The suspense heading into free agency on Saturday is not centered around the content of the Islanders’ plan, but whether or not they can pull it off.
Any lingering questions over the philosophy here was put to bed by Lou Lamoriello on Thursday in Nashville, as it was by Lamoriello earlier in June, as it was at the trade deadline, as it was in last summer’s free agency, as it was when … you get the picture.
“We still have a desire to sign our own [players],” Lamoriello said following the conclusion of the draft. “But they have to be willing to do the same. We’ll certainly do whatever we can to make us better.”
Yes, the plan is still to — all together now — run it back, though it will require some cooperation from Scott Mayfield, Pierre Engvall and Semyon Varlamov in order to happen.
In dealing away Josh Bailey, the Islanders gave themselves $10,336,667 to work with going into July 1.
If Simon Holmstrom were to begin the season at AHL Bridgeport — a not-altogether-impossible thought given he is still on a two-way deal and the minors is a far easier path to playing time if the Isles bring the band back together — that can be boosted to a perfectly round $11.2 million.
Lou Lamoriello spoke on the Islanders’ “desire” to sign their own players. APZach Parise, the team’s fourth unrestricted free agent, is still weighing retirement as an option, but if he plays, it will be for the Islanders and almost certainly on the minimum salary.
Coming off an ACL tear in December, a bridge deal for restricted free agent Oliver Wahlstrom in the range of $1 million average annual value seems the most likely outcome.
If that is what happens, the Islanders will have between $9.425 million and $8.56 million to spend among the other three, depending where Holmstrom starts the season.
The calculus there is not that different from what it’s been for months on end.
To make the math work, the Islanders will need a combination of market factors (namely the flat cap) and a desire to stay on Long Island to cause at least one — if not more — of Mayfield, Engvall or Varlamov to accept a lower salary than he might want.
Mayfield and Varlamov have both been public enough about their desires to stay that it is easy to see them doing so.
Varlamov has been completely accepting of a backup role to Ilya Sorokin, and Mayfield of whatever role the Islanders want him to play at a given time.
But when push comes to shove, would Varlamov prefer to get more than 22 starts?
Would Mayfield, one of exceedingly few capable right defensemen on the market, turn down a salary in the $4 million range on the open market if the Islanders can’t match it, after having spent the last five seasons on a team-friendly deal already?
Bringing back Scott Mayfield — among other Islanders free agents — will require some help. APEngvall, acquired ahead of the trade deadline before becoming an integral piece of the second line, is more of a wild card.
It’s hard to see someone who had been on Long Island for just a couple months acquiescing to a discounted salary, and he has not said the same things as Mayfield and Varlamov about how much he’d love to be back that made you wonder about the possibility.
With the salary cap set to rocket in the summers of 2024 and 2025, though, now is the wrong time to be cashing in.
Pierre Engvall is the Islanders’ free agency wild card. Corey Sipkin for NY PostEven with his strong play down the stretch for the Islanders, Engvall finished the season with all of 30 points — 22nd among forwards in a free-agent class that is widely considered weak.
He should command more than the $2.25 million he earned last season, but the lack of cap space around the league will depress his value the same as everyone else.
Maybe there would be some appeal in a short-term offer from the Islanders that allows Engvall to play top-six minutes, show his value, then hit the market when more teams have room to maneuver.
If one or more of those three walk, things will venture into the unknown.







