RALEIGH, N.C. — Turns out, the equation here is pretty simple.

If the Islanders can’t break out of their own zone, they will not win.

If the Islanders struggle on special teams, they will not win.

Forget about Mathew Barzal’s return, forget about the goalie and forget about everything else.

Breakouts and special teams — those were the enduring lessons in a tight 2-1 Game 1 loss to Carolina on Monday night at PNC Arena in which the ’Canes controlled the game, struck twice at five-on-four and held the Islanders to four shots in eight minutes of power-play time.

“We played some good hockey, it’s a 2-1 hockey game, playoff style,” Islanders captain Anders Lee said. “Just one of those nights, we needed one from the power play.”

The Islanders got their fourth and final power-play chance with a hair under five minutes to go in the game and a chance to tie.

It came and went without a shot on net.

And, despite a push at six-on-five, that turned out to be one of the operative moments in the loss.

The league’s best penalty kill was, indeed, just that, forcing the Islanders out of the zone again and again.

There are no secrets this time of year, and this was Carolina doing what Carolina does.

The Hurricanes leveraged their speed advantage into a suffocating forecheck all over the ice.

And the Islanders — who are crucially missing Alexander Romanov on the back end — did not have a great answer in transition.

“We gotta move the puck a little quicker,” coach Lane Lambert said of a game where the Hurricanes had 61.7 percent of the five-on-five scoring chances, per Natural Stat Trick. “I talk about it all the time, they don’t give you a lot of time and space. That’s their M.O. They’re up on you, so you gotta move quickly in transition.”

It was not just the two Islanders defensemen making their playoff debut — Sebastian Aho and Samuel Bolduc — who seemed overwhelmed at times, either. Scott Mayfield, Noah Dobson and Adam Pelech all turned the puck over in ways that veterans cannot this time of year.

“I think we just gotta find a better way to be a little more clean, execute some passes,” Dobson said. “It’s gonna be like that all series. We’re just gonna have to find a way to grind through it.”

Carolina’s first strike came just 3:47 into the series, five seconds after playoff debutant Hudson Fasching was sent off for tripping Jaccob Slavin.

Carolina’s Sebastian Aho wired a one-timer from the right circle off a faceoff and the Islanders, who did not get to their game nearly enough in the opening 20 minutes, were suddenly staring at a deficit.

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Stefan Noesen made it 2-0 similarly early in the second period, tipping Brent Burns’ shot in after Ryan Pulock’s slashing penalty.

Pulock did quickly make up for the error by trickling a shot past Antti Raanta, who slow-motion fanned on a save attempt to let the Islanders back within a goal.

Once play settled down again, though, the Islanders again struggled to get to Carolina’s net, or to convert on four power-play chances of their own.

“We just gotta stick with it and get one next game,” Dobson said.

Ilya Sorokin did provide the expected advantage in net with 35 saves, but the Islanders will need to give him more support than this.

Raanta recovered well from his mistake, twice coming up big early in the third period with saves on Anders Lee and Pierre Engvall in tight.

This was the formula Carolina followed in three straight regular-season victories over the Islanders, the last one being just a few weeks ago by a 2-1 score in this same building.

Game 1 was a faster, higher-intensity, more physical version of the same.

The Islanders struck a relatively optimistic tone afterward and it’s true that they could have walked out with a victory had a few plays gone the other way.

This was not a full-on beatdown but a methodical win by Carolina.

“I thought there was certainly positives in the game,” Lee said. “We certainly had some looks in the third period and with our goalie pulled. I thought we got better as the game went on.”

Even so, the Islanders cannot win hockey games in their own zone.

They cannot win them in the penalty box.

And they cannot win them with this kind of power play.

Not at any time of year, and certainly not now.