It’s easy to get caught up in the mountain of prop bets during Super Bowl 2021. Many sportsbooks are offering over 700 bets, some as wacky as the color of Gatorade poured on the winning coach’s head. (For the record, last year, when the Chiefs won, it was orange.)

One of the most consistently predictable props, however, is the Super Bowl MVP winner. Since 2010, eight of the 11 winners have been quarterbacks. The three non-QB winners were Seahawks linebacker Malcolm Smith, who had a 69-yard pick-six and a fumble recovery in Super Bowl XLVIII; Broncos linebacker Von Miller, who had two strip-sacks in Super Bowl 50 (in a game where Peyton Manning had 141 yards and no touchdowns); and Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman, who caught 141 of Tom Brady’s 262 passing yards in Super Bowl LIII (Brady also had no touchdowns).

Put simply, if a non-quarterback is to win, the winning quarterback has to have a bad game, or a position player has to have a game so spectacular it’s impossible to ignore. And sometimes that’s not even enough. In Super Bowl XLII, when the Giants upset the then-undefeated Patriots, Eli Manning won the MVP despite his team only scoring three points in the first three quarters, while Justin Tuck’s two sacks helped the Giants defense shut down a previously unstoppable offense.

Which is why Patrick Mahomes to win the Super Bowl MVP (-118) is one of the most valuable bets on the board.

The Chiefs are favored in the game, and while they’re not exactly heavy favorites – the point spread is -3 – they’re still -162 on the moneyline. More times than not, Kansas City wins this game, which would set Mahomes up to win his second Super Bowl MVP. The market price for that award is a nearly 50-cent discount on the moneyline. Can you script a scenario where the Chiefs win and the 25-year-old phenom doesn’t take home the hardware?

The closest example might have been exactly one year ago, when the Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. Mahomes struggled for a good chunk of the game, throwing two interceptions, but Kansas City scored three touchdowns in the final six minutes to win 31-20. He finished with 286 yards and a passer rating of 78.1. Meanwhile, running back Damien Williams had 133 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns, including a dagger game-winner with under two minutes remaining. And yet, Mahomes was still voted MVP.

The next-closest example might be the first game the Chiefs and Bucs played against each other this season, back on Nov. 29. Kansas City WR Tyreek Hill had one of the best games for a receiver in NFL history, logging 269 yards and three TDs (with over 200 of those yards coming in the first quarter). If that game was the Super Bowl, it’d be hard to argue against giving the award to Hill. But one has to imagine Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Todd Bowles will do everything in his power to slow the speedy receiver down, which should make Mahomes spread the ball around.

The Chiefs’ offense has been unstoppable in these playoffs. With Mahomes on the field (he missed much of the second half against the Browns due to injury), the Chiefs have come away from exactly three drives without scoring points. In one, kicker Harrison Butker missed a 33-yard field goal. In another, Mahomes took a knee to wind down the clock in their win over the Bills. That reflects directly on the quarterback, inarguably the best player in the sport right now. If Kansas City wins, which is likely, it’s hard to see anyone else walking away with the hardware.

And if you think the Buccaneers will win, bet Tom Brady to win the award (+190) instead of the moneyline (+135). For Tampa Bay to pull off the upset, it’s going to need a spectacular offensive showing to match the Chiefs’ firepower. If 43-year-old Brady manages to pull that off, securing his seventh ring in the process? You better believe he’ll walk away with his fifth MVP.