(Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.):

You simply can’t give Tom Brady enough credit for sizing up the situation at hand and positioning himself as favorably as possible for this 2020-21 NFL season. As a result of reaching his arrangement with the Bucs, Brady wound up as the first quarterback to play on his squad’s home grounds in the history of the event.

Brady also has found himself as the quarterback for the side boasting the league’s top statistical defense against the run, with Tampa Bay’s front yielding a stingy 81 yards per game. This is nice work if you can get it, and it has left Brady as field general of the participating side, which leads the entire league in short yardage rushing offense. But for all that … the Chiefs are still favored, in the field goal-plus neighborhood. There are multiple significant reasons for this.

With six wins in his nine Super Bowl appearances, Brady is the most successful QB in league history, by acclimation. But today, the Greatest of All Time must deal with arguably the Greatest of the Present Time, Kansas City’s 24-year-old Patrick Mahomes. A constant cause of regret for any of those teams who drafted ahead of the Chiefs in the 2017 draft — and as astounding as Mahomes has been this past regular season (with their only loss their Arrowhead shortcoming against Kansas City’s eternal pestilence, the Raiders), he has outdone himself in these playoffs, managing to engineer scores from all sustained drives, save one.

Mahomes is meaningfully aided and abetted by the redoubtable Travis Kelce, certainly one of the great tight ends of our age. He has followed up his 11 seasonal touchdowns with three more in the postseason, and he performs at levels of distraction which make everyone else around him more effective.

Behind the likes of Mike Remmers, Andrew Wylie and others who have stepped up and made the most of their opportunities on the offensive line, the Chiefs have advanced behind coach Andy Reid, a proven producer who has justified all confidence shown in him in the wake of last season’s sparkling, relentless win over the stubborn 49ers. On the other side of the ball, it’s broad public knowledge that the most effective way to harass Brady is to apply maximum pressure up the middle. You have to respect the talent at hand, but would be surprised if the Chiefs come up short here.

We’ve found ourselves on the right side of Supers in this price range, more often than not, but this market’s triple-tight, featuring Brady catching points (an embarrassment of riches!) — and the serious injury issues along the Chiefs’ line, with tackle Eric Fisher chief among them. Check the status of center Daniel Kilgore and WR Demarcus Robinson as they race to clear COVID-19 protocol.

On the Bucs’ side, defensive tackle Steve McLendon is a major concern, and keep both eyes on safety Jordan Whitehead (about whom we’re not wildly optimistic), as well as linebackers David Lavonte and Jason Pierre-Paul. Caution is the byword. Look before you leap — and be aware that most injury “surprises” are likely to be positive, regarding prospects for borderline “doubtful” players.

We’re aware that Brady plus points is a major, throbbing temptation, but on the favorite’s side, Reid — long-frustrated in his quest for the NFL’s top prize — finally caught a tailwind with last season’s sustained development of Mahomes when they proceeded to win going away with that snappy late-stages rally against the Niners which secured the championship hardware.

No way we’re counting Brady out prematurely, but he’s going to have to generate an epic performance to overcome the otherworldly Mahomes, who has a chunky chance to enable Reid to capture his 10th consecutive league game contested within the borders of the state of Florida. Unless any rain comes in sustained measure during critical stages of the game, a slick field figures to benefit Kelce and his pals, who will know precisely where they’re going with their pass patterns.

Chiefs: 35-27.
Championship Sunday: Sides: 1-1; Over/Unders: 2-0.
Playoffs: Sides: 8-4; Over/Unders: 7-5.