Before the college football season kicked off in 2018, Justin Herbert was the top-rated quarterback on ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr.’s big board.

Mock drafts by the end of the season had the Oregon product pegged as a top-five pick, with plenty of projections continuing to label him as the top quarterback in the 2019 draft class — until he announced he was staying in school for his senior year.

Nearly 16 months later, Herbert may still well be a top-five pick, or perhaps top-six. He won’t be the first quarterback taken Thursday night, but the risk he took by not entering last year’s draft doesn’t appear to have hurt him — even if it hasn’t exactly stirred up the hype around him, either.

“I wanted to come back to finish out with the guys that we came in with,” Herbert said at the NFL combine. “Talked about going 4-8 my freshman year and a group of seniors that stuck through it and ended up going 12-2 and fell short of the college football semifinal but won the Rose Bowl and these were things that we set out to do. Wanted to play with my younger brother [freshman tight end Patrick Herbert], wanted to finish school, wanted to become a better leader, better player. These are all things I feel like we accomplished this year.”

As a senior, Herbert — whose measurements are the kind NFL executives dream about at 6-foot-6 and 236 pounds, with the arm strength and athleticism to match it — completed 66.8 percent of his passes for 3,471 yards, 32 touchdowns and six interceptions. All of those numbers are an improvement from his junior year.

While questions about his passing under pressure remain, Herbert helped himself out at the Senior Bowl, taking home MVP honors and being named the practice player of the week.

“When he went to the Senior Bowl, he showed he could go through his progressions, he could throw with better anticipation, and he did make throws, even in the game, on the move outside the pocket,” Kiper said on a recent ESPN conference call. “I think Justin’s kind of a developing player. You’re seeing glimpses of what could happen when it all comes together for him.”

Herbert’s lack of consistency may be the biggest reason for the inconsistency in terms of his evaluation. ESPN’s grading service has Herbert ranked as the 27th best prospect in the draft class. Kiper has him rated No. 10 on his big board while Todd McShay slotted him in at No. 25. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, meanwhile has Herbert as his 20th best prospect in the class.

But because he hasn’t been through the kind of injuries Tua Tagovailoa has, Herbert could end up getting picked before the Alabama quarterback, with the Dolphins at No. 5 and Chargers at No. 6 seen as prime candidates. The Patriots also loom, as they are said to “love” Herbert, one GM told NBC Sports’ Peter King.

Herbert didn’t turn out to be the Heisman candidate he was once projected to be, but the biology major did leave Oregon with the “Academic Heisman” — the William V. Campbell Trophy. He will be the fourth quarterback to win it before getting drafted in the first round, joining Peyton Manning, Chad Pennington and Tim Tebow. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.

“I think anywhere that I get drafted would be special,” Herbert said. “I want to play this game as long as I can and in doing that I’m going to do everything I can to do that so I’m going to get better, learn and continue to play football.”