-threat. USA TODAY SportsThe Eagles showed sheer dominance against the Giants and 49ers.
It remains somewhat difficult for me to imagine Mahomes losing this game for the second time in three years. Of course, it was difficult for me to imagine John Elway losing three Super Bowls before winning back-to-back and riding off into the sunset.
Mahomes is The Great Eraser. He had a better 2022 (41 TDs, 12 INTs) than 2021 with Hill (37 TDs, 13 INTs).
The Crystal Ball is flashing that he has a bit too much to erase this time.
Spine-tingling game. Magic from Mahomes. Hurts So Good.
Eagles 30, Chiefs 27
