When identifying a true fantasy football bust, you need to look past the routine injuries owners curse every week, focus on where a player was taken in most drafts and whether he returned a fair and equivalent value. It is easier to spot them when they are taken in the first few rounds, but in the middle rounds, you have to dig deeper for the analysis. That’s why so many running backs and wide receivers make the annual “busts lists.” Tight ends may be tougher to identify, but they can be just as big a culprit as any running back you want to blame for a poor year.
The biggest bust at the tight end position this season has to be Tampa Bay’s O.J. Howard and, unfortunately, that falls on the analysts more than it does the person who drafted him in fantasy. Entering this season, most analysts rated Howard as an emerging, top tight end. His 2018 season saw some decent growth, both in his raw statistics and his role with the team. Another step forward meant close to double-digit touchdowns and, with hope, an 800-yard season. That made him a fifth or sixth-round target. But just a glance at his current totals of 459 yards and one touchdown shows you how bad it has been.
The problem for fantasy owners, however, was the analysis was wrong. If you drafted Howard that early, you were misled. Howard’s growth in Tampa Bay was due to his usage by then head coach Dirk Koetter and offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Under their guidance, he was an emerging star. No one took into account Tampa Bay’s coaching change to Bruce Arians or how he, dating back to his days in Arizona, used his tight ends more for blocking than pass-catching.
Howard’s season began on the wrong foot as he struggled to find his way in Arians’ blocking scheme. He saw just nine targets through the first three games and fantasy owners who drafted him were left scratching their heads. It wasn’t until Arians came out and said Howard was having problems with his blocking assignments that fantasy owners started to make the change to any other warm body at the position.
Meanwhile, over in Atlanta, where Koetter was the new offensive coordinator, Austin Hooper took a massive step forward in his role with the team and, subsequently, his production for fantasy. He averaged just over eight targets and 72.6 receiving yards per game through the first five weeks. Through five weeks in Tampa, Howard averaged just under three targets and 28.2 receiving yards per game.
Hindsight is obviously 20/20 and if you fell for the early trap this year, there was nothing you could do unless you identified it yourself or had some tight end whisperer helping you along. But what this should do is keep you on your toes for next season. Coaching changes matter. New offensive systems implemented matter. If you can identify the changes in the offseason, it will be less likely you will fall for a bust like O.J. Howard.
Howard Bender is the VP of operations and head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays at 4 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy sports advice and NFL player rankings.
